BIG TEN PREVIEW
By Doc
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The run for the Big Ten Conference championship is wide open. Looking into my crystal ball, I see as many as seven teams having a legitimate chance at the title.
My Big Ten predictions appear below.
Team Big Ten Overall
Record Record
Michigan State 6-2 10-2
Ohio State 6-2 9-3
Michigan 5-3 8-4
Wisconsin 5-3 9-4
Iowa 5-3 9-3
Illinois 5-3 8-4
Minnesota 4-4 8-4
Penn State 4-4 7-5
Purdue 2-6 5-7
Northwestern 1-7 4-8
Indiana 1-7 3-9
MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS
They may not have the most talent in the league, but a favorable schedule has to be the extra edge to put this team on top. Seven of the school’s first eight games will be played at home. The Spartans do not play Illinois or Ohio State, two upper-echelon teams. Michigan State had its share of tough luck last year as they had a rash of season-ending injuries. Those injuries could end up being a plus this year because many of the young guys gained valuable playing time. Depth should not be a problem.
Strengths: A wide-open offense that led the Big Ten last year in total yards per game. They return key personnel. QB Smoker must have a big year and stay healthy for the Spartans to win the title.
Weakness: The defense must improve, but the defensive line is very young. I have always questioned Coach Williams' ability to take this team to the top.
Favorable line winner: Sept. 28 - Michigan State over Northwestern in the conference opener for both teams. Spartans will be looking for revenge because they lost last year, 27-26. The Wildcats could sport a 3-1 record entering this contest, which would hold the line down.
Favorable line loser: Oct. 12 - Iowa over Mich. St. First road game for the Spartans against a good Hawkeye team at home. Michigan State could be 5-0 entering this contest and would be a sizeable road favorite.
OHIO STATE BUCKEYES
The Buckeyes also have a very favorable schedule. The school opens conference play with lightweights Indiana and Northwestern. Ohio State plays Michigan and Penn State at home and doesn't play either Michigan State or Iowa. Most of the real talent is in their freshman and sophomore classes, so they could be a year away. If a major problem exists it could be the offense, especially if someone doesn't step up and take the job as No.1 QB. The team will get a test early with a tough non-conference schedule.
Strengths: An outstanding receiving corps that is not only talented, but also deep. The defensive line is solid and also has speed. The defense returns eight aggressive players that did a great job of blitzing. They could challenge Michigan for the conference’s best defense before the season is over.
Weakness: The QB, tailbacks and offensive line are unproven. Kickers must improve, as their performance last year was horrendous.
Favorable line winner: Sept. 28 - Ohio State over Indiana in the Big Ten home opener for the Buckeyes. Could be 35-0 by half. Buckeyes will run it up because they will need momentum.
Favorable line loser: Sept. 21 - Ohio St. at Cincinnati in the Buckeyes’ first road game of the season. Will be favored over a very dangerous Bearcat team. A word to the wise, keep an eye on the Bearcats!
MICHIGAN WOLVERINES:
This year's Michigan team looks very similar to the 1997 team that won the National Championship. Similar to that year, they've made major coaching changes. A defense that could be the best in the Big Ten, if not in the land, and an offense that has a lot of questions. Yet, on paper, this offense has great potential. Any doubts the coaching staff has concerning the ability to score points could be answered early because the Wolverines have a tough non-conference schedule. Their Big Ten schedule isn't any easier, as the team will miss Indiana and Northwestern. However, they do play four of the Big Ten’s elite schools at home.
Strengths: Defense, defense and more defense. The secondary is deep and may be the best in the Big Ten. In addition, the defense has been playing together for a long time. The talent and experience is definitely there.
Weakness: Offense, offense and more offense. On paper, the offense lacks a big-play threat at wide receiver and running back. Even with a veteran returning, I question the ability at QB.
Favorable line winner: Aug. 31 - Michigan over Washington. Revenge gets the call here. Wolverine defense kept the Huskies in check last year and will, even more so, this time around. The Huskies questionable defense will get tested on the road. The Wolves lost the last two games of 2001. Need to get on the right track here.
Favorable Line Loser: Sept. 21 - Utah over Michigan. Utah will be much stronger than most people think. With the Wolverines coming off a Notre Dame encounter this will be a good spot to take the points, especially if the Wolves beat the Irish.
WISCONSIN BADGERS
This Badger team has more offensive talent than any team in the Big Ten. QB position is in good hands with fifth-year senior Brooks Bollinger. The offensive line looks to be as good as any in the country, anchored by cousins Ben and Al Johnson. The real question mark of this Badger team is the defense, especially the front four. They're young and raw with little playing experience. Reports are that this group may be as talented as any Alvarez has ever had.
Strengths: Should be able to score on any team, on land as well as through the air. Running game is more than adequate with Davis. The passing game could be awesome if Evans returns to full strength.
Weakness: The defense hasn't played together very much as a unit. Certainly could use a year like 1998 when the defense led the nation. After last year, I still have to question the special teams.
Favorable line winner: Oct 5 - Wisconsin over Penn St. This will be Wisconsin’s Big Ten opener and they will have a week's rest. The school has always done well against the
Nittany Lions and it will enter as a favorite. The Badgers are more than capable of handling this role.
Favorable line loser: Nov. 2 - Iowa over Wisconsin. This is a tough encounter for a Badgers’ team after playing Ohio State and Michigan State the two previous weeks. Could be the favorite, and I look for the Hawks to pull the upset.
IOWA HAWKEYES
This team is my sleeper choice to win the Big Ten. They've certainly been kicked around the last few years. Like Wisconsin, they have an offensive line that is huge and very talented. Hawkeye fans certainly would have to like their schedule, as they could easily be 4-0 after non-conference play. In Big Ten action, the Hawks play Michigan State and Wisconsin at home and don't have to play Ohio State or Illinois. The defense returns seven starters and the linebackers are young. However, the secondary is talented and experienced.
Strengths: An offensive line that has tremendous potential. Iowa ranked first in the Big Ten in scoring last year and with this wall intact, could repeat.
Weakness: Lack of experience at QB, running back and defensive line. Certainly the talent is there. However, they must jell early or the Hawks could be kicked around as in past years.
Favorable line winner: Sept. 14 - Iowa over Iowa St. The Cyclones have had the Hawks’ number lately. It's time for Iowa to get revenge in front of the home crowd.
Favorable line loser: Sept 28 - Penn State over Iowa. Big Ten home opener for Penn State. Lions must get this one, as their next two games are on the road against Wisconsin and Michigan. I can't see them winning against these two schools.
ILLINOIS FIGHTING ILLINI
Last year's Cinderella team, as they pulled the surprise and won the Big Ten title. The cupboard isn't empty, as they have a lot of talent returning. One must question how much the loss of QB Kittner will hurt. Big shoes to fill, as he threw 409 times, completing 221. His replacement seems to be Jon Beutjer, a transfer from Iowa. The defense lost two key starters. However, the Illini regularly rotated 10 linemen, so the experience is there. Their schedule is favorable, as they play Michigan and Ohio State at home and don't play Iowa or Michigan State. A brutal November schedule will certainly test just how good this Illinois team is.
Strengths: Team has the best receivers in the Big Ten, and maybe the country, with Lloyd, Young and Davis. Linebackers return and this alone makes the defense a unit to be reckoned with.
Weakness: Who will step up and continue to do the job QB Kittner did? Also lost heavy through graduation at the safety positions.
Favorable line winner: Sept. 20 - Illinois over Michigan. Big Ten opener for Illinois, so I do expect they will be ready. Wolves had help from the referees in their win two years ago at Illinois, but I don’t expect it this time around.
Favorable line loser: Oct. 5 - Minnesota over Illinois. The Illini could be coming off a big emotional Michigan victory and will be going on the road against a Minnesota club that will be confident early.
MINNESOTA GOPHERS
I would like to think this team has the best chance to improve its Big Ten record. The Gophers return their QB, a top running back and most of their defense. The Gophers haven't won a Big Ten title since 1960. Could this be the year? They could be 7-0 when playing Michigan State on Oct. 19. The Gophers’ last five games of the season are brutal. If they could win three of those five, it would certainly be a very successful season. I question whether they can handle the challenge, but I will keep a close eye on this team for strong phone releases. There seems to be a lot of optimism in Gopher-land, which could carry over to the team. An easy non-conference schedule should boost morale.
Strengths: The team seems to have found a good QB in Asad Abdul-Khaliq. He has a lot of press clippings, but now it's time for him to produce. I think he will. Good stable of receivers and running backs.
Weakness: The big question marks are in the offense and defensive line where a lot of youth will be asked to fill key positions. Fortunately for the Gophers, the secondary returns all four starters.
Favorable line winner: Oct. 12 - Minnesota over Northwestern. The school will be out to avenge last year’s 23-17 defeat. The ‘Cats' will be coming off two big games with Michigan State and Ohio State. Looks like all Gophers!
Favorable line loser: Oct. 19 - Minnesota at Michigan St. This could be the Gophers’ first real test of the season. They beat the Spartans last year and could have a lot of momentum at this stage of the season. However, I still can't see them pulling the upset.
PENN STATE NITTANY LIONS
There haven't been many smiling faces in Happy Valley for the past two years. Do I think this will change? This team will go to the top or continue to slide. There will not be an in-between, though downward seems more logical. The Lions do return eight offensive starters and seven defensive starters. There's lots of excitement for the return of QB Zach Mills. He must stay healthy because the two QB's behind him have never played. The defensive line has talent, but is very young. They may start as many as six freshmen and sophomores and they must play much better than the past two years. One wonders if Paterno isn't missing some of his veteran assistant coaches who have retired.
Strengths: There seems to be a more positive attitude to get back to the school’s former glory years. The offensive line returns four starters and should be much improved. Mills still seems to be the key to their success.
Weakness: Running game has been terrible, to say the least. Not a runner in camp who managed more than 400 yards last year. If that youth doesn't mold together as a defensive unit, they could surrender plenty of points. The offense is in no position to trade points.
Favorable line winner: Sept. 14 - Penn State over Nebraska. I think the Huskers are overrated. With two weeks to prepare, it would be a big victory to get this Nittany Lions’ program turned around.
Favorable line loser: Oct. 26 - Ohio State over Penn State. It’s never easy to play at the Horseshoe. Lions beat Ohio State by two points last year and will pay for that short victory. It'll be all Buckeyes here.
PURDUE BOILERMAKERS
This may be the most difficult team to predict. The numbers indicate the school could have success, as it returns nine starters on offense and eight on defense. Part of last year’s problem was an offensive line that had four new starters. Those four all return this year and that’s good because the name of the game is passing. That's where the real question arises. Just how good is QB Kyle Orton? His play, and the improving defense under Coach Tiller, could determine how far this team goes in the Big Ten standings.
Strengths: Offensive line, running game and a defense that returns eight starters (seven are two-year starters). If the offense becomes a machine, the Boilermakers could be a force.
Weakness: Offense was last in the Big Ten during the 2001 campaign. The team needs another "Brees". Will Orton be the one? Tough Big Ten schedule, with Iowa, Illinois and Michigan State on the road!
Favorable line winner: Nov. 23 - Purdue over Indiana. The Boilermakers won't let this one get away like they did last year. By this date, the Hoosiers shouldn't have much left.
Favorable line loser: Oct 5 - Iowa over Purdue. The Boilermakers could be 5-0 entering this contest. They beat the Hawkeyes at home last year, but I don’t see that occurring this time because Iowa will be ready for its first conference home game.
NORTHWESTERN WILDCATS
Most experts picked the Wildcats to win the conference last year. I didn't, and I see little improvement this year. This team is loaded with question marks. None of the QB's in camp have started a game. The running game has talent but very little experience and the experience on defense is even less. The non-conference schedule is somewhat easy and should give coach Walker time to play and test some of his youth. This is the type of team one has to be careful going against when they're a sizeable underdog. At times, the youngsters should certainly rise to the challenge.
Strengths: Offensive line could end up being very good, especially with seniors King and Roehl. If QB Straus has a good year, the Wildcats could surprise.
Weakness: Defense will once again be very young. They gave up big numbers last year and it could happen once again. The Wildcats have always been known for trading points. Sooner or later, that catches up with a team.
Favorable line winner: Oct 26 - Northwestern over Purdue. "Cats" have a five-year losing streak to the ‘Boilers'. They could be the underdog and will catch Purdue coming off big games with Illinois and Michigan.
Favorable line loser: Many! One that seems to stand out is Sept. 28 when the Wildcats travel to Michigan State in their conference opener. Wisconsin defeated the Spartans last year by one point. Look for revenge.
INDIANA HOOSIERS
The Hoosiers have a new head coach in Gerry Nidardo, who has had success at Vanderbilt and LSU. Taking over this program will be his biggest challenge. Not only will the Hoosiers have a new coach, but a new starting QB. That's right, Antwaan Randle El is gone. Indiana will have its share of problems and the QB position is a major one. Senior Tommy Jones certainly is the best available. He was the starter early last year, but was benched quickly and replaced by Randle El. Jones is a strong-armed, drop-back quarterback, which fits right into Dinardo's West Coast offense. It may be a tough offense to run because the receivers are young and very inexperienced. Nidardo will eventually get the job done, but this year will be painful.
Strengths: Certainly has to be the coaching staff. They will try to keep players focused and goals within reach. Should get a couple of needed wins in non-conference play.
Weakness: Just not a lot of talent in the skilled positions. It's certainly going to take time to learn the new offensive and defensive systems.
Favorable line winner: I couldn't really spot one. May look at the Hoosiers as a big ‘dog when other teams may take them lightly.
Favorable line loser - With all the new coaches and new offensive and defensive changes, it will be tough to travel to Utah for their second game of the season and record a win.
FINAL COMMENTS
When the season finally ends, I think we'll all agree that this was one of the most exciting years in the Big Ten. Week after week, I think we'll be shaking our heads with disbelief at some of the surprising results.
As most of you know, many of our strong selections come out of the Big Ten, so this type of year sets up perfectly for us.
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