Friday’s NCAA FB Selection
NEW MEXICO STATE +30½ over California
The Cal Golden Bears take their #13 ranking on the road on Friday, as they play the New Mexico State Aggies in Las Cruces. The Bears had to fight for a 35-20 home victory over Illinois last Saturday, while New Mexico State was losing their 3rd straight game, a 38-21 setback at rival New Mexico.
Cal was without the services of talented running back Marshawn Lynch last weekend against the Illini, forcing the Bears to turn to Justin Forsett and Marcus O'Keith. Both players responded with outstanding performances, especially Forsett who recorded career-highs with 187 rushing yards and two TDs. Joe Ayoob, making just his second career start under center, finishing with 121 yards passing and one TD, despite connecting on just 8-of-17 tosses, to push California to 3-0 mark on the season.
The 2005 campaign is headed in the opposite direction for the Aggies, who are still in search of their first win this year. Hal Mumme is the new head coach at New Mexico State and the team is certainly experiencing some growing pains, as they switch from a run-oriented offense to Mumme’s passing scheme. Joey Vincent who led a pair of second half scoring drives last week in Albuquerque in the loss to New Mexico, is the new starter for the Aggies this week. Vincent is a smaller, quicker player who was recruited as an option quarterback after rushing for more than 1,000 yards as a high school senior.
While Cal’s Jeff Tedford could probably name the score in this contest, there’s good reason to believe margin of victory will stay well under the number. Tedford has never been one to run up the score, and Cal simply does not have a history of covering spread this large. Searching the Sportsdatabase.com college football records, we find that the Bears are 0-3 ATS last year as a favorite of more than 24 points. In fact, they are 0-4 ATS since at least 1980 as a road favorite of 23+ points, and 0-4 ATS since at least 1980 as a favorite of anywhere of 26+ points.
Cal will be looking to get their front-line players off the field as soon as possible, instead of setting any scoring records. They start conference play with a home game against Arizona next Saturday, and will want to be as healthy as possible for that contest. They are very banged up as is. Defensive lineman Tosh Lupoi is expected to miss the game. Offensive linemen Aaron Merz and Andrew Cameron are both doubtful. Running back Marshawn Lynch and linebacker Greg Van Hoesen are questionable. They are also on their second starting QB of the season, as Nathan Longshore broke his leg in the first game and is lost for the year.
A couple of small PRO INFO SPORTS NCAA Football Power Systems also point to the Aggies covering this huge spread. From the second game of the season on, non-Saturday home underdogs of more than 2 points off a SU loss in which they scored 18+ points and allowed less than 45 points are 8-0 ATS since 1997, covering the spread by more than 2 TDs a game on average. New Mexico State was able to easily cover the 34½-point spread at Cal last year, which qualifies them as a play-ON team in another system that instructs: Play ON a non-Saturday underdog of more than 7 points seeking revenge for a SU loss and ATS win of more than 6 points in the previous matchup last season. While there have only been 8 such games since 1991, these big dogs have barked loudly, covering the spread by 17 points a game on average.
It is quite likely that Cal will score early and often and build up a big lead; however, the Aggies will keep passing until the bitter end, as they have done each week. Last week, it was good enough for a back-door cover at New Mexico, and could very well be the case here, as we like New Mexico to get the ATS win.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: CALIFORNIA 35 NEW MEXICO STATE 21