In this high scoring tournament, I am confidant the public will aggressively bet the ‘over’ this round, particularly those teams that have had the highest scoring games. Looking downward to the bottom of my game rotation schedule, I see the total on the UAB-Kansas battle opened at 155. And it may go higher.
The public remembers the UAB/Washington game where over 200 points were scored. Additionally, they remember the UAB/Kentucky game that opened 142, closed at 150 1/2, and still went ‘over’ with 151 points scored.
However, is the current total of 155 realistic? Prior to their NCAA Tournament games, UAB had played 18 straight games. All of these resulted in less than 157 points. Seventeen of these actually went “under†150 points!
Similarly, Kansas has seen 18 of its last 22 games go ‘under’ 155 points. The media is reporting that Kentucky lost the game largely because it allowed UAB to dictate the pace. Based on that, it would not surprise me to see Kansas look to slow the pace in this game. Playing close to home, Kansas should be able to dictate the overall tempo.
Even if the pace is quick, 155 points is a lot. It will take a pace of four points per minute to get this game to go ‘over’ and that is asking a lot. Of course, I am concerned that UAB will attempt to continue to push the pace.
Something that will make you say hmmmmm.
Thanks for the insight Salami!