Ajaccio- Chateauroux
We discussed both Chateauroux ahead of their Coupe de la Ligue meeting with Clermont at the end of last month, when I wrote .....
These two featured in the mini Ligue 2 pre season preview ....
Last year we started with a look back at how the previous season ended and what we traditionally expect over the opening round, when I wrote .....
Of the 12 teams in action today who played in Ligue 2 last season, Nimes 33 points, Le Havre 32, Dijon 31 and Caen 30 collected the most points over the second half of the campaign, Chateauroux with 21 and Istres with a woeful 15, the fewest.
Looking at the last ten matches, that pair again came bottom of the pile with an average of extactly one point each per start, Le Havre were far and away the best with 1.9 points per game.
Don't expect a goal fest, last season was high scoring by Ligue 2 standards, but opening day is traditionally tight, the 50 matches over the last five seasons have averaged exactly 2.0 goals, with 20 of those producing one or fewer goals.
Of the teams discussed in a positive fashion, Caen were promoted and Dijon finished 6th , both Chateauroux and Istres who were carrying over very poor form from the previous season were relegated, (Chat later reinstated) so let's start with a quick look at similar stats this time round.
Over the second half of the campaign, Clermont with 16 points and Auxerre with 18 performed the worse of the teams which remained in Ligue 2, infact, two of the relegaed teams collected more points over the final 19 games than that duo. Brest with 37 points, were far and away the best team through this period, followed by Niort (32) and Nancy (30).
I do not feel the last ten starts are quite as releveant, teams do up their game at the last minute when in trouble and others with nothing to play for, are going through the motions, but Brest were again strongest with 20 points, Nancy second with 18 and Angers bottom of the pile with 9 points. They are interesting, second at Christmas, Angers were in a downward spiral from then on and it is they, Auxerre and Clermont who look most vulnerable of the established Ligue 2 teams, especially if they start their season poorly .
So, coming into this season there was good reason to feel that these two were going to be amongst the weakest teams and after four matches, there has been little to swerve us away from that thinking, they have one win between them and that only because the pair met here 11 days ago with the hosts winning by the odd goal in five. Two struggling teams often results in goals and even at this early stage of the campaign, it is hard to view this pair as anything else, the home side have played poorly for two years and should be playing third tier football,the visitors for the whole of 2014. Clermont followed up conceding three here , by shipping four at home to Gazelec on Friday, they did score five themselves across the two games, but these two have already conceded 17 between them and it is hard to see either keeping a cleansheet against any L2 + opposition.
Chateauroux, who earned a late reprieve from relegation last season, followed that 3-1 defeat with a draw with Orleans, but we already know their strength is at home, on the road, they have won just once in 45 Ligue 2 starts, scoring an average of 0.73 goals per game and conceding 1.71 over that massive sample of matches and something very strange happens to them when they board that team bus.
Ajaccio appeared to have stopped the rot following relegation and a sluggish start to this campaign, they have kept three consecutive cleansheets in the league, collecting seven points, which included a confidence boosting derby win over GFCO and also managed to sandwich inbetween an eyecatching 4-1 win at league leaders Troyes in the cup, regardless of the respective teams approach in that game, it will have done wonders for the mood at the club and they can start to make teams fearful of coming to play here on the island, like they were in their Ligue 2 promotion season (13-5-1 and only six goals conceded ).
Up front, they have two experienced strikers at this level in Nicolas Fauvergue (pictured) and Dennis Oliech , alongside two very promising youngsters in Issa Baradji ( 3 goals in 150 minutes of L1 action as an 18 yo in a struggling team) and Mouaad Madri and the win at Troyes was an indication of the offensive potential they pocess. Today they will be without suspended midfielder Claude Gonçalves which is a loss, but one they can overcome against such poor travelling opponents and one very short handed today.
Chat arrive without suspended central defender Fabien Boyer and midfield starlet Hamza Sakhi, who at only just 18 yo is getting a lot of attention and also missing hugely experienced fellow midfielder Sébastian Roudet and holding player Maxime Darrieux to injury, which leaves then VERY short across the middle of the park and this is an excellent opportunity for the hosts to close in on the top three
1.75 units Ajaccio -0.75 ball 2.19 asian line/Sportmarket.
Ajaccio : Scribe, Sissoko, Marester, Quintillà, Kanté, Zubar, Babiloni, Coulibaly, Cavalli, Madri, Pedretti, Lesoimier, Fauvergue, Baradji, Oliech, Abergel.
Châteauroux : Bonnefoi, Souchaud - Bonnart, Houtoundji, Nestor (cap.), Obiang, Plessis, Zola, Chamed, Mauricio, Kamara, Thil, Bain, Dudouit, Makengo, Rivas.