Fade Big Ten favorites, play Pac-10 dogs in Bowls
By: LT Profits Sports Group
The college bowl season is upon us, and we are certainly in a bowl underdog cycle right now with all bowl dogs hitting at a 55.0 percent rate against the spread since 2000. And by simply focusing on certain conference profiles, out winning percentage increases substantially.
Here are some of the best play on/fade trends for the 2007 postseason on the college gridiron.
Fade Big Ten favorites, play Pac-10 dogs in Bowls
One common shortcut theory in lieu of actually handicapping these games is to simply bet the underdogs in all bowl games, since they should have the advantage when two teams that are unfamiliar with each other square off. As simplistic as that sounds, history shows that doing just that will keep you in the game with a slight profit, but you will not break the bank either as all bowl underdogs are 269-231-10, 53.8 percent against the spread since 1985. Please note that this assumes passing on games that are rated “Pick’em”. At that rate, you would have picked up 14.90 units in 22 bowl seasons, which is chunk change but still beats losing.
However, there has certainly been a cyclical pattern to the success of bowl underdogs, and we are in a strong dog cycle right now. Since the 2000 season, bowl dogs have improved to 120-98-4, 55.0 percent ATS, which is certainly a nice bankroll-builder by itself, but we have found that focusing on certain conferences that have done well as underdogs and those that have done poorly as favorites have improved that winning percentage even more.
For example, did you know that simply playing on Pac-10 underdogs in bowls the last seven years has gone 11-3, 78.6 percent ATS, or that simply fading Big Ten favorites is a fantastic 14-2, 87.5 percent? We analyzed all the conferences since the 2000 season, and have come up with a list of five conferences that have been strong “Play Ons” as underdogs and four conferences that have been strong “Play Againsts” as favorites. Then, at the end of this article, we have summarized the 2007 bowls in regards to how the conference angles apply, using lines that current as of December 6.
BOWL GAMES ONLY since 2000
Bet ON as Underdogs:
CONFERENCE W L Pct.
Pac-10 11 3 78.8%
ACC 19 6 76.0%
WAC 7 3 70.0%
Big Ten 20 11 64.5%
SEC 17 10 63.0%
Bet AGAINST as Favorites (records are FADE records):
CONFERENCE W L Pct.
Big Ten 14 2 87.5%
Pac-10 16 9 64.0%
Big East 8 5 61.5%
Big 12 23 16 59.0%
2007 DUAL QUALIFIERS
These are bowls where a “Play On” underdog is facing a “Play Against” favorite
Thursday, December 27, 2007
Holiday Bowl: Arizona State +1½ vs. Texas (On Pac-10/Vs. Big 12)
Friday, December 28, 2007
Emerald Bowl: Maryland +4 vs. Oregon State (On ACC/Vs. Pac-10)
Monday, December 31, 2007
Sun Bowl: Oregon +6½ vs. South Florida (On Pac-10/Vs. Big East)
Insight Bowl: Indiana +4 vs. Oklahoma State (On Big Ten/Vs. Big 12)
Tuesday, January 1, 2008
Cotton Bowl: Arkansas +3 vs. Missouri (On SEC/Vs. Big 12)
Gator Bowl: Virginia +6 vs. Texas Tech (On ACC/Vs. Big 12)
Rose Bowl: Illinois +13 vs. USC (On Big Ten/Vs. Pac-10)
2007 SINGLE QUALIFIERS
Saturday, December 22, 2007
Papa John’s Bowl: Southern Miss +11 vs. Cincinnati (Vs. Big East)
New Mexico Bowl: Nevada +3 vs. New Mexico (On WAC)
Las Vegas Bowl: UCLA +6½ vs. BYU (On Pac-10)
Wednesday, December 26, 2007
Motor City Bowl: Central Michigan +8½ vs. Purdue (Vs. Big Ten)
Friday, December 28, 2007
Champs Sports Bowl: Michigan State +3½ vs. Boston College (On Big Ten)
Saturday, December 29, 2007
Liberty Bowl: Mississippi State +3 vs. Central Florida (On SEC)
Alamo Bowl: Texas A&M +5 vs. Penn State (Vs. Big Ten)
Monday, December 31, 2007
Armed Forces Bowl: Air Force +3 vs. California (Vs. Pac-10)
Music City Bowl: Florida State +1 vs. Kentucky (On ACC)
Chick-Fil-A Bowl: Auburn +2 vs. Clemson (On SEC)
Tuesday, January 1, 2008
Outback Bowl: Wisconsin +3 vs. Tennessee (On Big Ten)
Capital One Bowl: Michigan +10 vs. Florida (On Big Ten)
Sugar Bowl: Hawaii +9½ vs. Georgia (On WAC)
Saturday, January 5, 2008
International Bowl: Ball State +10 Rutgers (Vs. Big East)
Monday, January 7, 2008
BCS Championship: Ohio State +5 LSU (On Big Ten)