Cleveland @ Pittsburgh 1:00 PM EST
Cleveland +8 over Pittsburgh (4.5 Units)
In a playoffs already marked by upstart teams, we'd like to introduce you to the Cleveland Browns, a team that could just as easily be 15-1 as their current 9-7 mark, considering that six of Cleveland's seven losses this season have come by just one score... from losing the season opener due to a penalty for removing a helmet on the field of play, to a hail mary miracle win in the final seconds against Jacksonville, the Browns have had a penchant for the dramatic this season, and cannot be counted out of any game...
Cleveland is a superb 8-2 ATS as an underdog this season, and have absolutely thrived on the road, compiling a 7-1 ATS mark (including a 6-1 ATS mark as an underdog) while winning six games straight up, including SU wins over AFC playoff participants Tennessee and the New York Jets... in fact, in their games against playoff participants this season, the Browns have compiled a 5-2 ATS mark, a record that could have been 6-1 ATS considering the Browns were at the goalline in the final seconds against Indianapolis and shooting for the straight up win... the Browns shouldn't be too intimidated by the playoff atmosphere in this game, as their last two games have been must-win situations, and Cleveland came through in both by holding the Ravens and Falcons to a combined 29 points...
While Cleveland has been toughened up by a difficult schedule, Pittsburgh's record has been helped by a schedule that ranks among the easiest in the NFL this season... six of their wins this season have come against the likes of Cincinnati (twice), Carolina, Jacksonville, and Baltimore (twice)- teams who all had losing records on the season... and Pittsburgh's late-season schedule couldn't have done much to help prepare them for this contest, as their 5-1 SU run to end the season has come against five teams with losing records, and a Tampa Bay team that was helpless without Brad Johnson at the helm... prior to that six-game run, the Steelers played three consecutive playoff teams and ended up 1-1-1, with their sole win coming by a mere field goal against this very same Cleveland team...
In fact, while Pittsburgh has beaten the Browns in each of their two matchups this season, they were only able to squeak by by a field goal on both occasions, including an overtime contest when the Browns visited Pittsburgh... since that time, William Green has firmly established himself as the feature back with the Browns, running for 726 yards in his last seven games and showing the moves that predicted him a future star when he was drafted... additionally, the Steelers will be seeing Kelly Holcomb for the first time, and while much has been made about the loss of Tim Couch for the playoffs, Holcomb has been a more effective quarterback this season, and has thrived in the starting role, completing 63.8 percent of his passes and throwing for five touchdowns and no interceptions in his two starts this season (good enough for a quarterback ranking of 111.00 in those contests)... we truly believe that Couch getting hurt may have been a blessing in disguise for this Cleveland team, and will prove to be the tonic the Browns need in order to succeed offensively against the Steelers...
Cleveland shouldn't need much offense to cover the spread in this game, as their defense has now allowed 21 points or less in each of their last seven road games, giving up just 17.4 ppg in the process... and despite Pittsburgh's reputation at home in the playoffs, the Steelers have gone just 1-3 ATS as a home favorite of a touchdown or more in the playoffs... on the season, the Steelers have gone just 2-6 ATS at home, and closed out their season with a horrendous 2-7 ATS mark in their final nine games... the fact that Pittsburgh struggled against Baltimore last week is also a big factor, as the Steelers are just 6-17-2 ATS after a non-covering effort at home... and after a tie or win where they failed to cover the spread, the Steelers have gone just 1-3-1 SU and 0-4-1 ATS this season, with their only SU win coming by a mere two points against the Jaguars...
Not only have the last two games in this series been decided by a mere field goal, but three of the last four games between these two (and five of the last seven) have been decided by a field goal or less... meanwhile, the Browns have been a team on the upswing while the Steelers are slowly making the fade from powerhouse to has-been... we all know how difficult it is to beat a team three times in the same season, and with two teams truly heading in different directions, we are calling for the Browns to come into Pittsburgh and stun the Steelers with a SU win and a ticket to Oakland for the AFC Divisional playoffs...
FINAL PREDICTION: CLEVELAND 23, PITTSBURGH 20