FRIDAY Service Plays-St Paddy's

LT's Lock
Todays Selection: Kent St. +6'
This year's record: 211-148-8
Current streak: 1 loss
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Alan Boston
(per Leroys sports hour on 1460am Las Vegas)

Huge -
Bucknell plus 5
Bradley plus 8 (thats what he got it at)

Medium -
Wisconsin pick
George Mason plus 5
Southern Ill plus 5

Small leans
NC State 2
Ky 2

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Friday March 17th 2006
-- College Basketball --
12:25p

LT Profits
Bad Day Yesterday as well...

Northwestern State
+7.0 (-110) / 2 units

CBB NORTHWESTERN STATE +7 (Fri., 3/17, 12:25 ET) – Northwestern State is one of those lower seeded teams that can be very dangerous in the first round while playing with nothing to lose. Remember that this team finished at 25-7, and the Demons were a fun team to watch as they averaged 75.8 points per game on 46.2% shooting overall including 36.3% shooting from 3-point land. This team is the polar opposite stylistically of the plodding Big Ten teams that Iowa is used to facing, and the Hawkeyes may have a tough time adjusting to the pace of this contest. The end result should be a much tighter game than many people expect, and we would not be at all surprised by an outright shocker here.

12:30p

LT Profits
Wisconsin
+1.0 (-110) / 2 units

CBB WISCONSIN +1 (Fri., 3/16, 12:30 ET) – Both of these teams were disappointments in their conferences, and both had difficulty on the road this season. However, while the overall statistics for these clubs are very similar, the bottom line is that the Big Ten was much stronger top to bottom than the Pac-10, and we will give the Badgers the nod here because of that fact. Also, Wisconsin actually has the higher average margin of victory, winning its games by an average score of 71.0-64.7, as opposed to 72.9-68.1 for the Wildcats.

9:30p

LT Profits
Bradley
Kansas
u134.5 (-110) / 2 units

CBB BRADLEY/KANSAS UNDER 134.5 PLAY OF THE DAY (Fri., 3/17, 9:30 ET) – The Missouri Valley Conference was one of the lowest scoring conferences in the country, and Bradley has done its part to contribute to this trend. The UNDER was 4-1 in the last five Bradley games overall, and the Bears three MVC Tournament games saw TOTAL point outputs of 105, 112 and 101 points respectively. Also, the UNDER was 4-0 in the last four Bradley non-conference games of the regular season. You can bet that the Bears will again try to slow the pace of this game down to a crawl to give themselves a chance vs. this more athletic Kansas team. The young Jayhawks got better and better defensively as the season went on, and they ended up limiting their opponents to just 37.0% shooting from the floor overall. Given that this figure dropped to 36.7% in the last five games while Bradley held its last five foes to an even better 35.4% shooting, we are expecting points to be at a premium in this contest.

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Bettorsworld
Key releases
Northern Iowa +4 over Georgetown
George Mason +4.5 over Mich St
Kansas -6.5 over Bradley
So Illinois + 4 over Wva
Cal +1.5 over NC St

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Digger Phelps
upset of the day
Kent St

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Dick Vitale
upset of the day
N Iowa
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RAS
1 Unit Kentucky
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Aussie Boys
Kentucky
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SPECIALY SPORTS
POD 25* UAB +3
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Oracle
Geo Mason
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Lenny Stevens

20 star west virginia 245pm
20 star uab 945 pm
10 star wisconsin 1230pm
10 star kent state 710pm

Lenny's NCAA tourney record is 3-1, 1-1 with his 20 star plays

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GAMBLER'S WORLD

Game: Kent State @ Pittsburgh on Mar 17 2006 7:10PM
Prediction: Kent State

Current Line: n/a
Over/Under: n/a
Reason: News flash; Kent St. is good. Despite a 25-8 SU, and 19-9-1 ATS record, the Golden Flashes are getting little respect here against a Pittsburgh team who of course makes it’s living in the feared Big East. Well the Big East is not the scariest conference in basketball as far as we’re concerned, and the MAC champs really have something to prove here. Simply put, this is too many points. We’ll take them with Kent St.

The Flashes rolled through the MAC tournament at 3-0 SU and ATS, and of course earned their way here by winning the round robin. In fact, the team’s only loss of late came at Akron. Otherwise, they’ve been rolling. At 19-3 since the turn of the calendar, this team is ready to gain revenge for a pair of losses to Big East teams in their non-conference schedule. The Panthers will not run away from the Flashes here.

Pittsburgh of course lost in their tourney final to a hot Syracuse team. Defensively they’ve been stellar all season, and even better of late at just 59.4 PPG allowed in their last five. However, the Flashes are no pushovers under their own hoop, and hold all challengers to just 65 per outing on the season. For the record, Pitt has failed to hit 65 in four of their last six games while Kent St. has been consistently pouring in 70-plus. Again, this performance comes against some pretty respectable competition in the MAC and not some wishy-washy conference.

The combination of the Panthers being over-valued, and the Flashes being under-valued has us siding with the underdog in this contest. Expect it be tightly contested, as well as fairly low-scoring. It will be tough for the favored Panthers to run away with this one, and they’re not at all beyond getting upset in this first-round battle. Play Kent St.

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VEGAS EXPERTS
Oral Roberts at Memphis
Friday, March 17, 2:50 PM EST
MEMPHIS

No #16 has ever beaten a #1 so you can chalk up a win by the Memphis Tigers here. But a win by how many? Oral Roberts lost 11 games this year, about half of them by double digits. Those included a 12-point loss to Southwest Missouri, a 19-point loss to Villanova, a 20-point loss to Valparaiso and a 14-point loss to Montana. Memphis racked up 30 wins this year, many of those by double digits. It beat Tulane by 40, Southern Miss by 39, Tulsa by 23, UAB by 11 and Houston by 14. So the Tigers are more than capable of winning by a margin. Supporting angles here say to Play Against - An underdog (ORAL ROBERTS) - after 2 straight games making 50% of their shots or better against opponent after 2 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 37% or less. (53-16 since 1997) and Play On - Any team (MEMPHIS) - excellent defensive team (<=40%) against an average defensive team (42.5-45%), average ball handling team (14.5-17.5 TO's) against a poor pressure defensive team (<=14.5 TO's). (144-89 since 1997.) (61.8%, +46.1 units. Rating = 2*)

Play on: Memphis

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FACTSMAN

ARKANSAS -4 OVER BUCKNELL

yeah they pulled off the miracle last year..BUT THIS IS BUCKNELL
PLAYING A ARKANSAS TEAM WITH JUST SUPPERIOR ATHLETES
THE KEY HERE IS THIS ISNT A BUCKNELL TEAM THAT WILL SNEAK UP ON U...................THEY ARE NOW KNOWN AND WILL HAVE TO BEAT A SEC TEAM TO ADVANCE THE SMALL 4 POINT NUMBER IS A INSULT TO THE ARKANSAS PROGRAM

THE BUBBLE POPS FOR BUCKNELL AS THE BETTER TEAM WINS THE GAME

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Dr. Bob - FRIDAY

3 Star Selection
***Ohio State (-10) over Davidson

Friday - Rotation 826
Ohio State didn't play their best in the Big 10 Conference Tournament, as they were 0-3 ATS in their 3 tourney games and lost in the finals to Iowa. However, that loss should serve to refocus the Buckeyes, who qualify in a 76-29-1 ATS round 1 situation and a 13-0-1 ATS round 1 bounce-back situation. Also, teams that are coming off 3 or more consecutive pointspread losses are 26-10 ATS in NCAA Tournament games against teams that are coming off a straight up win and spread win (or push). Ohio State's recent spread losing streak has given us line value as my ratings favor Ohio State by 11.5 points, which is where this line opened. Davidson played two teams close to Ohio State's level and lost by 28 points at Duke and 24 points at North Carolina and the Wildcats would lose this game by 18 points if they played at the same level against Ohio State as they did in those two games. Davidson lives by the 3-point shot, as they attempt 24 long range shots per game and make 37.6% of them. However, Ohio State has a very good perimeter defense (only 30.7% 3-pointers allowed) and the Buckeyes should contain the Wildcats' sharp- shooters. I'll take Ohio State in a 3-Star Best Bet at -10 points or less and for 2-Stars at -10.5 or -11 points (an opinion at -11.5 or -12).

2 Star Selection

**George Mason (+4.5) over Michigan State

Friday - Rotation 827
George Mason will be missing pointguard Tony Skinn, who has been suspended for this game for throwing a below the belt punch in the Patriots' Conference Tournament loss. That loss actually sets up George Mason in a very strong 30-4 ATS round 1 bounce-back situation and the loss of Skinn may be overstated a bit. Skinn is the Patriots' second leading scorer and a good on the ball defender, but his offensive numbers are easily replaced given his scoring efficiency is lower than the team average and backup pointguard Jordon Carter averages considerably more steals per minute than Skinn does. I can't find any reason why George Mason will be worse at all without Skinn and my ratings favor Michigan State by just 3.5 points. I will respect the oddsmakers a bit for the adjustment they made for Skinn's absence, but I will take George Mason in a 2-Star Best Bet at +4 points or more and for 3-Stars at +5 points or more (an opinion at +3.5 or +3 points).

3 Star Selection
***Arkansas (-4.5) over Bucknell

Friday - Rotation 848
Bucknell is the best small conference team in this tournament, but the Bison are not worthy of a #9 seed (a #12 seed would be more appropriate). Arkansas will certainly not overlook Bucknell given the Bison's upset win over Kansas in last year's first round, and the Razorbacks apply to a 76-29-1 ATS round 1 bounce-back situation. Arkansas hasn't played poorly in consecutive games in a couple of months and they are 7-0 ATS in games following a loss or a spread loss recently. My ratings favor the Razorbacks by 4.8 points and I'll take Arkansas in a 3-Star Best Bet at -5 points or less and for 2-Stars at -5.5 points. Arkansas would be an opinion at -6 (54% chance of covering).

Opinions/Possible Best Bets

Georgetown (-3.5) vs. Northern Iowa

My ratings favor Georgetown by 3.2 points in this game, but there is really no value in taking Northern Iowa unless the line goes to +4.5 points. Georgetown would qualify in a very good 80-29-2 ATS situation if the became a favorite of less than 3 points, so I'd take Georgetown in a 2-Star Best Bet at -2.5 points (3-Stars at -2 or less) .

North Carolina (-11.5) vs Murray State

My ratings favor North Carolina by 12 points in this game and I have equally strong situations applying to both sides in this game. there is no value on either side in this game at a line of 11.5 points, but I will lean with North Carolina at -11 or less and with Murray State at +13 points or more.

Arizona (pick) over Wisconsin

Arizona gets leading scorer Hassan Adams back after serving a 2 game suspension and the Wildcats are fully equipped to win this game against a slumping Badgers' team that hasn't been as good since losing solid role players Greg Stiemsma and Marcus Landry. Using Arizona's ratings with Adams and with defensive star Chris Rodgers (he missed 8 games in the middle of the Pac-10 season after getting dismissed from the team, but has since returned), my ratings favor the Wildcats by 3 points in this game. However, Wisconsin is due to play better than expected, as teams that enter the NCAA Tournament on a 4 game or more pointspread losing streak and a loss in their first conference tournament game are 9-1 ATS in round 1. That angle is not significant enough for me to play Wisconsin, but it is enough to get me to pass on Arizona. I will consider Arizona an opinion at -1 or better.

Villanova (-19.5) vs Monmouth

My ratings favor Villanova by 19 points after factoring in their advantage of playing this game in their home city. I will lean with Villanova at -18 or less and I'll lean with Monmouth at +20 or more.

Kentucky (-2) vs Alabama Birmingham

UAB is 28-14 ATS as an underdog under coach Mike Anderson, including 9-3 ATS in post-season play, and the Blazers also apply to a very good 80-29-2 ATS round 1 situation. However, UAB isn't as good since losing Demario Eddins (from January 11th on) and Kentucky is improved since Randolph Morris has healthy enough to play (from January 10th on). My ratings, using just those games for each team, favor Kentucky by 4 points. The line value favoring Kentucky is just as significant as the situation favoring UAB and I have no opinion on this game at the current number. I will lean with Kentucky at pick or dog and I will lean with UAB at +2.5 points or more.

Albany (+22) over Connecticut

Connecticut is obviously capable of blowing any mediocre team out, but my ratings only favor the Huskies by 18.5 points in this game. I'll lean with Albany at +20 points or more.

Pittsburgh (-6.5) vs Kent State

My ratings favor Pittsburgh by 7 points and I have situations favoring both sides in this game. I will lean with Pittsburgh at - 6 points or less and I'll lean with Kent State at +8 points or more.

Kansas (-6.5) vs Bradley

Kansas applies to a very negative 4-24 ATS round 1 letdown situation that is based on their Big 12 conference tournament championship. Unfortunately, my ratings favor Kansas by 9.2 points and the negative line value balances out the strength of that situation and a line of 6.5 points is actually the break-even point on this game. I'd lean with Kansas at -5.5 and I would lean with Bradley at +7.5 points or more (I would have taken Bradley in a 2-Star Best Bet at +8.5 points or more), but this game is not a profitable venture on either side if the line is from 6 to 7 points.

Northwestern State (+7) over Iowa

Iowa applies to a very negative 4-24 ATS game 1 situation that based on their successful run through the Big 10 Tournament, but my ratings favor the Hawkeyes by 8 points and the negative line value takes away much of the value of the angle. Northwestern State is certainly capable of competing in this game, as the experienced (5 returning starters) Demons won at Oklahoma State and lost by just 2 points at Wichita State back in December. I will lean with lean with Northwestern State at +6.5 points or more and I will play Northwestern State in a 2-Star Best Bet at +7.5 points or more (3- Stars at +8.5 or more).

West Virginia (-4) over Southern Illinois

West Virginia applies to a 24-2 ATS round 1 bounce-back situation and a 44-14-1 ATS round 1 situation, but I am forced to pass on the Mountaineers as a Best Bet because the line is too high. West Virginia plays to the level of their competition more than any team in the nation and the regression equation predicting their level of play based on their opponent's rating suggests that they'll play better than their average in this game. However, Southern Illinois is an underrated team that just beat up on Northern Iowa and Bradley in winning the highly competitive Missouri Valley Tournament. I make a fair line of West Virginia by 2.5 points, but the strong situation still gives the Mounties a slightly profitable 53% chance of covering at -4 points. I'll lean with West Virginia at -4 or -3.5 (55% chance to cover) and I'll make West Virginia a 2-Star Best Bet at -3 points and a 3-Star at -2 points or less.

Oral Roberts (+12.5) over Memphis

Oral Roberts is the best #16 seed that I can remember and the Golden Eagles are even better than their season rating. Oral Roberts was missing one of more of their key players in 19 game stretch from December 11 through February 16th and they were 2.3 points better in the 12 games (vs Division 1 teams) that they played with their full cast of players. Using only Oral Roberts' games with their full team yields a fair line of Memphis by just 10 points, but their rating was a bit more than a point worse in 5 of those games played against good teams, so I'll call for a fair line of 11 points, which makes Oral Roberts a profitable 55% play at +12.5 points. I'll lean with Oral Roberts at +12 points or more.

NC State (-1.5) over California

NC State has a defensive force in the paint (Cedric Simmons averages 2.6 blocks per game) to deal with Leon Powe and the Wolfpack should be able to connect on plenty of 3 point shots (they average 25 attempts at 38% success) against a Cal defense that is just average defending the 3-point arc (35.1% allowed). NC State comes into this tournament on a 4 game slide in which they were also 0-4 ATS, but teams that are on a 4 games or more spread losing streak and lost straight up in their first conference tournament games are 9-1 ATS in their first NCAA Tournament game, so I expect the Wolfpack to bounce- back with a good effort here. NC State also applies to a solid 28-7 ATS round 1 situation involving the 8-9 and 7-10 match-ups. My ratings favor NC State by 2 points, but the situation isn't quite strong enough to make NC State a Best Bet unless they are -1 or better. I'll take NC State in a Best Bet at -1 or better and I'll lean with the Wolfpack at -1.5 (55% chance to cover) and -2 (53%).

Texas (-14.5) vs Penn

My ratings favor Texas by 15 points, so there is no value in playing either side of this game. I'd lean with Texas at -14 points or less and I'd lean with Penn at +16 points or more.

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Big Al.....
.he has a total of 10 plays, these 3 + 7 more....look at the bottom of the write up's

Friday
At 12:25 pm, on Friday, our selection is on Northwestern State over Iowa, as we will fade Iowa off its upset win over Ohio State to win the Big 10 Tournament. But favorites of -5 points or more off an upset win to win a conference tournament, are a terrible 1-9 ATS vs. a foe off a win. Also, going into Thursday's action, teams seeded 2 through 4 are 0-19 ATS in the first round of the tournament when priced from -4 to -15 points, and matched up against a foe off a win. Take Northwestern State.

At 9:30 pm, on Friday, our selection is on the Bradley Braves, as we will fade Kansas off its win (as a #2 seed) in the Big 12 Tournament Championship. And, since 1992, favorites priced from -4.5 to -14 points are a terrible 3-17 ATS in the first round of the NCAA Tourney, if they won their Conference Championship, but were not a #1 seed in that Conference tournament. And if our "play-against" team is a No. 4 seed in the NCAA Tourney, then our 3-17 stat becomes a perfect 0-8 ATS. Take the points with Bradley.

At 2:45 pm, our selection is on the West Virginia Mountaineers, who fall into a 30-4 ATS system of mine that goes against certain teams off a win as an underdog in their previous game, if they're matched up against a foe that's not off back to back SU/ATS wins. There are two other elements in this system which make it pop, but those will remain for my eyes only. Mike Gansey is reportedly 100% healthy after suffering abdominal cramps and an abdominal strain last week, and I look for him and 6-11 Kevin Pittsnogle to lead the Mountaineers to an easy win. Pittsnogle, because of his height, will be difficult for the smaller Salukis to match up with on the perimeter, and WVU also has an edge in experience since the Salukis have just one senior, and count six freshmen or sophomores in their 9-man rotation. The Mountaineers have already beaten the likes of UCLA (a #2 seed) and Villanova (a #1 seed) on the road this year, and saw some great defensive teams in the Big East like Pitt and Georgetown (WVU was 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS vs. those two teams). Southern Illinois does play good defense, but WVU will be prepared. Lay the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

4* OSU, PITT
3* UCONN, TEXAS
OP= G MASON, NC, CINN,