2002-03 Buzz Word Sports records
SEASON NBA: 252-198, +78.05 UNITS!!
SEASON NFL: 168-134, +68.7 UNITS!!
COLLEGE FOOTBALL: 146-128, -15.8 UNITS
SEASON MLB: 672-582, +151.85 UNITS!!
1/10 FREE PLAYS (Top Plays available to subscribers):
Boston @ Dallas 8:05 PM EST
Boston +9.5 over Dallas (2.5 Units)
Boston/Dallas Under 198 (1.5 Units)
Many people are blindly jumping on the Dallas Mavericks in this contest between a Dallas team that owns the best record in the NBA and a Boston team that has just two wins in their last seven games... obviously, we don't blame anyone for thinking this contest is going to be yet another double-digit Dallas win... however, a deeper look into the numbers tells us that the percentage play in this contest is none other than the Boys from Beantown, as despite the Mavs' ATS dominance in this series, this is the most points they have ever laid against Boston, and past history tells us that they won't be able to cover the extra juice...
Since March of 1997, these two teams have played in Dallas five times, with the Mavs taking four of the five meetings straight up.. however, of those five meetings, the Mavs only covered the spread twice, with their largest margin of victory being just seven points... if not for that seventh point in that contest in February 2001, the Mavs would be looking at a 1-3-1 ATS mark at home against the Celtics, as they barely covered the 6.5 point spread that evening... all in all, each of those five Dallas home games were decided by seven points or less, a standard that makes our faith in Dallas covering a nearly double-digit spread virtually nonexistent...
In addition to having consistently close games in Dallas, the Mavs have been like clockwork on offense in Boston's last four visits, scoring 98 or 99 points in each contest... anything less than 100 points against the Celtics tonight certainly won't help the Dallas cause, as they are now 0-6 ATS when scoring less than 100 points since Thanksgiving... Maybe the Mavs had too much triptofan that day, as since that time, the Mavs have gone just 7-13 ATS in their last twenty games after starting the year off as a can't-miss 11-2 ATS... Dallas has had trouble living up to the standards they've set for themselves with their early season run, as they are now just 3-7 ATS in their last ten games despite an 8-2 straight up mark, and just 2-5 ATS in their last seven at home... in other words, oddsmakers are overinflating the lines in Dallas games right now, and the Mavs aren't able to keep up...
The Celtics haven't been able to keep up with most teams as of late, but we've been noticing some strong signs that they are ready to break out of a slump that has seen Boston go just 4-7 SU/3-8 ATS in their last 11 games... in their last five games, the Celtics seem to have rediscovered an offense that was MIA, as Boston has now scored at least 93 points in five consecutive games... and while Boston may only have won two of those contests straight up, each of their three losses in that span have been by five points or less... remember, if Dallas scoring 98 or 99 points is a relatively decent barometer for this game, Boston will cover the spread if they continue their offensive showing of the last week...
A couple of additional trends we like in Boston - not only are the Celtics 13-6 ATS after a double-digit win, but they are one of the few Eastern Conference teams to thrive against Western Conference opponents, as the Celtics are now 9-3-2 ATS as a road dog against the West... in a league where history tends to repeat itself, we'll latch onto the points and take the Celtics, as they likely lose this game straight up, but we see yet another instance of the Mavericks winning by a touchdown or less against the Celts..
FINAL PREDICTION: DALLAS 98, BOSTON 93
Golden State @ Washington 7:05 PM EST
Golden State +7 over Washington (2 Units)
Golden State/Washington Over 198 (1 Unit)
New Jersey @ Toronto 7:05 PM EST
Toronto/New Jersey Under 184 (1 Unit)
LA Clippers @ Seattle 10:35 PM EST
LA Clippers +5 over Seattle (1 Unit)
Thanks for reading, and good luck!