ASA: Big Ten report week 2
American Sports Analysts
Ohio State and Wisconsin looked average in less than impressive wins over Akron and UNLV, respectively. Michigan looked well below average in a blowout home loss to Oregon. And Penn State looked well above average in laying claim as possibly the team to beat in the Big Ten.
Here’s a look back at the week that was and a look forward to the week that will be in the Big Ten.
Illinois
Week That Was: The Illini running game, which led the Big Ten last year, carried the team to a 21-0 blanking of Western Illinois. The Illini tallied 277 yards on the ground with their top four rushers averaging more than 6.5 yards per carry. Quarterback Juice Williams’ accuracy remains a concern as he was able to complete just 50 percent of his passes. Williams supposedly improved his accuracy during the offseason but he has yet to show he can consistently hit his target.
Week That Will Be: Illinois finds itself in a weird position as it is 12.5-point road favorites at Syracuse this week. The Illini have been road favorites just three times in the last five years, going 1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS in those games. Additionally, Illinois hasn’t won a game in a dome since 1994, going 0-8 in that span. Syracuse, which owns one of the nation’s worst offenses, was blanked by Iowa in a 35-0 loss last year. The Orange beat Illinois last year, though, jumping out to a 31-7 lead before holding on to win 31-21.
Indiana
Week That Was: Strong defensive efforts have been few and far between for the Indiana football program over the years. Saturday’s win over Western Michigan was one of those few. The Hoosiers forced five turnovers, tallied eight sacks and scored a defensive touchdown. A potential future pitfall comes on the other side of the ball, where the offense scored just three points on three red zone trips to start the second half. Week That Will Be: Indiana improved its record against Mid-American Conference programs to 17-0 since 1980 with its win over Western Michigan. The Hoosiers will have a chance to make it 18-0 this weekend when it hosts Akron as 13-point favorites. Indiana is 5-2-1 ATS in those games, including a 4-1 ATS mark when at home. Indiana won 41-10 over Central Michigan in 2004 the last time it was a double-digit favorite over a MAC program.
Iowa
Week That Was: It appeared running backs Damian Sims and Albert Young would have to carry the Iowa offense after the season opener. Quarterback Jake Christensen, along with tight end Tony Moeaki, showed that the Hawkeyes passing game is also a force to be reckoned with in Iowa’s 35-0 blanking of Syracuse. Christensen completed 23-of-32 passes for 278 yards and four touchdowns – three of which went to Moeaki – in the victory. The Hawkeyes defense was even more impressive, holding the Orange to just five first downs and 103 total yards. Iowa currently leads the country with just 1.5 points allowed per game. Week That Will Be: Iowa will make the short trip to Ames, Iowa this weekend to take on in-state rival Iowa State as 17-point favorites. These two squads are going in opposite directions right now. The Hawkeyes have won both of their games by a combined score of 51-3 while the Cyclones have lost both of their games, one to Kent State and the other to Northern Iowa, neither of which is all that good. Iowa is 18-9 SU against Iowa State since 1980 but just 13-17 ATS in those games, including ATS losses the last three years. The Hawkeyes trailed 17-10 in last year’s meeting before scoring 17 unanswered points to win 27-17, failing to cover the 14-point spread.
Michigan
Week That Was: The situation in Ann Arbor went from bad to worse as the Wolverines were decimated 39-7 at home by Oregon. The Wolverines defense was once again dominated as it allowed a whopping 624 yards, with 331 coming on the ground and 293 coming through the air. The 32-point loss was the worst Michigan loss since 1968 when it lost 50-14 at Ohio State. Making matters worse, quarterback Chad Henne was sidelined for a majority of the second half with a lower-leg injury. Week That Will Be: Henne will be out again when the Wolverines look to get back on track against Notre Dame. Michigan is currently 7.5-point favorites over the equally struggling Irish but that’s not a role that has worked out very well for the Wolverines in the past. Michigan is 3-11 ATS as the favorite over Notre Dame since 1980, compared to a perfect 7-0 as the underdog. The Wolverines blew out the Irish 47-21 as 5-point dogs last year but neither team appears to be the team it was last year.
Michigan State
Week That Was: The Spartans appeared to be on the verge of becoming the second consecutive Big Ten program to fall to MAC member Bowling Green when they fell behind 14-7 early in the second quarter. But they turned it around after that, scoring 21 of the next 24 points in picking up a 28-17 win. Michigan State adjusted to Bowling Green’s spread offense and its physicality eventually wore down the Falcons. The Spartan secondary struggled for the second straight contest, though, allowing 295 passing yards.
Week That Will Be: Michigan State downed Pittsburgh 38-23 as 3-point road dogs in last year’s meeting and will look to do the same this time around as 10.5-point home favorites. Pittsburgh, like Michigan State, is 2-0 on the year but has earned its wins against lowly Eastern Michigan and Grambling programs. The Spartans controlled the clock in last year’s win, totaling 335 yards on the ground en route to an 11-minute time-of-possession advantage. Michigan State has struggled recently as double-digit home favorites, going just 5-13 ATS in the last 18 occurrences. Since 1980, the Spartans are just 5-18 ATS as double-digit home favorites coming off a non-conference game.
Minnesota
Week That Was: The Gophers played in their third consecutive overtime contest, this time pulling out a 41-35 win over Miami (OH). Minnesota lost to MAC program Bowling Green the week prior and nearly fell to another MAC member after blowing a 16-point fourth-quarter lead. The Gopher running attack was nearly unstoppable, going for 306 yards, while freshman quarterback Adam Weber tallied 368 yards of total offense and four scores. The Minnesota defense was once again awful, though, surrendering 577 total yards. The Gophers are now 113th in the country in total defense and 117th in pass defense.
Week That Will Be: Minnesota goes on the road for the first time this season when it travels to play Florida Atlantic as 8.5-point favorites. The Gophers running game is as good as ever but the defense is as bad as it has been in some time. Bowling Green and Miami (OH) moved the ball through the air at will so Minnesota will need to sure up its secondary. The Gophers have excelled as road favorites of eight or more points, going 13-5 SU and 11-7 ATS since 1980, including an 8-2 ATS mark in the last 10 instances. Within those records, they are 6-1 ATS in non-conference affairs.
Northwestern
Week That Was: Northwestern was outplayed in almost every facet of the game but used a 16-7 fourth-quarter scoring advantage to secure a 36-31 win over Nevada. The Wildcats offense did it part but the defense failed to show up, allowing 541 total yards to Nevada. The win was tempered by the injury to running back Tyrell Sutton, who twisted his ankle after just three carries. Backup Brandon Roberson stepped in nicely, though, totaling 128 rushing yards and a touchdown on just 13 carries.
Week That Will Be: Sutton is listed as questionable for this weekend but the Wildcats may not need him against lowly Duke. The Blue Devils are terrible in every facet of the game but could sneak up on Northwestern, which is favored by 16.5 points. Northwestern has won five consecutive meetings with Duke SU, going 4-1 ATS in those contests. The last two victories were closely contested, though, with the Wildcats winning by an average of just 6.5 points. Northwestern is just 2-5 ATS at home against the Blue Devils dating back to 1985.
Ohio State
Week That Was: The Buckeyes improved to 2-0 behind a dominating defensive effort. The Ohio State stop unit limited Akron to just 69 total yards of offense in winning 20-2. The running game also got on track following a lackluster showing in the season-opener with Chris Wells running for 143 yard on 20 carries. The current turnover differential for the Buckeyes could be a problem down the road, though. Ohio State has turned the ball over six times, including five against Akron, while the defense, despite its domination, has forced only one turnover.
Week That Will Be: Ohio State hasn’t looked all that great against the likes of low-level competition from Youngstown State and Akron. The Buckeyes will have to up their level of play this weekend when they travel west to play Washington as 4-point favorites. The Huskies have played extremely well in jumping out to a 2-0 start, including a win over Boise State last week. Ohio State is 3-2 both SU and ATS versus Washington since 1986 but both ATS losses came on the road by an average margin of 21 points. The Buckeyes have excelled in this situation recently, though, going 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games as a road favorite of five points or less.
Penn State
Week That Was: The Penn State defense put forth another strong effort in leading the team to a 31-10 win over Notre Dame. The Nittany Lions limited the once vaunted Notre Dame offense to just 144 total yards, including zero on the ground, with the only Irish touchdown coming on an interception return. The Penn State stop unit is now first in the country in run defense, second in total defense and sixth in scoring defense. The offense didn’t look as strong, though, as it turned the ball over three times and managed only 131 passing yards. The running game totaled 164 yards but averaged just 3.6 yards per carry.
Week That Will Be: The Lions get another cupcake before kicking off Big Ten play when they host Buffalo this week as 34-point favorites. The Bulls got a rare win with their 42-7 victory over Temple last weekend but Penn State should have no problem stopping that winning streak at one. The Lions have been favorites of 30 points or more 15 times since 1981 but have gone just 7-8 ATS in those contests, including a 0-6 ATS mark when coming off back-to-back wins.
Purdue
Week That Was: Purdue enjoyed its 52-point showing in its season-opener that it decided to match last weekend in its 52-6 win over Eastern Illinois. The Boilermakers laid claim to the title of the Big Ten’s best offense, totaling 533 total yards with 355 coming through the air and 178 coming on the ground. Curtis Painter matched a school record with six touchdown passes.
Week That Will Be: The Boilermakers pass defense has looked much improved from last season so far but has yet to face a passing attack like Central Michigan’s. Chippewas quarterback Dan LeFevour was the MAC’s offensive player of the year last season as a freshman and is dangerous both with his arm and with his legs. Purdue and Central Michigan have both played Toledo this year and have both posted 52 points. The Boilermakers are just 4-6 ATS versus MAC programs since 1999 and have lost three straight games ATS versus the conference. They were double-digit favorites in each of those games and are currently 20.5-point favorites in this one.
Wisconsin
Week That Was: The Badgers looked mighty impressive in their season-opening win over Washington State but appeared to take a step back in last week’s 20-13 road win over UNLV. The offense struggled after a strong showing the previous week, converting just 5-of-15 third downs and totaling just 138 passing yards. The passing attack was dealt a blow in the second quarter when wideout Paul Hubbard was lost for the game with a right knee injury. Despite the struggles, Wisconsin extended its winning streak to 11 games, the longest in the country among Division I programs.
Week That Will Be: Wisconsin will look to avoid the hand Michigan was dealt when it hosts The Citadel, members of the Southern Conference along with Appalachian State, this weekend. The Bulldogs are among the best teams in the Football Championship Subdivision as they are first in scoring defense and second in scoring offense in what was formerly Division I-AA. Their average margin of victory is 43.5 points through two games.