Enjoy our full selection of plays this evening on the house!
BuzzWordSports NBA - 2/19 TOP PLAYS:
New York @ Seattle 10:05 PM EST
New York +3.5 over Seattle (5 Units)
Two teams swirling in the midst of trade rumors meet up tonight as the New York Knicks continue their west coast tour with a date against the Seattle Sonics... we can understand why the Sonics are looking to deal, as Seattle has bottomed out over the past couple of months (going 13-28 since an 8-2 start), and are currently on a six-game slide that doesn't look to end here tonight against the improving Knicks... Rumors of a deal in New York seem to be just that, as the Knickerbockers have actually played themselves right into the Eastern Conference playoff picture with a 21-19 record since a 2-10 start without Latrell Sprewell...
While 21-19 may not seem like all that impressive of a record, the Knicks have exceeded all expectations with Antonio McDyess out for the season, and have been absolutely superb when getting points against an opponent... as a single-digit underdog, the Knicks have gone a whopping 19-5-1 ATS in their last 25 games... and as a dog against Western Conference foes, the Knicks are an exceptional 10-2 ATS in their last twelve, with both slip-ups coming against the Dallas Mavericks... Seattle is not the Dallas Mavericks, that's for sure, and considering that New York is not only 7-0 ATS as a road dog of ten or less against the West, and have owned the Sonics over the past few years (going 6-1 both SU and ATS against Seattle), any reason for Seattle to be favored seems to be slipping away rather quickly...
Not that we're arguing against Seattle being a favorite... we love when the Sonics are laying points, because that is when they are their worst... in their last sixteen games as a home fav, Seattle's sole covering efforts have come against the triumvirate of Cleveland, Chicago, and Miami - three teams that have combined for just 13 road wins on the year... and while the Knicks may only have eight road wins this season, half of those wins have come in their last seven away from Madison Square Garden... Going back to Seattle as a fav, they are a pathetic 0-9 ATS when favored by less than five points, and 0-5 SU/1-4 ATS after a contest where they lost SU but managed to cover the spread...
Perhaps most interesting about Seattle's performance against the Knicks is how they have performed worse offensively in each subsequent game... starting from 11/24/2000 and moving towards today, Seattle has scored 96, 92, 87, 83, and 80 points against New York... toss in the fact that Seattle has scored just 87.8 ppg in their last 26 games, and points look to once again be at a premium for the Sonics... New York on the other hand has scored at least 100 points in seven of their last eight games, and 90+ in twelve of their last thirteen... with the trade deadline tomorrow (and with only three games on the schedule that night), we're not expecting many major deals this evening - and even with any trades that might be made, the bottom line still looks to be that New York has too much for the Sonics here... take the Knicks and the points...
FINAL PREDICTION: NEW YORK 96, SEATTLE 84
Detroit @ Toronto 7:05 PM EST
Toronto +2.5 over Detroit (4 Units)
Two teams on some very serious rolls try and keep their mojo going, as Toronto Raptors host the Detroit Pistons in contest pitting two teams that have performed much differently than their preseason expectations... while the Pistons were expected to take a step back after the offseason trade of Jerry Stackhouse, they find themselves tied for first place in the Eastern Conference... meanwhile, the Raptors, expected to once again be a playoff contender in the East, have been a victim of nonstop injuries throughout the season and were just 10-33 on the year prior to Vince Carter's return to the lineup...
Carter's return has borne some immediate results, however, as the Raptors have gone 6-2 since his return, including a whopping 5-1 mark at home, where the Raptors have scored an average of 102.2 points per game since VC's return to health... in their last six games overall, Toronto has excelled offensively, scoring at least 97 points in every contest... most interesting about Toronto's recent success is the fact that their last four games have been decided by a combined ten points, meaning that the fact that they are getting points in this contest is a huge benefit... in games against Sacramento and Indiana, the Raptors were installed as a home dog, only to come out victorious, and judging the recent history between these two teams, we're expecting a similar result tonight...
Whenever Toronto and Detroit have faced one another, the home team has emerged victorious in six straight contests... yet the Raptors have covered each of the last five games between these two, partially due to the fact that Detroit has failed to break 85 points in each of their last four games against the dinosaurs... the Pistons may be on a hellacious 8-1 tear, but their last five wins haven't come against teams that are playing good basketball right now (Miami, Cleveland, Orlando, Chicago, and the Clippers), meaning that Detroit might be a little overrated right now... and the fact that Detroit's win last night came so easily looks to actually work against them, as Detroit is not only 2-7-1 ATS on the road after a double-digit win, but they are 1-4 ATS this season as a road fav after a DD victory... and after a game where Detroit won by 20+ despite scoring less than 100 points, the Pistons are 0-6 ATS, including five SU losses, and an 0-3 SU/ATS mark this season where they lost ATS by an average of 22.5 ppg...
Toronto is 8-3 ATS in their last eleven games as a dog, and are a team that should be judged on their recent performance rather than their overall record... the value in this contest lies completely with the Raptors, and as such, we recommend them for a 4-Unit play...
FINAL PREDICTION: TORONTO 95, DETROIT 84
Houston @ Phoenix 9:05 PM EST
Houston +6.5 over Phoenix (4 Units)
When two teams have a history of playing one another closely, it's always important to take into consideration how many points the underdog is receiving... in the case of the Houston Rockets tonight, they are getting 6.5 points from the Suns, and the fact that the line has risen that high is a very key component of why we like them so much...
We've talked many times about how the Rockets perform solidly as an underdog, and how the Suns perform poorly as a favorite... and while we won't harp heavily on Houston's prowess as a dog, we will once again show the numbers behind Phoenix's performance as a favorite... heading back to last season, the Suns are a ridiculous 11-30 ATS as a fav... perhaps most amazing is how poorly the Suns fare when laying more than four points, as Phoenix is a downright ridiculous 3-15 ATS in their last eighteen games when laying more than two buckets... the number only gets worse when the pointspread rises, as Phoenix is 3-11 ATS as a fav of 5+ points, and just 2-8 ATS when favored by six or more...
The road team in this series has actually covered EIGHT straight contests, with the Rockets going a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last five games in Phoenix... and while Houston may just be 2-3 straight up in those contests, each of their three losses have come by five points or less... in fact, Phoenix has seen each of their last six wins over the Rockets come by six points or less, meaning that they would not have covered tonight's spread in any of those contests... take the last ten games in this series and average the final margin of victory, and you're looking at just 4.2 ppg separating these teams... with the underdog 7-1 ATS in the last eight games between these two (with the sole loss coming by a half point), and the road team undefeated ATS in those contests, the Rockets are looking like a very solid bet to cover this number...
Regardless of who wins this game, laying 6.5 points here is a very bad idea, as past history has shown that when these two teams play, it will be a nip and tuck battle throughout... yes, Houston may be tired after last night's double overtime loss in LA, but their matchups with the Suns tell us that they will somehow cover this number yet again and move to 6-0 ATS in Phoenix... take the points and the Rockets, as Houston falls short of the SU victory, but manages to get the cash nonetheless...
FINAL PREDICTION: PHOENIX 100, HOUSTON 97
Milwaukee @ LA Clippers 10:05 PM EST
Milwaukee +1.5 over LA Clippers (4 Units)
Here we go again... once more, the Clippers have been installed as a favorite, despite the fact that the words Clippers and favorite should never be used in the same sentence... while the Clips had a solid run for awhile as an underdog, when it comes to actually WINNING games, the Clippers have only put together six victorious efforts in their last 24 games... the end result of this performance is a team that can cover the spread solidly as an underdog, but is absolutely pathetic when installed as a favorite, no matter who the competition...
After yet another SU loss as a favorite (this time by allowing the Celtics to finish the game with a 14-0 run), the Clippers have continued a streak where they have gone just 4-20-1 ATS when favored over the opposition, with SU losses to the likes of Cleveland, Denver, and Washington (without Stackhouse) in the mix... now the Clips are being asked to beat a very solid Milwaukee team at home, and frankly, we just can't see that happening... After all, the Clips are just 2-7 SU and 1-8 ATS in their last nine games, with both victories coming by two points or less... in other words, it takes everything in their power just to squeak by with a win right now, and against a Milwaukee team that is now 6-1 SU on the road in their last seven contests, the odds of that occurring seem minimal at best...
After all, take a look at the last four teams that LA has managed to defeat as a favorite - the Bulls, Grizzlies, Nuggets, and the Heat - none of whom pass for an A-list group by anyone's logic... with a solid step up in talent with the Bucks as their opponent, the Clips appear doomed to yet another SU loss as a favorite... in Milwaukee's last four games where the line was two points or less either way, the Bucks have emerged victorious on each occasion by an average of 9.8 ppg... Milwaukee has covered four of the last five contests between these two teams, and we expect that run to continue as the Bucks rebound from last night's loss at Sacramento with a SU victory over the Clips...
FINAL PREDICTION: MILWAUKEE 97, LA CLIPPERS 90
OTHER NBA PLAYS (no analysis)
Golden State @ Portland 10:05 PM EST
Golden State +8.5 over Portland (3.5 Units)
Golden State/Portland Over 205 (2.5 Units)
Washington @ New Orleans 8:35 PM EST
New Orleans -2.5 over Washington (1.5 Units)
Philadelphia @ Chicago 9:35 PM EST
Philadelphia -2.5 over Chicago (1 Unit)