CHECKING OUT THE BOWL UNDERDOGS...
It's rather remarkable, really. We're talking about the ongoing success of bowl underdogs, and, in particular, those postseason dogs receiving 7 points or more. Once again, they finished on the plus side of the ledger last season, covering 8 of 14 bowl chances. Since 2000, bowl dogs getting 7 or more have covered the number an eye-opening 46 of 67 chances!
Although last year's final tally was close (dogs covering 16, favorites 15, with one pick 'em involved), it still marked the 8th time in the last 9 postseasons that dogs have outperformed favorites. And from a historical perspective, that success is nothing new; from 1974-87, bowl underdogs recorded a 112-77 spread mark.
Still, proceed with caution, as favorites have risen from the ashes before. Indeed, the chalk didn't experience a losing postseason between 1992-97, and recorded a stellar 44-27 spread mark from '94-97. And it looked like things were going to turn around a year ago, when favorites covered 9 of the first 12 bowls, before the dogs caught fire and covered 8 of the last 9 bowls heading into the New Year's Day games.
But it's the bigger bowl underdogs (those getting 7 points or more) that continue to amaze. Bowl dogs receiving between 7-13 1/2 points have covered 48 of 70 chances since 1999; since 1974, they stand 104-64 vs. the line. When adding in the success of the biggest bowl underdogs (those teams receiving 14 points or more), the 7-point or more bowl dogs stand 121-74 since '74, a nifty 62.1% winning mark. And, remember, those are numbers accumulated over a 33-season span.
Such consistency of any pointspread trend over such an extended period of time is rare. Many believe there is just something inherent about the dynamics of bowl matchups that makes the bigger dogs an attractive proposition, much like the Power Underdogs charted over the years that have generally fared well vs. the number. Although the postseason pool has been diluted in recent seasons, almost every bowl underdog still has some credentials, even the bigger bowl dogs. When challenged, these teams are capable of putting up a solid effort. And when the favored team has no real motivation for a blowout win, especially with poll considerations no factor except in the BCS title game, the recipe for big underdog success in undeniable.
Refining a bit further, pre-New Year's bowl dogs have also posted some occasionally startling performances over the years (such as a 37-15 mark between 2000-02). And they've continued to produce winning, if not spectacular, numbers (34-25 the past three seasons).
Many observers believe there's a viable argument for those pre-New Year’s bowl dogs. Keep in mind that polls and rankings are rarely considerations in such games. Some of those early-bowl favorites tend to be disappointed “bowlers” after falling short of loftier preseason goals, while underdogs, many thrilled merely with the opportunity to play in a bowl, often approach the contest with a bit more gusto. Atmosphere-wise, the early bowls are also often played in front of less-than-capacity audiences, further diluting the normal game-day experience. Certain pre-New Year’s bowls have featured unmistakable dog success in recent years, most notably the Sun (dog 14-2-2 last 18), Peach/Chick-fil-A (11-3 last 14; one pick ‘em) and Independence (13-6 last 19).
On the other hand, dynamics in New Year’s (and after) bowls are often different different. Indeed, favorites have often had the better of it in these bowls over the years, although that hasn't held true the last three seasons, when they stood a combined 13-15 vs. the number. Note that in “national title” Bowl Alliance or BCS games since the 1995 season, only four times has a contest been decided by fewer than 17 points (featuring underdog-winning sides—Tennessee’s Fiesta Bowl win over Florida State after the ’98 campaign, Ohio State’s OT thriller vs. Miami-Florida after '02, LSU’s triumph over Oklahoma the following year, and Texas' thriller over USC at the Rose Bowl two years ago).
goldsheet.com