BREAKING DOWN "THE BIG DANCE"
Throughout the years, many customers have asked what our favorite time of the year is at THE GOLD SHEET. Truth be told, we like every month of our publishing season, but we have to admit to a special thrill whenever it comes to preparing for “The Big Dance.” Like clockwork, our collective pulses start to quicken each February in anticipation of ever-looming NCAA Tournament. And when the calendar turns to March, it might as well be Christmas all over again at our offices. And we are having an absolute ball playing “bracketologist” this winter, scoping out a projected NCAA field each week, an updated version of which appears every Wednesday on our adjacent web pages.
So, it’s no surprise that we’re getting excited again, as we at TGS are again fast approaching our favorite time of the year. Indeed, from this point forward, “March Mayhem” will become the major talking point of the college basketball campaign. And the postseason is approaching quicker than you might imagine, as, believe it or not, we’ll be starting our conference tournament previews shortly.
Hey, wasn’t it just New Year’s?
Whatever, we have long believed a mid-February look at college hoop squads vying for potential NCAA invitations to be a worthwhile exercise. Knowing where teams might (or might not) fit into the postseason equation can be especially useful handicapping information this time of the year. The NCAA prospects of many teams (especially those on the proverbial “bubble”) will be decided in the next few weeks, adding an extra factor to be considered when forecasting their upcoming games. Beyond the aforementioned “bubble” teams that need every win to stay in the good graces of the NCAA Tourney Committee, it’s also worth paying attention to the squads with “Big Dance” bids securely in hand. Those teams might not all approach the final weeks of the regular season (or conference tourneys) in the same manner, some seeking to develop extra depth and avoid key injuries, others emphasizing a strong drive through the regular-season tape and hopefully carrying that momentum into the postseason.
Following is a late-February look at the major “board” conferences and their chances of sending multiple entries to the NCAA Tournament. We are our own “Bracketologists” at TGS and have divided the teams into three categories—Solid, Looking Good, and Bubble. Solid is self-explanatory. Looking Good teams can expect an NCAA invitation as long as they don’t slump badly in the next few weeks. Bubble teams, however, remain at the mercy of the Tourney Committee, and desperately need every win to keep their Big Dance hopes alive. And, remember, for our latest TGS NCAA Tourney projections, check out the adjacent pages on our website.
Keep in mind that nearly every Division I team can qualify for an automatic Big Dance berth by winning its conference tournament. With the Big Ten finally relenting earlier this decade, and the Pac-Ten re-instituting its tourney in 2002 after a 12-year hiatus, the Ivy League remains the lone conference tourney holdout—and even the Ivies are now talking about conducting their own postseason shindig in the near future! Stay tuned for further developments. In the meantime, as always, the number of upsets in conference tournaments can alter the look of the Big Dance. Also included below are conference tourney sites and dates; Conference Power Rankings (thru Feb. 20); and last year’s postseason participants.
ACC—Solid...Duke & North Carolina. Looking Good...Clemson. Bubble...Maryland, Miami-Florida, Wake Forest, NC State. Conference Power Rating-4th. Notes...Tourney March 13-16 at Charlotte Bobcats Arena, Charlotte, NC. Last year...NCAA-7 (North Carolina-Elite 8, Boston College-2nd round, Virginia-2nd round, Maryland-2nd round, Virginia Tech-2nd round, Duke, Georgia Tech); NIT-3 (Clemson-2nd place, NC State-Quarterfinals, Florida State-Quarterfinals).
ATLANTIC TEN—Solid...Xavier. Bubble...Rhode Island, Dayton, Saint Joseph’s, UMass, Charlotte, Duquesne. Conference-8th. Notes...Tourney March 12-15 at Boardwalk Hall, Atlantic City, NJ. Last year...NCAA-2 (Xavier-2nd round, George Washington); NIT-1 (UMass-2nd round).
BIG EAST—Solid...Georgetown, Louisville, UConn, Notre Dame. Looking Good...Marquette & Pitt. Bubble...Syracuse, West Virginia, Villanova, Cincinnati. Conference-3rd. Notes...Tourney March 12-15 at Madison Square Garden, New York City, NY. Last year...NCAA-6 (Georgetown-Final Four, Pitt-Sweet 16, Louisville-2nd round, Notre Dame, Villanova, Marquette); NIT-4 (West Virginia-Champs, Syracuse-3rd round, DePaul-3rd round, Providence).
BIG TEN—Solid...Indiana, Wisconsin, Purdue, Michigan State. Bubble...Ohio State. Conference-5th. Notes...Tourney March 13-16 at Conseco Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN. Last year...NCAA-6 (Ohio State-2nd place, Indiana-2nd round, Michigan State-2nd round, Purdue-2nd round, Wisconsin-2nd round, Illinois). NIT-1 (Michigan-2nd round).
BIG XII—Solid...Kansas & Texas. Looking Good...Kansas State & Texas A&M. Bubble...Oklahoma & Baylor. Conference-2nd. Notes...Tourney March 13-16, Sprint Center, Kansas City, MO. Last year...NCAA-4 (Kansas-Elite 8, Texas A&M-Sweet 16, Texas-2nd round, Texas Tech); NIT-2 (Kansas State-2nd round, Oklahoma State).
BIG WEST—Bubble...CS Fullerton & CS Northridge. Conference-17th. Notes...Tourney March 12-15 at Anaheim Convention Center, Anaheim, CA. Only one NCAA bid likely. Last year...NCAA-1 (Long Beach State).
COLONIAL—Bubble...Virginia Commonwealth, George Mason, NC-Wilmington. Conference-15th. Notes...Tourney March 7-10 at Richmond Coliseum, Richmond, VA. Last year...NCAA-2 (Virginia Commonwealth-2nd round, Old Dominion); NIT-2 (Hofstra, Drexel).
C-USA—Solid...Memphis. Bubble...Houston & UAB. Conference-11th. Notes...Tourney March 12-15 at FedEx Forum, Memphis, TN. Last year...NCAA-1 (Memphis-Elite 8).
HORIZON—Solid...Butler. Bubble...Wright State. Conference-10th. Notes...Tourney March 4 at campus sites (first round); quarters and semis March 7-8 at home of number one seed, likely Butler’s Hinkle Fieldhouse. Final March 11 at home of highest-remaining seed. Last year...NCAA-2 (Butler-Sweet 16, Wright State).
MAC—Looking Good...Kent State. Bubble...Akron & Ohio. Conference-12th. Notes...Tourney March 12-15 at Quicken Loans Arena, Cleveland, OH. Last year...NCAA-1 (Miami-Ohio); NIT-1 (Toledo).
MISSOURI VALLEY—Solid...Drake. Bubble...Illinois State & Creighton. Conference-7th. Notes...Tourney (“Arch Madness”) March 6-9, Scottrade Center, St. Louis, MO. Last year...NCAA-2 (Southern Illinois-Sweet 16, Creighton); NIT-2 (Missouri State, Bradley).
MOUNTAIN WEST—Looking Good...BYU. Bubble...UNLV, New Mexico. Utah, San Diego State. Conference-9th. Notes...Tourney March 12-15 at Thomas & Mack Center, Las Vegas, NV. Last year...NCAA-2 (UNLV-Sweet 16, BYU); NIT-2 (Air Force-semifinals, San Diego State-2nd round).
PAC 10—Solid...UCLA, Stanford, Washington State. Looking Good...Southern Cal.. Bubble...Arizona, Arizona State, Oregon, Cal. Conference-1st. Notes...Tourney March 12-15 at Staples Center, Los Angeles, CA. Last year...NCAA-6 (UCLA-Finals Four, Oregon-Elite 8, Southern Cal-Sweet 16, Washington State-2nd round, Stanford, Arizona).
SEC—Solid...Tennessee & Vanderbilt. Looking Good...Mississippi State. Bubble...Arkansas, Florida, Kentucky, Ole Miss. Conference-6th. Notes...Tourney March 13-16 at Georgia Dome, Atlanta, GA. Last year...NCAA-5 (Florida-Champs, Tennessee-Sweet 16, Vanderbilt-Sweet 16, Kentucky-2nd round, Arkansas); NIT-4 (Mississippi State-semifinals, Georgia-2nd round, Ole Miss-2nd round, Alabama).
SUN BELT—Looking Good...South Alabama & Western Kentucky. Conference-19th. Notes...Tourney March 5 at campus sites (first round); then March 9-11 at the Mitchell Center, Mobile, AL (home court of South Alabama). Last year...NCAA-1 (North Texas); NIT-1 (South Alabama).
WEST COAST—Solid...Saint Mary’s. Looking Good...Gonzaga. Conference-13th. Notes...Tourney March 7-10 at Jenny Craig Pavilion, San Diego, CA (home court of San Diego). Last year...NCAA-1 (Gonzaga).
WAC—Bubble...Boise State, Utah State, Nevada. Conference-16th. Notes...Tourney March 11, 13-15 at Pan American Center, Las Cruces, NM (home court of New Mexico State). Last year...NCAA-2 (Nevada-2nd round, New Mexico State); NIT-2 (Fresno State, Utah State).
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