Friday Public Action Report
by T.O. Whenham
Last week's Public Action Report wasn't as successful from top to bottom as many we have seen, but it did have its highlights. Most notably, the line movement in the Texas Tech upset over Oklahoma was big enough to give us a hint of what may have been up. Of course, the sportsbooks couldn't have known that Oklahoma QB Sam Bradford would go down early with an injury, but if you watched that game you'd know that Bradford may not have been enough to overcome the dominance of Texas Tech on that night. They were clearly prepared for the game, and they played as if they were possessed. The other game that the public action tipped off was equally compelling. The public liked the Saints against the Texans - they clearly haven't figured out how frustrating this team is right now. Despite that, the line opened with the Saints as slight favorites and ended up with Houston favored by a point. Matt Schaub looked very solid in his return to action, and the Texans barely broke a sweat in the easy win.
College football
Alabama (+5.5) at Auburn (Saturday, Nov. 24, 8:00 p.m.) - The Iron Bowl is one of the most bitter, hotly contested rivalries there is, and the new presence of Nick Saban at the helm of the Tide should only ratchet up the intensity. The public in this game, or at least three out of four of them, like the home team. Despite that, the line opened at six, and stayed there for quite a while, but has now started to drop down to 5.5. Though that's not a huge shift in the line, the mere fact that it is happening is worthy of note. It's very reasonable to assume that the public would be more negative in their view of Alabama than they should be given that they are coming off three-straight wins including a very embarrassing and high profile upset at the hands of Louisiana-Monroe. Auburn is coming off a humiliating defeat of its own at the hands of Georgia, though, and Alabama should have a lot of players returning to action after a suspension, which could give them a boost, so the game isn't as one sided as it may first appear. The books clearly don't fear Auburn.
Ball State (-8.5) at Northern Illinois (Saturday, Nov. 24, 4:00 p.m.) - Ball State has the overwhelming support of the public, with more than 90 percent of the action on them. It's not a surprise if you take a look at the two teams. Despite that, the line is falling from the opening of nine to the current 8.5. When the action on a game is so one-sided that is definitely not what you would expect. Northern Illinois only has one win in it's last seven, and two overall, while Ball State has six wins, and comes off a big win over Toledo last week. Ball State is also a very solid 7-3 ATS on the year. There are a couple of factors to explain this movement, though. First, Northern Illinois is better than their record indicates - they have only won twice, but they have covered four games including their last two. More significantly, Ball State has nothing to play for, and has to be frustrated by that. They are out of the hunt in MAC West despite having the same record as division-leading Central Michigan because of their conference record, and may not be playing at their full intensity because of that. That could open the door for a cover by the weaker team.
NFL
Minnesota (+7) at New York Giants (Sunday, Nov. 25, 1:00 p.m.) - The Vikings only have the support of 18 percent of the bettors, but the books seem to like them more than that. Despite the one-sided action the line has moved from the opening of 7.5 down to the key number of seven. That makes it easier to get a push, and makes the Giants that much more attractive. That obviously doesn't make sense given the action, so Minnesota is worthy of attention. The Vikings have been inconsistent of late, and they will likely be without Adrian Peterson again, but they have covered two of their last three. The Giants covered their last time out after not covering twice in a row, but they haven't been overwhelming since their trip to play Miami in London. Both teams rely on their run offense, and both teams have very good run defenses (the best in the league in the case of Minnesota). If Minnesota can establish dominance on this front then they could cover here. It seems as if the books agree that that is a real possibility.
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Where the action is: Week 13 line moves
COVERS.com
Miami Redhawks at Ohio Bobcats – Home underdog is now the favorite
The Redhawks won their last two games as a favorite but didn’t cover the spread, which could partially explain the line movement for this weekend’s MAC East showdown.
Ohio opened as a 2½-point home underdog across the board, but the game was at a pick ‘em by Friday. Offshore sportsbooks had the Bobcats -1 and even -1½ by Saturday morning. The game kicks off at 2 p.m. ET.
Tulsa Golden Hurricane at Rice Owls – Stormy weather quickly reduces sky-high total
Neither Tulsa nor Rice has shown much interest in defense this year, hence the 83½-point total at the beginning of the week. Bettors have caught wind of the thunderstorms moving into Houston, however, and Covers.com can’t keep up with the downward movement. By Saturday morning the total was down to 78 points. Expect an even more drastic reduction before the 3 p.m. ET kickoff.
Meanwhile, bettors steadily pounded Tulsa during the week and transformed the Golden Hurricane from 11½-point road favorites at the release of the line to 14-point favorites at some books by Saturday morning.
Connecticut Huskies at West Virginia Mountaineers – Big spread widens overnight
UConn still has a shot at the Big East but bettors aren’t giving them much of a shot. The Huskies opened as 17-point road underdogs for this weekend’s trip to Morgantown, a number that held steady for the bulk of the week. By Saturday morning, however, would-be West Virginia backers were looking at a 19½-point spread.
Kickoff from Mountaineer Field is at 3:30 p.m. ET.
Duke Blue Devils at North Carolina Tar Heels – Bettors like the Heels laying points
The Victory Bell annually goes to the winner of this Tobacco Road showdown and the bulk of bettors are saying the Tar Heels take it this year. The game kicks off at 3:30 p.m. ET.
UNC opened as two-touchdown favorites and that number stayed constant through the week. The Tar Heels money came in and made them a 15½-point favorite by Saturday morning.
Washington State Cougars at Washington Huskies – Line approaches key number in Apple Cup
The Huskies opened as 5-point home favorites over their in-state rivals, a spread that has since bloomed to 6½ points. At least one offshore sportsbook has bumped the spread to -7, a key number for patient Wazzu backers.
The 7 p.m. ET kickoff from Seattle leaves plenty of time to check on further movement.
Alabama Crimson Tide at Auburn Tigers – Bama backers abound despite recent results
Apparently a loss to a Sun Belt school isn’t as catastrophic as Alabama head coach Nick Saban thought.
The Crimson Tide opened as 6-point underdogs for tonight’s Iron Bowl, which kicks off from Auburn at 8 p.m. ET. Alabama bettors showed up overnight and the Tide currently sit at -4½ points.
The total for the SEC West rivalry has also dropped a half-point to 44½.