Bracket Buster Preview
By Joe Nelson
The Bracket Buster is a great concept but unfortunately there are very few truly meaningful games. The idea is that teams in smaller conferences will have an opportunity to land a solid non-conference win that might push them into the NCAA tournament but the reality for many teams is that a win will only provide modest gains but a loss would push them out of contention for a spot in the big dance.
The major conferences would never agree to participate but a more meaningful bracket buster would feature major conference teams on the bubble playing each other so there was a clearer picture of which of the major conference teams were deserving and not-deserving. This might open up more room for the mid-majors that have performed well rather than trying to determine which mid-majors deserve a shot with fairly meaningless late-season games against teams that could actually weaken their resumes. This season may be an exception to the normal late season situation but there are very few teams that can actually move into NCAA tournament position with a Bracket Buster win.
The biggest game on the Bracket Buster schedule is Butler hosting Drake as both teams are in the Top 25 and have essentially locked up the respective regular season conference titles. It is sure to be an entertaining game and might impact NCAA tournament seeding but both teams are definitely going to be playing in the NCAA tournament. It would be better to get each of these teams playing against a team that needs a big win to move up into consideration to really have a make-or-break bracket busting type of game for those underdogs.
Two conferences that have teams that could really use a Bracket Buster game are not playing in the event with no Sun Belt teams and no Mountain West teams participating despite teams like South Alabama, Western Kentucky, BYU, and UNLV sitting firmly on the bubble. There are a few notable games on the schedule that will provide opportunities however.
Friday, Feb. 23
Davidson at Winthrop: Davidson is 17-0 in the Southern Conference but should the Wildcats falter in the Conference Tournament a repeat trip to the Big Dance is unlikely, though they would be a heavily debated team. Winthrop was a giant-killer in past seasons but they are not the match-up that Davidson needs to bolster the resume as a win over the Eagles will not provide much of a boost to the numbers. A loss for Davidson would make seven losses on the season and would probably drop Davidson outside the bubble for at-large consideration. Davidson deserves credit for playing tough against elite teams such as North Carolina and UCLA but the bottom line is that much like in the NCAA tournament last season, Davidson came close but could not do enough to win.
Saturday, Feb. 24
Virginia Commonwealth at Akron: At first glance the first match-up on the board Saturday appears to carry some weight but both teams have recently played itself out of at-large contention. Akron has fallen two games behind Kent in the MAC East standings and a recent home loss to Northern Illinois definitely takes the Zips out of the picture. Akron played a very weak non-conference schedule and a Bracket Buster win would not bring any gain to an Akron campaign. VCU has taken a commanding lead in the Colonial but that won't be enough to get the Rams into the Dance should they falter in the Colonial Tournament. Losing at home to Old Dominion last week and also failing to pick up a big non-conference win will prevent serious consideration when the numbers are laid out. Winning on the road at Akron would be a nice win but not quite enough and losing would mean sure elimination from already slim at-large consideration.
Creighton at Oral Roberts: This is an example of a play-out game rather than a play-in game. Creighton really has no realistic hope of earning an at-large bid unless they put together a perfect finish and a deep conference tournament run. A recent loss to IUPUI puts Oral Roberts into very questionable status after looking like a potential bubble-team that could have finished with a perfect Summit conference record. A win here really would not bolster the resume for either team, but a loss would cement the fate of needing to win the conference tournament.
Kent State at St. Mary’s: The final game on Saturday’s Bracket Buster schedule might be the most meaningful. Gonzaga and St. Mary’s are in great shape for NCAA tournament bids but the Gaels need to be concerned because the standings could actually have them in third place in the WCC by season’s end. San Diego is a surprising 8-1 in the conference and already beat St. Mary’s this season. Right now St. Mary’s would probably make the field but a loss at home to Kent State might knock the Gaels down a tier and into questionable status. Kent State has taken control of the MAC East but surviving the MAC tournament and earning an automatic bid is far from a given, especially with the 12-team expanded bracket in Cleveland this season. The Flashes do not have the strength of schedule to feel comfortable about an at-large bid but a win at St. Mary’s would be a huge stamp on the resume.
Sunday, Feb. 25
Wright State at Illinois State: Wright State has a 19-6 record but the early season win over Butler will not be enough to get the Raiders considered for an at-large berth. If Wright State wins here and beats Butler in Indianapolis and makes it to at least the conference tournament final there is a small glimmer of hope but even then it would not be a great position to be in. Illinois State will not pick up much benefit in the ratings with a win at home here but a loss would probably sink the at-large hopes for the Redbirds. Illinois State is currently second in the pecking order of the normally strong Missouri Valley but it could be one-bid conference this season with Drake’s dominance. An early season loss to Kent definitely hurts Illinois State as those teams could end up with similar profiles.
In all the Bracket Buster provides some entertaining match-ups and some excellent potential wagering situations but it really does not provide what the spirit of the event intended. In the future mid-major teams might consider trying to squeeze a late-season non-conference game against a major conference school into the schedule as an opportunity to catch a major foe off guard in the midst of the conference season and pick up a meaningful win that provides momentum in the public perception. That is more pipe dream than reality of course, as no major conference team will want to be in that position.
Late season non-conference match-ups for major conference bubble teams would provide a great read into the at-large positioning as well and would likely provide the ratings boost that the ESPN designed event would hope for. Imagine if we had games like USC/Ohio State, West Virginia/Kansas State, Syracuse/Maryland, and Kentucky/Villanova on the schedule this Saturday.
That would provide a real Bracket Buster with meaningful games that would definitely have teams playing for an NCAA tournament bid and would bring great exposure to college hoops as we head into the conference tournaments. It would likely open up more spots for mid-major teams as well as it would be easier to eliminate a major conference bubble team based on a late-season loss when there would be teams with similar schedules and resumes in the same conference that they could be compared with.
VegasInsider.com