CSU/UVA write-up

Colorado St. 28 VIRGINIA (-2.5) 27
07:30 AM Pacific Time Thursday, Aug-22
Colorado State managed another bowl birth and a 7-5 record last season despite being out-gained by an average of 72 total yards per game. That's how good a coach Sonny Lubick is. Lubick's Rams have a long string of winning seasons and this year';s version will be much improved. The Rams were better offensively last year after inserting mobile quarterback Bradlee Van Pelt as the starter and Van Pelt's throwing numbers could get better this season despite the loss of big play receiver Pete Rebstock. While Van Pelt's throwing numbers should be just mediocre, his great leg work (580 net rushing yards at 5.4 ypr) makes him an above average quarterback. Van Pelt will not be the only set of impressive legs the Rams have in the huddle this year, as running backs Cecil Sapp (1st Team All-MWC in 2000; injured last season) and Henri Childs (938 yards at 5.3 ypr last year) will give CSU a formidable rushing attack. The rushing attack should work very well in this game against a Cavaliers defensive front that was a bit worse than average stopping the run last year (4.6 yards per rushing play allowed) and doesn't appear to have improved in that regard this season with the loss of all 3 starters from last year's defensive line and the ineligibility of stud linebacking recruit Ahmad Brooks (listed among the top 5 incoming freshman LB's in the nation). Virginia's secondary was horrible last year (7.9 yards per attempt allowed), but that unit should be much better this season with added experience and one of the ACC's best corners in Art Thomas. Of course, limiting the Rams' pass attack won't do the Cavs any good if they can't stop them from running the ball with ease and I expect Colorado State to score a good number of points in this game.

Virginia's offense should be able to keep up as quarterback Matt Schaub has a very good receiving corps to play catch with, including standout Billy McMullen, who caught 83 passes last season. The Cavaliers' pass-attack averaged only 5.7 yards per pass play last season (6.1 yppp is the national average), but I expect a bit better than average aerial numbers this year. Virginia had just an average rushing attack last season (4.3 yards per rushing play against teams that allowed 4.3 yprp) but the production of their running backs should improve behind an offensive line that began to gel at the end of the 2001 campaign. However, the Cavs' rushing stats benefited from the scrambling of departed quarterback Bryson Spinner, who averaged over 6 yards on his scrambles. Overall, the Cavaliers rushing attack appears to be mediocre at best and their offensive success in this game will depend on their ability to take advantage of a questionable Rams' secondary that lost 3 quality starters from last year's unit. Colorado State will be much tougher to run against this year after injuries to the front 7 led to an uncharacteristically poor run defense last season. Overall, I rate the Rams as average defensively and the Cavs should be able to move the ball through the air. While my ratings favor Virginia by a point on their home field, I will side with Colorado State on the basis of Sonny Lubick's incredible record as an underdog or pick. Since the middle of Lubick's first season in '93, the Rams are an incredible 24-6-1 ATS and 19-12 straight up as an underdog or pick in regular season games.

via Dr. Bob