THE FINAL FOUR
At last, four teams have survived the madness and have earned the right to play for college basketball’s championship. This year Oklahoma, Indiana, Kansas, and Maryland, along with the eyes of the rest of the basketball world, will converge on the Georgia Dome in Atlanta. The 2002 tournament has certainly left most fans checking their brackets and scratching their heads. Let's take a look back at Final Four results from the past 15 years, the self-described "Modern Era" of college basketball, when long shots started counting for three points, and metal rims replaced peach baskets! By the way, what was that four corners offense thing all about anyway? Without further ado, enjoy the StatFox Final Four analysis:
Overall Favorite / Underdog Results
Since 1987, there have been 45 total Final Four games played, and the ATS results have been about as predictable as the flip of a coin. While the favorites have won 30 of the 45 games straight up, the underdogs own a 23-22 ATS edge. In the championship game, the favorites hold a slight advantage, having won 8 of 15 ATS and 12 of those 15 straight up. Currently, the favorites are on a 9-1 SU streak with an 8-2 ATS record. In fact, the only underdog to win in the past 10 games both SU & ATS was Connecticut, who beat Duke 77-74 as a 9.5 point dog in the 1999 Final.
Line Placement
It's clear that simply going with a favorite or underdog in a Final Four game will not lead to any kind of consistent success. Looking closer at the lines does reveal some secrets though. Here are a few interesting records based on line placement:
Favorites of 6.5 points or more are just 8-6 SU & 2-12 ATS
Favorites of 4-6 points are 11-3 SU & ATS
Favorites of less than 4 points are 11-7 SU & 9-9 ATS
Only twice since 1987 has a team favored by more than 6.5 points covered. In the 2000 Semis, Michigan State beat Wisconsin, 53-41 as an 8 point favorite and in the 1997 Semis, when Kentucky knocked off Minnesota, 78-69, laying 6.5. Furthermore, based solely on the final score, neither of these games were clear cut covers. Which leads to the next question, what game provided the cushiest ATS win? That would be the 1990 Championship game when UNLV throttled Duke 103-73 as a 4 point favorite. The Blue Devils gained their revenge a year later by dethroning the Runnin' Rebels in a 79-77 upset in the Semifinals.
Totals
In general, the OVER/UNDER Totals posted for the Final Four games are higher than most you would see in the regular season. The reason? We feel the oddsmakers trap exuberant bettors into thinking that since the best teams are playing, there should be more offensive fireworks. The avid fan should know by now though that defense wins championships (and semifinals)! To illustrate this point, of the 45 Final Four games being analyzed, there have been 28 UNDERS, 16 OVERS, and 1 PUSH. 30 of the games have had a total higher than 150 points. Of those, 20 were UNDERS. Not even UNLV's high-flying teams of the early 1990's were able to meet ridiculously inflated totals. In their 1990 Championship run, the Runnin' Rebels went UNDER in both the semifinal and championship game, each with a total in the 180's. Most NBA teams would be happy with that kind of production!
What to expect for 2002?
Historically speaking, going with underdogs of more than 6.5 points or favorites of 4-6 are the best ATS plays. The UNDER has proven to be the best Total wager. But as we all know, that's why they play the games.