CFB STAR SELECTION
Saturday, October 7, 2006
4:00 PM PT/7:00 PM ET
1 STAR SELECTION (2% of Bankroll)
Connecticut +7 over SOUTH FLORIDA
The Huskies head south to open up their Big East schedule as they take on the Bulls on Saturday night. Connecticut was embarrassed on their home field last week by Navy, 41-17, but are a resilient bunch. Under head coach Randy Edsall, they've followed 11 of their last 15 losses with SU wins. They have also proven to be road-ready under Edsall, and have already won at Indiana a couple of weeks ago.
South Florida has now lost two straight since starting the season 3-0. Last Friday, they suffered a heart-breaking 22-20 defeat, nearly knocking off nationally ranked Rutgers. It was particularly hard to swallow not only because it was in front of a national audience, but because it followed another close loss to Kansas the week before.
UConn did some things well offensively in last week’s defeat, including averaging 6 ypc for a total of 167 rushing yards. Senior quarterback Matt Bonislawski got his first start of the season, and as could be expected was not extremely efficient. He did toss two TD passes, and should be more comfortable here. On the season, the Huskies are averaging a respectable 24 ppg, powered mostly by the run game with senior tailback Terry Caulley.
The defense suffered a monumental collapse last week against Navy’s triple-option offense. Not used to facing such a scheme, and normally stout against the run, last week's performance can be considered an aberration. This unit is typically tough to put together long drives on, as the Huskies are holding opponents to 28% on third downs.
The South Florida offense was sporadic against Rutgers. The team basically lives and dies by freshman Matt Grothe’s success. He tries to do it all, and sometimes he does. He completed 16-of-25 passes for 241 yards with one touchdown last week, but did throw two picks. He also led the team in rushing with 61 yards and two touchdowns.
Rutgers found plenty of success against the Bulls defense, particularly with the run. The Scarlet Knights pounded out 226 rushing yards, effectively controlling the clock, and the outcome. Now, they will have to face an angry UConn team that will want to pound on them some more. The Bulls can expect to see plenty of Terry Caulley,
The Huskies have a lot of pride, and last week’s whipping won’t sit well with them, especially the defense. They have guys like LB Donta Moore who breaks his arm in the first half and comes back, with a cast on, to play the second. He’ll slap a brace on for this game and take the field. We expect Connecticut to respond to the loss as they normally do, as they are 8-1 ATS off a non-conference SU loss of more than a TD, including the current 5-0 spread run.
South Florida isn’t angry at this point, they are just hurting. After experiencing the elation of winning a football game in the final minutes, South Florida has suffered two very painful losses in the span of less than a week. "It hurts to lose a big game like that. I probably won't sleep tonight," said USF linebacker Ben Moffitt after the Rutgers defeat. The previous Saturday, Matt Grothe threw an interception in the Kansas end zone at then end of the game and the Bulls lost, 13-7.
A PRO INFO SPORTS NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM also points to South Florida’s loss to the Scarlet Knights lingering. From Game 3 on, home favorites of 6+ points off a non-Saturday home game in which they didn’t win by 4+ points, are 0-10 ATS vs. opponents off a SU loss.
Without a running game, and the Bulls have one of the worst in the country through five games, the pressure is on Grothe, who still makes freshman mistakes. UConn will be more than happy to hound him into some more. Last week, we went against them for an easy free winner, as they were sunk by Navy. This week, we’ll reverse course and call for the Huskies to be the rude guests and steal a win on the road.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: CONNECTICUT 24 SOUTH FLORIDA 20