Finding Value in Bodog NFL Player Props
by T.O. Whenham
Player props are fun. Spending some time now before the season starts looking at the over/under props that are available on players' expected statistical performance is a great way to isolate some potential profit opportunities. It is also a great way to get you thinking about how you expect the season to play out. Bodog has well over 300 different player props listed, so you can surely find something to strike your fancy regardless of who you like and who you don't. Here are several that struck me as particularly interesting:
Ladell Betts, RB, Washington - o/u 750 rushing yards. This seems like an absolute steal. Betts rushed for 1,154 yards last year, and he did it largely as a fill-in for the starter Clinton Portis. Portis was out with an injury last year, and he has missed much of training camp this year with injury. Given his strong performance last year, Betts is going to be given every opportunity to run. Washington will also be relying on the him significantly because Jason Campbell is an inexperienced starter. Barring injury, I certainly think Betts will go over 750 yards.
Brady Quinn, QB, Cleveland - o/u 1,850 yards passing. This comes down to how soon you think Quinn will start seeing significant action. Charlie Frye threw for 189 yards per start last season, Derek Anderson was in the same range. The offense hasn't changed significantly, so it likely isn't reasonable to expect Quinn to pass for an average of much more than 200 yards a game. That means that he would need to get at least nine starts to go over 1,850 yards. I could certainly see that happening.
Brett Favre, QB, Green Bay - 0/u 21.5 touchdowns. Favre had 18 touchdowns last year. In 2005 he had 20. His receiving corps certainly isn't improved this year, and the season starts with injury concerns for Donald Driver, the only real receiving threat the team has. Favre hasn't exactly looked inspired and crisp this preseason. Under seems appealing.
Anthony Gonzalez, WR, Indianapolis - o/u 450 receiving yards. Brandon Stokley was hurt for most of last season, but the previous year he had 543 yards as the third receiver in the Colts offense. With Stokley gone to Denver, the door is open for Gonzalez to fill that role. He is averaging more than 12 yards a catch in the preseason. Aaron Moorehead is getting more action so far, but that receiver has been with the team for four years and has never had more than eight catches, so Gonzalez can certainly pass him on the depth chart if he develops well. Over seems like a decent gamble.
Matt Hasselbeck, QB, Seattle - o/u 15 interceptions. Hasselbeck had 15 interceptions in 12 games last year. He had 15 interceptions in two of the three previous years. If you were going to go any way, it should probably be over.
Vernon Davis, TE, San Francisco - o/u 625 receiving yards. Davis should improve significantly from his 265 yards in eight games last year. The question is if he can improve this much. It could be a lot to ask. San Francisco's leading receiver only had 733 yards last year. TE Eric Johnson combined with Davis for 557 yards. Davis is healthy, and Johnson has moved on to New Orleans, so he will get lots of opportunities. What I am saying is that this one is a toss-up, and I'll pass.
Randy Moss, WR, New England - o/u 1,165 receiving yards. I like Moss a lot, but this number seems like a case of the public being a bit blinded by a big name. Moss hasn't had this many yards since 2003. He's 30, and both his durability and desire have to be questioned. If he is healthy, Brady will certainly enjoy having him on the team. Brady doesn't typically produce inflated receiver numbers, either. Reche Caldwell led the team last year with 760 yards. Deion Branch, a favored receiver of Brady, never passed 1,000 yards. The under seems like the reasonable choice.
Marion Barber III, RB, Dallas - o/u 825 rushing yards. I like the over. Barber is very talented, and I have a hunch that he is going to get his chance to shine this year. The Cowboys aren't particularly enamored with the other running back, Julius Jones, and seem already to be planning for life without him next year. That means Barber will be more of a focus in the future, and that future could start this season. Barber had 654 yards and 14 touchdowns last season, and he only started one game. His average of 4.8 yards per carry was impressive, and it was smaller than it could have been because of his goal line work. He's the better running option for the Cowboys, and I am willing to bet that he will get his chance to show it.
David Carr, QB, Carolina - o/u 3 starts. There is something inconsistent here. The over is favored by the public, but the same public favors Jake Delhomme to go over 3,325 yards passing. Delhomme threw for 2,805 yards in 13 starts last year. He would need to start more than 13 games to go over 3,325 yards. What I'm saying is that both things - 3,325 yards and more than 3 starts - can't happen. I'm betting that Delhomme will keep his act together and Carr will keep the clipboard in his hand. I'll take the under.
Edgerrin James, RB, Arizona - o/u 6 rushing touchdowns. This seems like a real opportunity. Last year, Edge had six touchdowns and he was behind an awful offensive line. This year a new coaching staff has brought a new focus on the line. James had significantly more than six touchdowns five different times when he was with the Colts. The over seems like a nice pick.
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NFL Coaching Props
by T.O. Whenham
NFL head coaches are an interesting breed. They are ego-driven maniacs. As the cliche goes, they get too much credit when things go right, and too much blame when they don't. In many ways their jobs are thankless, but they get paid so much that I don't at all feel bad for them.
Talking about coaches is always interesting, but finding ways to bet on them is even better. Bodog makes it possible. Heading into the start of the season, they have posted odds on head-to-head win total matchups of the new coaches coming into the league. Here's a look at the possibilities:
Bobby Petrino - This is easily the most interesting new coach to think about this year. At this time last year, Petrino was heading into the Big East season with the chance to lead Louisville to an undefeated season. He came within a game of that goal despite potentially crippling injuries, impressively won the Orange Bowl, and raised his value on the coaching market significantly. Then he jumped at a dream job. A talented, incredibly mobile franchise quarterback who has underachieved is the kind of thing that can make a coach a legend if he can turn him around. And there was a truckload full of cash, too.
But then this little thing about dogfighting came along. Michael Vick and his sky-high potential suddenly became Joey Harrington and his trail of disappointment. Understandably, the public jumped off the Falcons like rats off a sinking ship. That's likely a good instinct, but it could also be an opportunity. Harrington has looked good in the preseason, so he could outperform expectations. The other thing is that Petrino is a pretty good coach, and he has instilled a professional, winning attitude that was certainly lacking last year. Depending on your view, Petrino could do better than expected. Here are his props:
Petrino +0.5(-105) vs. Cam Cameron -0.5(-135) - Cameron is the clear favorite in his first year as a head coach. It's an interesting matchup because Cameron unsuccessfully interviewed for Atlanta before taking the Miami gig. It's also interesting that Petrino's quarterback was unceremoniously dumped by Miami after a disastrous 6-10 record last year. Miami has a long way to come back from the sad year they had last year, and Atlanta was actually a little better at 7-9. Petrino has a more illustrious resume than Cameron, and is certainly more highly regarded coming into the head coaching ranks. Cameron has no clear advantage at quarterback despite ditching Harrington as Trent Green is not only old, but he is looking his age. I'm not saying by any means that Petrino is a lock, or even a good bet. I'm just not at all convinced Cameron is good value at the price. Agree or disagree?
Petrino -110 vs. Lane Kiffin -130 - Under normal circumstances this would be an insult to Petrino. Kiffin is the youngest coach in the league, and many would argue that he's too young. He certainly wasn't prominent on the coaching radar before he was hired in Oakland. He comes into the season with big questions at quarterback, a draft pick that may never sign, a shocking lack of proven receivers, and a generally inept offense. He should have a pretty solid defense, but so did the Raiders last year, and that only earned them two wins. I'm pretty pessimistic about Atlanta, but I am really pessimistic about Oakland. At the very least, I don't see much value on Kiffin.
The other matchups:
Ken Whisenhunt (-120) vs. Cameron (-120) - This comes down to whether you have drank the Arizona kool-aid. The Cards were just 5-11 last year, but they have an entirely new and much needed coaching staff, a more experienced quarterback, and an improved offensive line. Some people seem to think that that is enough to get them into the payoffs. I'm not sure I buy that (actually I'm pretty sure I don't), but I do think that they will be significantly improved. They are certainly in the right hands under the guidance of Whisenhunt. If the Cards were to make the playoffs then a bet on Whisenhunt would likely be the winner here. That means that I would lean towards him.
Mike Tomlin -1.5(-130) vs. Whisenhunt +1.5(-110) - If you are bullish on the Cardinals then this is a good place to grab some value. Tomlin was a surprising hire, but one that has conducted himself well so far. He's a professional, and despite the fact that many of his players are practically his age he has managed to implement a tough practice routine for the team and avoid any public rebellion over it. The potential value, then, comes not from thinking that the Steelers can't win a lot of games, but rather if you think that Arizona can win enough games that it would be unlikely for Pittsburgh to win two more games to make this bet pay off.
Tomlin +1(-110) vs. Norv Turner -1(-130) - Turner may be the luckiest guy ever. Despite a far less than stellar coaching record, Turner was handed the keys to a team featuring the best player in the league and perhaps the most explosive offense. This isn't about rebuilding, it's about tweaking. If you believe that the Chargers magic hasn't faded significantly, then it makes sense that they will win at least one more game than the Steelers. The question is whether it's worth a bet at this price.
Turner -1(-140) vs. Wade Phillips +1(EVEN) - Everything I said about Turner vs. Tomlin applies here. Dallas could, and probably should, be as good or better than their 9-7 record of last year. San Diego will likely not be quite as good as their 14-2 of last year, but the question is how much. Dallas would have to get a lot better and/or San Diego would have to get a lot worse in order for a bet on Phillips to win. I'm not convinced that that is likely.
Tomlin +0.5(-130) vs. Phillips -0.5(-110) - This is probably the most evenly matched of all of the matchups. Both teams had decent records, but they were flawed. Both teams should be better than they were last year. They both have talented quarterbacks who should have improved, more consistent seasons. They both have reasonably talented rosters. Given the prices on the two coaches, there may be a bit more value in Phillips, but a solid case could be built for either depending upon your viewpoint.
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