FREE Sunday NFL Opinion Selection
Cleveland +6½ over GREEN BAY
Two teams looking to get up off the mat take the field in Green Bay on Sunday, as the Packers host the Cleveland Browns. Brett Favre and company were 17-3 losers to the Lions in the Motor City last Sunday, as Favre struggled, the running game never got going, and top wideout Javon Walker was lost for the season with a knee injury. Also looking to savor the taste of victory for the first time are the Browns, who denied first-year head coach Romeo Crennel a victory in his debut by falling, 27-13, at home to the Cincinnati Bengals.
Browns QB Trent Dilfer was hot-and-cold last week, completing 26-of-43 passes for 278 yards and a touchdown, but also tossing a pair of interceptions, coughing up a fumble, and taking the loss. Reuben Droughns will get his first start in the backfield, which should give the ground game a little more stability.
Favre never could get on track last week as he couldn’t find the end zone and tossed 2 INTs. The offensive line was playing its first game without longtime guards Mike Wahle and Marco Rivera, both of whom departed via free agency in the offseason. Fill-ins Adrian Klemm and Will Whitticker both struggled in the contest, as Favre was sacked 4 times after getting taken down just 14 times in all of 2004.
With the O-line a work in progress, Favre struggling, and Javon Walker going down for the year it’s looking like the worst fears of Packers’ fans are being realized, and their beloved team could really struggle this season. While they may still be better than Cleveland, Romeo Crennel has brought fresh energy to the team and we expect the Browns to continue playing hard for him.
Some technical numbers certainly suggest that Cleveland will be competitive here. Off a loss of 9+ points, the Brownies are a perfect 5-0 ATS all-time vs. opponents also off a 9+ point loss, including 4 SU wins since Week 8 of their inaugural season in 1999. Meanwhile, the Packers are 0-6 ATS at home off an underrdog loss and playing an opponent off a home dog loss.
A couple of PRO INFO SPORTS NFL Power Systems also provide a nice dichotomy of situations here. Game 2 road underdogs of less than 10 points off a home dog loss of more than 3 points are a perfect 12-0 ATS since 1993 vs. opponents not coming off a win as a division underdog of at least a TD, qualifying Cleveland as a play-ON team. Meanwhile, Game 2 & 3 non-division home favorites off a road underdog SU loss in its last game are 0-11 ATS vs. an opponent off a home SU loss in its last game.
Big underdogs can do surprising things for a new coach, as San Francisco and Miami showed last week. While the Browns may not get the SU win here, we do like their chances to at least cover the spread.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: GREEN BAY 24 CLEVELAND 21