Capping the most important NCAAF games remaining
By JASON LOGAN
When compared to past 28 days, Week 12 of the college football season is like following AC/DC with The Starland Vocal Band. There are a few highlights on the board, but Week 12 is the quiet before the storms that are Weeks 13 and 14.
With that in mind, we've asked oddsmakers and line consultants to gaze into their crystal balls at some of the most impactful and important matchups remaining on the college football schedule.
Texas Tech Red Raiders at Oklahoma Sooners (Week 13)
Projected line: -3 to -7.5 Oklahoma
What is sure to be one of the year's most exciting games is also one of the hardest to gauge pointspread wise. Our fortune tellers all have the Sooners pegged as home favorites, but the number ranges from a field goal to around a touchdown.
Oklahoma will be playing for its shot at the BCS title and if Texas Tech loses, it could drop out of the BCS bowl chase all together. A logjam at the top of the Big 12 will be decided by each teams' BCS ranking.
David Malinsky, a professional handicapper and Las Vegas lines consultant, believes that the public's perception of the Sooners demands more chalk.
“The public sees (Oklahoma) as the better team,” says Malinsky. “They might not be perceived as better offensively than Texas Texas, but they are the better defensive team.”
The Sooners have the best defense in the Big 12, allowing just 346 total yards per game. And they've actually outscored the Red Raiders 51 to 48 per game.
Pittsburgh Panthers at Cincinnati Bearcats (Week 13)
Projected line: -3 to -7 Cincinnati
The battle for the Big East has been a long and winding road for many of the conference's programs. After Cincy's overtime stunner of WVU last weekend, the Bearcats are the front runners to claim at least a share of the Big East title.
Pitt is also in the mix after crushing Louisville Saturday. The Panthers have a bye week before facing Cincinnati and their blossoming passing game. The Bearcats are averaging over 251 yards through the air this season.
I like Cincinnati's chances at home versus their Big East rivals,” says Randy Scott, sportsbook manager for betED.com. “I expect this game to be fairly close early and see it opening up late in Cincinnati's favor.”
Ball State Cardinals at Central Michigan Chippewas (Week 13)
Projected line: -4.5 Ball State
The Cardinals are creeping into BCS conversations after going 10-0 (7-2 ATS) heading into this monster MAC matchup. But all those wins and national media attentions doesn't impress the Chippewas.
Central Michigan has seen its share of ranked opponents over the past couple seasons. It played Georgia this season, Kansas last year and Michigan the season before that. Ball State's most formidable foes were Indiana and Navy.
“The Cardinals won’t have the matchup advantage like they have had against weaker opponents,” says Malinsky. “We have to make them a little more than a field goal because the public will want to back the undefeated team.”
Central Mich has a steady passing attack and will have quarterback Dan LeFevour back at full strength for Week 13. The big battle for the Chippewas is holding off the Ball State offense with the MAC's worst defense.
Brigham Young Cougars at Utah Utes (Week 13)
Projected line: -3.5 Utah
The Cougars can destroy the Utes BCS dream with an upset at Rice-Eccles Stadium. Utah is the leading non-BCS program to play the role of Cinderella this year. It jumped ahead of Boise State with a win over TCU last week.
“The problem Utah faces is that BYU can make its whole season by keeping them out of a BCS game,” says Malinsky.
The Cougars have the best passing offense in the Mountain West, averaging 315 yards heading into this weekend's tilt with Air Force. They also lead the conference in scoring with 36.2 points per game.
Florida Gators at Florida State Seminoles (Week 14)
Projected line: -9.5 Florida
A 'Noles' upset over their state rival is a long shot, but the way the BCS standings have imploded each weekend, would it really surprise anyone?
Rivalry games don't carry the same weight with sportsbooks as they used to. So many teams have bowl game plans and TV time, that getting up for the school down the street isn't as important.
“Florida State is outmatched in this one in almost every category,” says Scott. “Florida will have huge odds to win outright on the road and they will be backed by the public.”
The Seminoles may carry a little more market respect than they should. They lead a weak ACC in scoring and have the top ranked defense in the conference.