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Sacramento Kings
-2.0 (-110) / 5 units
best bet
DR BOB
NC
Ohio St
Iowa
Arizona
Kentucky
Idaho
Vir
Buzz Sports
Rutgers +22 4*
Nba
Memphis Under 194 5*
Lakers Under 206 4*
Larry Ness' Las Vegas Insider
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Cavs
Marc Lawrence
33-1 System play
SA SPURS
Big Al
Spurs
Wayne Root
chairman
Rutgers,
BEN BURNS
NBA
Under the Pistons
Over Kings
Raptors
NHL
Florida
NCCA Football
Over Lousiville
Sebastian Comp
Portland
Power Sweep
College
4* BYU
3* Mich. Texas Tech
2* SDST Ari. St. Ohio St.
Earlybird play: Purdue
NFL
4* KC
3* Car
2* Den Sea
Totals
3* KC/Buf over, Den/Oak over, Bal/Jax under
2* SF/Chi under, GB/Atl over
CKO Vol. 44 November 10-14, 2005 No. 11
11 *IOWA STATE over Colorado
Late Score Forecast:
*IOWA STATE 27 - Colorado 17
Iowa State a changed team now that RB Stevie Hicks (271 YR last two games;
1062 YR LY as a soph) back from early injury to power the previously
somnambulant Cyclone ground game. And scouts in Ames report ISU extremely
fired up for several reasons. Cyclones need to win to stay alive for Big XII
North championship, which they shared with Colorado TY, only to lose a spot
the in Big XII title game because of their 19-14 loss in Boulder when ISU
kickers missed two chip-shot FGs. A victory also gets 5-3 Cyclones closer to
a bowl, and this is the last home game for their seniors. ISU 8-1 last 9 as
an underdog, with the only non-cover a 27-20 OT loss TY at Nebraska when
Cyclones were getting 3.5. With Hicks balancing the offense, speedy QB Meyer
has 7 TDP the last 2 games, 5 of them to 6-5 WR Blythe, who is now his former
elusive self after off-season ACL surgery. Even if they lose this one, CU
knows it can still clinch North in final home game vs. Nebraska.
10 GEORGIA TECH over *Virginia
Late Score Forecast:
GEORGIA TECH 27 - *Virginia 20
Georgia Tech has proven the theory that "defense travels" recently. The
Engineers have turned in just one bad outing in their last 7 road games,
covering 6 of those (including trips to Auburn & Georgia) while allowing just
13 ppg in those covers. The only bad result in the string came at Blacksburg
against powerful Virginia Tech earlier this season. GT's defense is ranked
14th against the run and 10th in pass efficiency, and they have a knack for
creating takeaways, as the Engineers rank 5th in the country in turnover
margin. Tech RB P.J. Daniels has perked up lately, turning in 100-yard games
and running for 5.4 ypc in the last two games. Tech QB Reggie Ball has
generated 229 ypg in total offense this season and, after a midseason slump,
PK Travis Bell has made 4 of his last 5 FGs (24 of 32 career). He's never
missed an extra point. GT also has an excellent punting game (ranked 15th).
10 *MISSISSIPPI over Arkansas
Late Score Forecast:
*MISSISSIPPI 23 - Arkansas 10
Oxford insiders say Ole Miss remains upbeat despite its losing record, as
Rebels reportedly had crisp, enthusiastic practices for fiery HC Ed Oregeron
during last week's bye. Arkansas a troubled side right now. Hogs have only
2 SU wins this season, at home over Div. I-AA Missouri State & Sun Belt rep
Louisiana-Monroe. Longtime mentor Houston Nutt feeling some heat in
Fayetteville, and he's made a switch at QB to true frosh Casey Dick, who was
running scout team until a couple weeks ago. Dick struggled to move chains
in last week's home loss to South Carolina, and he won't have much success
against a swarming Ole Miss stop unit (only 3.5 ypc) that matches up well vs.
ground-oriented Arkansas attack (only 15 ppg last 4 in SEC). Big experience
edge to Rebel QBs sr. Michael Spurlock & jr. Ethan Flatt. And speedy RS
frosh RB Mico McSwain will provide plenty of ground support against yielding
Hog defense (4.9 ypc).
10 CENTRAL FLORIDA over *UAB
Late Score Forecast:
CENTRAL FLORIDA 28 - *UAB 26
Savvy C-USA scouts still believe the nation's most improved team is 6-3 UCF
(0-11 LY!) and isn't getting sufficient respect from the oddsmakers,
considerng the well-coached, rejuvenated Bulls have won 5 of their last 6
games and are currently tied for 1st place in the East Division.
Finely-tuned, well-balanced UCF attack (33 ppg last 5)-featuring productive
sr. QB Moffett (61%, 16 TDP, 5 ints.), tackle-breaking RB K. Smith (743 YR)
& rangy WRs Marshall & M. Walker (combined 105 grabs & 15 TDs)-will continue
to excel vs. the unreliable UAB defense that still gives up too many big
plays in crucial times. And while Blazers strong-armed QB Hackney will move
ball, we don't see him exploding vs. a tightening Bull 2ndary that's been
badly burned only once since early September. And must minimize any
meaningful home-field advantage for UAB at Legion Field (72,000 capacity),
where Blazers drew just 31,363 vs. Southern Miss on Oct. 21st. For technical
support, Brown's team just 6-13 as chalk since 2002, and competitive road
dogs (13.5-pts. or fewer) have covered nearly 60% TY.
10 *CHICAGO over San Francisco
Late Score Forecast:
*CHICAGO 26 - San Francisco 3
(Sunday, November 13)
Rebuilding San Francisco has struggled greatly when away from home TY, losing
42-3 at Philly, managing zero offensive TDs vs. Arizona in Mexico City, and
losing 52-17 at Washington. With physically-talented, but young and erratic
QB Cody Pickett making his first career start on the road, it's tough to
imagine 49ers turning around their fortunes vs. a voracious Chicago defense
(10 ppg at home) that has been built by Lovie Smith to thrive on opponents'
mistakes, as his units did when Smith was def. coord. at St. Louis. Pickett
generated only 9 FDs and 138 yards of offense last week in his debut at home
vs. the Giants. And CKO scouts report this Chicago team is chemistry-rich
and generating the same inner enthusiasm as the 2001 group, which went 13-3.
Bears have won & covered 4 straight, and they're 6-2 vs. the spread overall.
TOTALS: UNDER (33) in Baltimore-Jacksonville game-Ravens rugged on defense
and the lowest-scoring team in league...UNDER (33) in Washington-Tampa Bay
game-Total is low, but defenses strong and offenses inconsistent.
HONORABLE MENTION: PITTSBURGH (-12.5) vs. Connecticut-This is a must-win game
for Panthers (4-0 last 4 as home favorite) if Pitt wants to have a chance at
a bowl...PURDUE (-22.5) vs. Illinois-Boilermakers back on track with a win;
Illinois still on track as one of the worst defensive teams in a major
conference...EAST CAROLINA (+10.5) at Tulsa-East Carolina has the offensive
weapons, style & knack of hanging around vs. teams in its class...LA.-MONROE
(+10) at Middle Tennessee State-Indians have the offense (27 or more 5 of
last 6 games) to battle few-big-plays Middle all the way...PHILADELPHIA
(-2.5) vs. Dallas-Eagles can't afford to lose another divisional game; most
players delighted to see Westbrook inked and T.O. banned (at least for now).
Pointwise NCAA
________________________________________
1 Minn, BYU 2 Ia St 3 Aub 4 Lvl, Mo 5 Ia, TCU
Pointwise - NFL
________________________________________
2-NYG 3-GB 4-Phil, Cle 5-Oak
Red Sheet NCAA
________________________________________
89-Pitt, Okla 88-Ia St, Mich, Minn 87-BYU, Md, Pur, Mem
Red Sheet NFL
________________________________________
88-NYG 87-Buff, StL, Phil
marc lawrence
5 BEST BET
OHIO STATE over Northwestern by 27
After exploding for 49 points at Michigan State, Northwestern
is struggling to put points on the board. The tough defenses
of Iowa and Michigan were able to solve the complexities of
Randy Walker's offense and held the explosive Wildcats in
check. Here's a flash! Ohio State has a pretty tough defense,
too! Northwestern has never had much luck in the Horseshoe.
The Purple Cats have scored a total of 65 points in their last
NINE games here. When you have one of the worst defenses
in the country, your offense better be clicking on all cylinders
because 7 PPG doesn't cut it. With nasty revenge, and our
Awesome Angle of the Week (see page 2) on OSU's side,
we'll stand by our red-hot Buckeyes who are 18-3 ATS at home
in SU revenge victories, including 13-1 ATS when the foe is
off a win. Buckeyes in a roast.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
3 BEST BET
WYOMING over Byu by 6
Byu has had more trouble with the Cowboys than the Indians
did. The Mormons have one cover in the last nine meeting
and none in the last four on this field. For some inexplicable
reason Wyoming has dropped each of its last four games,
both SU & ATS. Conversely, BYU has scored 117 points in its
last two games, each wins and covers. For it all we catch the
Cowboys getting points in their home finale (they would
have been touchdown favorites the first week of the season
in this contest). We'll gladly oblige as Wyoming needs this
like blood in order to stay bowl-eligible.
Western Michigan surprised us with its relatively easy win against
Eastern Michigan in Detroit last week. The Broncos quieted the
Emu offense while their own young QB continued his stellar play.
Central, meanwhile, was in an impossible scheduling spot. The
Chippewas had just won their biggest game in a decade and
were facing a Northern Illinois team off its most humiliating loss
in years. It'll be interesting to see how this one pans out.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
4 BEST BET
Michigan State over MINNESOTA by 10
It was obvious, to even the most casual observer, that the
Gophers didn't have any heads under their helmets in the
first half at Indiana. After falling behind 14-7, the Gophs
put up 35 second-half points with its relentless running
game to bury the Hoosiers in a sea of first downs and
touchdowns. Michigan State's defense isn't any better than
Indiana's and the Spartans could get run over just as badly.
Still, Michigan State is a winning team and Minny doesn't
beat winning teams at this time of the year. Would you
believe 14 straight ATS losses after game seven? Love the
fact that MSU stands 26-5 ATS as dogs in games they score
although Rice doesn't possess anywhere near the firepower of
Navy, the Owls are capable of winning this. Remember the
Buffalo dilemma? We couldn't recommend a favorite that has
no wins. The Owls have lost 14 in a row. They are also a 'Puttin'
On The Stats' play-against as chalk. We're there.
Steam Sheet
________________________________________
STAT STEAMER
Computer whiz, Dan Tesinferno's #1 Play
3* ARKANSAS over Mississippi by 10
Here's a game that has one team (Arkansas) that runs for
252 yards per game while the other (Ole Miss) runs for just
95. Since Arkansas has outrushed every opponent on its
schedule except Auburn and Southern Cal, and Mississippi
has gained more ground yards than only one lined opponent
(Kentucky) this season, I'm going to make the assumption
that the Hogs will have more rushing yards at the end of the
game than Mississippi does. Now that the assumption is made,
I can quote that Mississippi is a perfect 0-20 against the spread
in conference home games when not an underdog of +3 or
more and when the opponent wins the ground game. The
Pigs can do it. Arkansas outran Alabama by 109 yards at
Alabama and Georgia by 164 at Georgia covering both games
easily. Arkansas wins one for its lame duck coach.
SOMETIMES YOU FEEL LIKE A NUTT 24-14!
A Salvo from Nicky "Boom Boom" Cannon
3* HAWAII over Utah St by 26
What a tough loss for Utah State last week. The Aggies pushed
Louisiana Tech all over the field and came up short in one of
the phoniest final scores of the season (see page 2). Now,
deflated and demoralized, they travel to the Pineapple Patch to
take on an enraged Rainbow Warrior who returns home after
back-to-back losses. For the record, Utah State is 3-27 SU in
its last 30 road games, including 1-10 ATS against opponents
who were off a loss and 2-11 ATS to sub .500 opposition.
Hawaii, meanwhile is 26-5 to the money in its last 31 SU wins
off a double digit loss. Numbers aside, we've seen this happen
too many times before to ignore it. A team plays their asses off
at home, gets beat by unfortunate circumstances, then goes
on the road against a high-scoring team and gets thumped. As
the Canadian said to the Honolulu hotel clerk.
ALOHA, EH 46-20!
Tom Scott's Number One Play
DAN TESINFERNO'S
NUTZ NOVEMBER
SEE THAT AD OVER THERE ☞
TOP GAME CLUB MEMBERS - LISTEN UP!
Dan's Football Game of the Year is NOT included in your
service. However, you can get this special games at a the Top
Game Club rate of $50 Pay-After-You-Win. You will receive
both halves of the November Steamroller parlay - no charge.
NOTE: Tom Scott's Big Ten Game of the Year is included
in your service and will be on the Saturday tape.
4* CLEMSON over Florida St by 9
The Smoker broke its losing streak last week by taking a
competent home underdog against a team off a bitter home
loss. We're going to do the same thing here. Florida State had
several chances to overtake NC State in the fourth quarter
last Saturday but couldn't get it done. Bobby Bowden still
isn't settled on a quarterback, and a roster of healthy starters
is declining geometrically. Clemson may be the best 5-4 team
in the country. A grand total of 14 points is all that is keeping
the Tigers from being 9-0. With a significant edge at QB, an
edge in motivation stemming from revenge for last year's 41-
22 loss to the Seminoles, the incentive to play your best in
your last home game, and an injury-decimated opponent, we'll
take our chances with Tiger Paw in this one.
IPTAY 23-14!
Blowout special
3* TEXAS over Kansas by 45
Yeah, I know. I'm really going out on a limb with this pick, a
truly BIG engine. Nevertheless, the pick has merit. If you could
have seen the Kansas kids after that Nebraska game and
watched the celebration that is still going on as we speak, you
would know that the Jayhawks aren't ready for Texas. Off an
emotional win over Missouri and the streak-ending rout of the
Cornhuskers, Kansas will be out of gas in Austin. Yes, the
Jayhawk defense is good but, when the offense can't stay on
the field, even good defenses wear down. And the Texas
defense is better. Put that together with a 210-yard better
offense and the Longhorns roll on.
BOVINE BUTT-WHIPPIN' 52-7!
Upset special
3* MARYLAND over N Carolina by 9
Other than the game against Utah in which Carolina caused
five turnovers and won by 14 while getting beat in total yardage,
the Tarheels have two home wins this year, both by two
points. That win over Boston College last week was a huge
game for UNC, a game the Heels had been thinking about
since losing to BC in the Continental Tire Bowl by 13 in their
home state. North Carolina has revenge here too, but Maryland
has the emotional edge. The Turtles had Florida State
beaten in Tallahassee before a pair of untimely turnovers did
them in and they've had two weeks to stew about it. Maryland
is good enough and angry enough to win this.
CHOCOLATE COVERED CARAMEL PECANS 31-22!
MOUNTAIN JACK
3* SEATTLE over St Louis by 16
I had Seattle the first time against the Rams this season and
I'm taking the Seahawks again. Other than the obvious
matchup problems the Rams have in this game, Seattle is on
fire right now, especially in the running game. The Hawks are
averaging 200 yards per game on the ground over the last
three weeks and don't appear to have a slow down scheduled
until February. Just for the record, Saint Louis is 11-39
against the spread on the road when it allows 100 or more
yards rushing and that includes a pathetic 2-15 money log
when the opponent is .600 or better. All during the off-season,
Seahawk players were reminded the Rams beat them three
times last season, one of which was a season-ending playoff
loss. This is the second payment on that debt.
SLEW 40-24!
cannon shot
3* CHICAGO over San Francisco by 23
I know it's unheard of to lay this many with the Bears and I also
know it's going to be an unpopular play. I've already read three
different newsletters who have the Forty Niners as a featured
selection. They might be right, but I fail to see the logic in the
pick. San Francisco has been beaten 42-3 and 52-17 in its
only two true road games this season. Those losses came at the
hands of the Philadelphia Eagles and the Washington Redskins.
In their only other trip away from the Gate, the Niners lost 31-
14 to the Arizona Cardinals. Combining the offensive and
defensive scoring averages of those three teams against
Chicago's, finds the Bears up more than a full touchdown in
net scoring. So tell me again, why is San Francisco going to
win?
YOGI, PADDINGTON AND SMOKEY 29-6!
Dan's steamer
3* CHICAGO over San Francisco by 23
I know it's unheard of to lay this many with the Bears and I also
know it's going to be an unpopular play. I've already read three
different newsletters who have the Forty Niners as a featured
selection. They might be right, but I fail to see the logic in the
pick. San Francisco has been beaten 42-3 and 52-17 in its
only two true road games this season. Those losses came at the
hands of the Philadelphia Eagles and the Washington Redskins.
In their only other trip away from the Gate, the Niners lost 31-
14 to the Arizona Cardinals. Combining the offensive and
defensive scoring averages of those three teams against
Chicago's, finds the Bears up more than a full touchdown in
net scoring. So tell me again, why is San Francisco going to
win?
YOGI, PADDINGTON AND SMOKEY 29-6!
GOLD SHEET:
***KEY RELEASES*
BUFFALO by 13 over Kansas City
N.Y. GIANTS by 21 over Minnesota
OVER THE TOTAL in the St. Louis-Seattle game
BUFFALO 27 - Kansas City 14—Buffalo HC Mike Mularkey toyed during
the Bills' off week about going back to J.P. Losman at QB, but vets reportedly
urging him to stick with Kelly Holcomb (2-2 SU), who started 2-0, then lost
challenging road games at Oakland & N.E. Bye week will allow defense to gather
itself. And tight-covering secondary should help front seven to focus largely on K.C.
ground game (check Priest Holmes' concussion). Bills 3-1 vs. spread as host.
NY GIANTS 31 - Minnesota 10—Brad Johnson (2 TDP vs. Lions) is
extremely intelligent, and a very nice guy. But he's on the down side of his career
with a team racked with internal controversy (don't ask about the garbage sifters),
a weakened OL, an underachieving defense, and leadership that knows it has
seven more games to go—at the most! Ascending Giants are +13 in TOs,
terrifically balanced on offense (29 ppg), and 5-0 at home (4-1 vs. spread). Vikes
1-8 vs. spread last 9 away.
OVER the total SEATTLE 33 - St. Louis 30—Injuries to WRs Bruce &
Holt (not to mention the absence of Mike Martz) might have turned out to be a
blessing is disguise for St. Louis (21 giveaways), which has been forced to
feature RB S. Jackson (97, 179 YR last two games). Mike Holmgren's gamble
on defensive youth TY seems to be working (Seahawks 7th in defense prior to bye
week!). But Marc Bulger & WRs closer to returning (check status).
*COLLEGE KEY RELEASES****
OKLAHOMA by 28 over Texas A&M
BYU by 16 over Wyoming
ARIZONA by 24 over Washington
OKLAHOMA 38 - Texas A&M 10—With A&M injury-thinned and in
freefall (losses by 28, 39 last two weeks), must go with rebounding Oklahoma,
especially with A-A RB A. Peterson (24 for 146 YR last game) back in action and
having an additional week of rest for improving ankle. Overlooked but speedy
Sooner defense has permitted only 16, 63 & 11 YR last three games to rank first
in nation prior to last week.
Byu 33 - WYOMING 17—It's been nearly as rough a few weeks for
Dick Cheney's alma mater as it's been for the V.P. himself, as Wyo's oncepromising
campaign has disintegrated in hail of TOs (-10 in last 4 losses).
Meanwhile, BYU starting to click, especially now that QB Beck comfy with o.c.
Anae's nicely-balanced version of spread (Cougs 218 ypg rush last 4).
ARIZONA 38 - Washington 14—While Ty Willingham searches
fruitlessly to find a pulse for moribund UW attack (not sure backup QB
DuRocher the answer), true frosh QB Tuitama (721 YP & 6 TDP last 3 games)
has proved to be the defibrillator that Mike Stoops' Arizona "O" badly needed.
Oft-torched Husky 2ndary an inviting target for Cats' homerun frosh WR
Thomas (30 yp catch last 2!).
GOLD SHEET
Key Releases
Oklahoma by 28 over Texas A&M
Byu by 16 over Wyoming
Arizona by 24 over Washington
PRO
Buffolo by 13 Over KC
NY Giants by 21 over Minn
Over total In St.LOuis/Seattle
TECH REPORT
Boise State
Kentucky
California
North Texas
Jets/Carolina over
Denver