Do Your Homework on College Basketball Bets
For many bettors the college basketball season is all about the March Madness championship series, and everything leading up to it is irrelevant.
``It is often said that the only people who bet on college hoops in November and December are people who really love their school, total degenerates and the sharpest of sharp gamblers,'' says Chris David, sports editorial director for the online sports betting information site VegasInsider.com.
Bookmakers tend to agree. The maximum bet limits on National Collegiate Athletic Association basketball at Las Vegas's bookies are as low as $500 in some casinos and are no higher than $3,000, unless you are a proven long-term loser.
The caution with which the linesmakers approach college basketball should give you a clue it's a good sport to focus on as a bettor. Indeed, after baseball it's the sport that linesmakers regard as most winnable by the informed gambler.
In consultation with some of America's top bettors, I have come up with some golden rules for betting on college hoops at this time of year:
1. Don't expect the big schools to care about results at this time of year.
If you are the coach of University of California, Los Angeles, or North Carolina or Memphis, then winning big before Christmas is not your priority. What you are trying to do is work out who your starters will be come March Madness and who are the key backup players.
``A big team with a lot of returning players will not be concerned about covering the point spread at this time of year,'' said Jason Logan, NCAA basketball analyst for handicapping Web site Covers.com. ``Coaches fool around with the starting lineup, and bench players get a lot more run-out than you might expect. The result is not what counts in these games. It's about allowing rookie players to prove themselves.'' So don't bet on the big- name teams simply because they did well at March Madness last year.
2. Don't underestimate the importance of home-court advantage.
Home-court advantage is absolutely crucial in college basketball. Seek out teams that have a reputation for an intimidating atmosphere and a rowdy student section. Then find the schools that are playing there that have a lot of freshmen or inexperienced players. Then bet against the visitors.
``People are so used to seeing college players perform well on the big stage at March Madness that they forget that these are only kids and a few stinging comments from the sidelines will put even the best player off his game,'' said Davis at VegasInsider.com. ``The atmosphere at some courts can be really intimidating, especially if the student section is right next to the bench.''
3. Look for revenge scenarios.
Schools that have been on the wrong end of an upset in the last two seasons are usually out for revenge. When Texas A&M beat No. 6 Kansas 69-66 at the Allen Fieldhouse last February for their first win there in the last 32 visits, it set up an almighty revenge game for this season.
Kansas Jayhawks fans are already fully focused on their meeting on March 8, and you can be pretty sure that coach Bill Self will want to win big to get revenge. Linesmakers rarely take the revenge factor into account enough, and when you know a school wants to win big then it is well worth betting on them.
4. Know your school timetables.
Athletes are scholars too (don't laugh). There will be weeks where college basketball players have to pay more attention to their studies than their sport. Finding out when the key examination weeks are can give some very good clues for bettors. This information can be hard to find, but is one of the most useful indicators of a sudden dip in a team's performance. Remember to make sure their opponents aren't being tested at the same time.
5. Find the small schools with no history of good performance.
Remember when Gonzaga was an almost unknown school for basketball? Who expected Davidson to be any good last season? Certainly no one could have expected the Davidson Wildcats to improve so much that they are a top-25-ranked school this season. Or could they?
Small schools that suddenly get a new coach or a core of players who start producing surprising results should be closely followed by bettors because linesmakers tend to take a long time to catch up with a quickly improving school.
Betting lines are made partly on form but partly based on reputations and how the public is likely to perceive a team's strength. Davidson went 29-9-1 against the point spread last season as they kept learning and improving every game. Identifying these schools early can produce consistent profits throughout a college basketball season.
Winning on college basketball is relatively easy. As with college itself, the more study you put in, the more you'll get out of it.
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