Finding value in the last weeks of the NFL regular season
Covers.com
Professional football has many enduring qualities that tug at the heart of sports fans. Bone-jarring hits, inexplicable feats of athleticism and playing through cruel weather conditions are all common in the National Football League.
The league’s schedule is short compared to MLB or NBA. This is in part due to the physically pounding each player takes during the campaign. Each club has to prove it is worthy of a playoff berth in just 16 games.
Even with the shortened calendar there is still a good chunk of trivial contests at the tail end of the season. Already, half the league’s 32 franchises have been eliminated from the playoffs, and seven of the eight divisions have been clinched.
Coaches quickly shift their priorities once their club’s fate has been sealed – whether the result is good or bad. Younger players get a chance to prove themselves for next year, while veterans on playoff-bound squads are given time off to rest and heal.
“This is a very difficult time of year setting NFL lines,” says Peter Childs, an oddsmaker with Belmont. “Some teams are going all out to make the playoffs, while others are just looking to evaluate players for 2008. When setting lines this week, I had to measure each team’s situation and judge where each team was at and what they would bring to the table on Sunday.”
The Detroit Lions are a perfect example of a squad that might be giving up. They’ve been eliminated from the playoffs after losing six in a row. That streak includes last weekend’s 51-14 beat down at the hands of the San Diego Chargers.
“They are paid professionals,” Lions head coach Rod Marienlli said of his players to the Detroit News. “I have reminded them of that. For somebody to quit and be a professional player is inexcusable.”
Inexcusable yes, but still a reality.
Besides players hitting the snooze button, bettors must identify which coaches will play starters and which ease up. Indianapolis Colts coach Tony Dungy has shown he’s more worried about rest than rust. Now that the Colts have locked up the second seed in the AFC, will Dungy send in the scrubs?
“We’ve been in this situation before,” Dungy told the Indianapolis Star. “I’ve had some buddies on other teams that needed us to win, and it’s just too bad. I have to do what’s best for us. We’re not trying to lose a game, but if it’s better for us to sit guys out and stay healthy, we feel like we earned that. It’s a responsibility to our team to be as good as we can be when the playoffs start.”
Childs said he took extra care setting his line for the Colts’ game against the Houston Texans. He says he set the game at –6 ½, but under normal circumstances Indy would be favored by at least 10 points and possibly as high as 13.
“This time of the football season is the most difficult time of year to set solid numbers that won’t change much,” says Randy Scott, linesmaker for BetED. “In the last two weeks of the regular season you’ll see bigger line differences between books than any other time of the year.”
It may be trying times for the books, but that doesn’t mean bettors can’t net some extra holiday cheer.
Shane Catford, an oddsmaker with BetCRIS, says the action normally tapers off during the latter part of the schedule. Still, he insists the sharps pick up the slack.
Many wise guys depend on their research to determine how a coach will handle meaningless games. For every Dungy, there is a Bill Belichick who just won’t let up.
The New England Patriots head coach has been asked repeatedly whether he will continue to play his starters after a 14-0 start. Belichick has effectively said he won’t make any changes.
“Coach Belichick is not letting up,” Pats receiver Randy Moss told Sports Illustrated. “If you all think there’s any chance he is going to let up and give us a break, he’s not. Coach Belichick would never let a team like this get ahead of itself.”
Covers Expert Scott Rickenbach looks beyond which coaches are playing their best players. He says he looks for favorable matchups where the books may have ignored a heated rivalry.
“Since most squares tend to look for teams that need to win or teams that must win, this often can give value to an undervalued dog,” he says. “I like to look for divisional situations. A good example was Philly last week over Dallas.
“The Eagles were double-digit underdogs whose season was basically over and yet they played with plenty of emotion and got the outright win.”
So, one man’s junk is another man’s treasure. Either way, it all makes for plenty to consider as the NFL’s regular season winds down.