College football's best bets laying big points
By DAVID PAYNE
Teams that are used to being big favorites are conveniently good at covering big spreads.
In the last five seasons, the 10 teams most often favored by 20 or more points are 112-78 against the spread (ATS) in those games.
Only one of the 10 teams, LSU, has a losing ATS record when favored by 20 or more. The Tigers are 9-10 ATS as big favorites.
At 14-7 ATS, Louisville has the highest winning percentage as a big favorite. But 13 of those covers came during Bobby Petrino’s tenure. The Cardinals have rarely deserved to be favored period, let alone by 20, under coach Steve Kragthorpe.
Which teams have the goods to lay the wood this season?
Here are five capable candidates:
Texas Christian Horned Frogs
The Horned Frogs rolled over lesser opponents last season, going 5-0 ATS as favorites of at least 20 points.
Coach Gary Patterson has his starting quarterback, top rusher and top two receivers back from that team.
TCU is going to put up points against the lackluster defenses of the Mountain West. If the defense continues its opportunistic ways (+13 in turnovers last year), the Horned Frogs will post their fair share of blowouts.
Games to note: vs. SMU, Oct. 3; vs. Colorado State, Oct. 17; at Wyoming, Nov. 21; vs. New Mexico, Nov. 28.
Iowa Hawkeyes
The Hawkeyes love to punish lesser opponents at home. They’ve covered in 13 of their last 14 home games when favored by more than three touchdowns.
With an elite offensive line, look for Kirk Ferentz’s club to overpower, wear down and put away weaker opponents in the second halves this year.
Games to note: at Northern Iowa, Sept. 5; vs. Arkansas State, Oct. 3; vs. Indiana, Oct. 31.
Penn State Nittany Lions
The Nittany Lions’ recent resurgence has been spurred by an offensive upgrade. Offensive coordinator Galen Hall came over from Florida in 2004 and instantly jumpstarted Joe Pa’s stale attack. PSU has averaged more than 30 points in three of Hall’s four seasons, including a high of 38.9 last season.
With senior quarterback Daryll Clark and leading rusher Evan Royster returning, the Nittany Lions should continue to put up big numbers this season.
They’ve covered in nine of their last 10 games as at least 20-point favorites.
Games to note: vs. Akron, Sept. 5; vs. Temple, Sept. 19; vs. Indiana, Nov. 14.
Oklahoma State Cowboys
The Cowboys from yesteryear had a tendency to play down to the level of their competition. But not recently.
Under coach Mike Gundy, OSU is 5-1 ATS as a favorite of at least 20 points.
With an ultra-explosive offense featuring possibly four high NFL draft picks, the Cowboys have the ability to overwhelm opponents.
Games to note: vs. Rice, Sept 19; at Grambling, Sept. 26.
Nevada Wolf Pack
Coach Chris Ault’s Pistol offense is firing on all cylinders. The Wolf Pack averaged 37.6 points last season, the most in Ault’s five-year tenure.
It’s a fast-paced attack that has the ability to tire out defenses. Quarterback Colin Kapernick is in his third season running the offense and has most of primary weapons back.
The Wolf Pack is 4-1 ATS as 20-point favorites under Ault.
Game to note: at Utah State, Oct. 17.