OPINION SELECTION
TAMPA BAY -3 over Cincinnati
The Cincinnati Bengals and Tampa Bay Buccaneers finally get to open their preseason schedules on Monday night, when the two square off in a contest that was originally scheduled for this past Saturday. The game was postponed due Hurricane Charley.
The visiting Bengals will feature former No. 1 pick Carson Palmer as their starting quarterback for the first time. Tampa Bay will introduce wideout Tim Brown to the lineup, after the longtime Oakland Raider and probable Hall of Famer signed with the team last week. Throwing passes to Brown and the starting receivers will be Brad Johnson.
As we have stated before, the first and main factor to handicapping the preseason is the coach of each team. The coaching factor in preseason, unlike the regular season, is the strongest single factor. Some coaches do not care if they lose a preseason game, while some coaches hate to lose any game at all – even exhibition games. Jon Gruden of the Bucs is such a coach. "We'll play the guys that are healthy, that give us a chance to win the game and the guys we want to evaluate" Gruden said.
We also see an edge for Tampa with their QB rotation, especially in the second half. Palmer will to face the Bucs' first-string defense and could easily struggle. Jon Kitna will relieve him in the second quarter, before giving way to a couple of unheralded rookies in the second half. We usually look to wager against teams playing rookie quarterbacks in the 2nd half. These young QBs are often late round picks and undrafted free agents, not the cream of the quarterbacking crop. Their unfamiliarity with the offensive scheme and the speed of NFL defenders often give rookie QBs trouble. Tampa's signal callers are more solid from top to bottom. After Brad Johnson plays a few series, the rest of the snaps should be split between veteran Brian Griese and up-and-coming Chris Simms. Gruden is attempting to identify his No. 2 starter so we expect him to give both QBs every opportunity to put some points on the board.
Both teams, but especially Cincinnati could be out of sorts. What was intended to be a two-day trip to Florida has turned into a five-day stay for the Bengals. Coach Marvin Lewis said, "We won't be able to do some of the things that we planned to do, but that's part of football." Meanwhile, Bucs' DC Monte Kiffin has added some new wrinkles. "We're playing a little more man-to-man coverage than we usually do," cornerback Brian Kelly said. "We're bumping a little more than we usually do. And we're being aggressive in different areas." Look for Tampa to take some of this aggressiveness out on Palmer and the other Bengals' QBs as they put this game away in the second half for the SU win and cover.