BIG NFL PLAY INSIDE>>>

The DENVER BRONCOS...

Please excuse me if I am unimpressed with the KC Chiefs last two blowout victories. In these games they outscored their opponents by a combined score of 98-10. However, one must remember that the teams they destroyed are downright AWFUL. For those who don’t recall, they crushed the Cardinals and Rams at home…two teams are far from playoff contenders. The combined record of the Chiefs last three opponents is 14-25…a .359 win percentage.

On the flip side, the Broncos have played their last two games on the road against teams with a legitimate shot at post season play. Although they lost their last 3 games overall, they only lost by 3, 3 and 6 respectively. No blowouts here, only hard fought games that were frustrating losses. The combined record of the Broncos last three opponents is 23-16…a .667 win percentage.

In Denver everybody has something to prove. Specifically, the players need to prove something to their coaches. Just this week, Shanahan commented that Trevor Pryce has got to start making plays. "Obviously, I want him to pick up his game - enough said," Shanahan said.

Also, defensive line coach Jacob Burney said a number of players, including starting defensive tackle Lionel Dalton were not giving 100 percent on every play. When Dalton was told Shanahan had singled out Pryce for public criticism, Dalton said, "Oh, I didn't know that. That's scary. "When the head coach calls you out, that means it's time to pick up your game and evidently you're not doing something right. Usually your position coach tells you. But when the head man tells you, it means you're really not putting forth the effort." Shanahan said that's exactly why he called out Pryce, his highest-paid defensive player.

I expect these players to put forth a sold effort this week.

Of course, there are a few trends that I like here…

* KC is 7-21 ATS after playing 3 straight games as a favorite since 1992.

* Denver is 10-2 ATS off a road loss over the last 3 years.

* Denver is 13-4 ATS after having lost 3 out of their last 4 games since 1992.

* Denver is 26-10 ATS in home games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.

Finally, I truly believe that Denver is the better team and will put together a solid effort at home after playing their last 2 on the road. I believe that they will respond to their coach’s challenge. The Chiefs are certainly a team on the rise, but I don’t see them beating the Broncos on the road, especially in a game that the Broncos MUST win in order to have any shot at making it to the post season. While the Broncos have been playing some stiff competition lately, the Chiefs have been playing some creampuffs. In likening it to a horse race, the Chiefs are stepping up in class and appear to be a longshot in this spot. Because of the recent lopsided scores in the Chiefs games, the line is a bit "deflated" and I will gladly lay the points.

Although I like this play, do not wager more than you can afford to lose. Nothing is for sure.

Best of luck to those who play this game.