DUMP bet (fri)>>>

Looking at today's starters i project 65% probability that they will complete 6 plus innings of work. Should this condition be met then there is a 78% probability that the UNDER will win the money. Duckworth for the Phillies is just 1-1 in his last 5 starts despite pitching winning baseball in 4 of those starts - especially his last. He is a pitcher who wins when he gets more GB outs than FB outs and conversely loses when reversed. Thus, it is essential that he works the plate in the lower part of the strike zone. One of his advances this season has been the ability to sneak a FB up in the strike zone early in the count catching hitters totally guessing. He pitches far better at home and does not have to get the first pitch strike to be effective. Hitters are moderately worse at 230 when 1-0 and 241 when behind in the count at 0-1. His control has steadily improved with a diminished number of free passes and increased number of K's over the season to date.

Lohse has had great success against right handed hitters, but left handed hitters have pounded him. One of the best left handed hitters in baseball is Abreu and this will be an interesting match-up. Jimmy Rollins is a solid switch hitter as well so the Phillies do have the talent to put pressure on him.Lohse has been very good on some starts against left handed hitters, but his delivery allows left handed hitters to get early reads on the pitch being thrown. Also look for bench player Michaels to get a rare start tonight as well. He was the hero in the come from behind victory in Game 2 of the CWS series.with that all said the UNDER is the DUMP bet.

WAGER [959] MINNESOTA TWINS u9-110 (K LOHSE -R/DUCKWORTH -R)