Early NCAAF line moves – Week 14
By Robert Ferringo
In nine weeks of tracking the most significant early line movements as an indicator of weekend success there have only been two weekends where playing on the games with the sharpest early action would have turned a profit. Last weekend was not one of them.
Clearly you should continue to fade and fade hard. The early-week steam moves are just 19-27 this season for a bankroll-busting 41.3-percent clip.
With that in mind, here are the college football games with the most significant early movements heading into Championship weekend:
UCLA at Southern California (4:30 p.m. ET, Saturday, Dec. 1)
Open: USC -16
Current: USC -20
Last year this game was for a ticket to the BCS Championship Game for the Trojans. This year it holds an invite to the Rose Bowl in the balance. It looks like oddsmakers are anticipating USC to dole out a large dose of revenge for UCLA’s upset last season. Further complicating the line is the health of Bruins QB Drew Olson, who can be spotty even when healthy. If there is no Olson, or if he can’t go the whole 60, this number will be covered with ease. If he does play, and plays well, then I’m not opposed to cashing on the Bruins – again.
Washington at Hawaii (11:30 p.m. ET, Saturday, Dec. 1)
Open: Hawaii -10
Current: Hawaii -14
Beware the letdown game. The Warriors are coming off the contest that they had built up as the defining point in their season. Now they have to man up and take on a Huskies team that is not only full of seniors but also has nothing to lose. Hawaii is just 2-6 against the spread (ATS) in its last eight games against the Pac-10 and Washington was good enough to beat Boise State by two touchdowns earlier this season.
Florida Atlantic at Troy (2 p.m. ET, Saturday, Dec. 1)
Open: Troy -15
Current: Troy -16½
There aren’t a lot of heavy movers this week. But in a matchup of the Sun Belt's No. 1 and No. 2 teams I was not only a little shocked to see such a thick number, but also a little surprised the early action was on the Trojans.
The numbers suggest that it does make sense. Troy has been an ATM machine this season, covering four straight and eight of 10, and the Trojans are a stellar 13-3 against the number over the past two years. Also, FAU is just 2-10 ATS as a road dog. Be wary either way with this one.
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