Buzz Word Sports presents...
VALENTINE'S DAY COMPLIMENTARY NBA:
Seattle @ Sacramento 10:05 PM EST
Seattle +9.5 over Sacramento (2.5 Units)
The Sacramento Kings look for their second consecutive blowout win when they host the struggling Seattle Sonics, who have now lost four consecutive games, have been held to less than 80 points in three of their last six contests, and seem to be waiting for the other shoe to drop with Gary Payton trade rumors running rampant...
Despite all the trials and tribulations the Sonics are enduring right now, however, we still see some value in backing the Sonics tonight against a Kings team that is struggling a bit offensively right now without the services of Chris Webber and Scot Pollard, and still have a questionable Bobby Jackson on the bench... Tuesday's victory aside, this is a Sacramento team that has struggled to cover the heavy number, as the Kings are just 1-7 ATS as a favorite of more than six points...
Contrary to Sacramento's struggle as a large favorite, the one time that Seattle has proven to be a solid play as of late is when they are receiving more than six points in a contest, as Seattle is 5-2 ATS as a dog of more than six, and have seen three of their last four losses decided by six points or less... the Sonics have also proven very capable of coming back from a disastrous offensive performance, as the team is a very strong 3-0 ATS (and 2-1 straight up) in their last three contests after being held to 80 points or less... and since the start of the 1998-99 season, the Sonics are a whopping 10-1 ATS as an underdog after scoring 80 points or less in their previous contest, including a very strong 4-1 ATS mark this season, with the only ATS loss coming by one point as a six-point dog...
Now, let's toss in Seattle's head-to-head success against the Kings and cook this thing to a boil... not only is Seattle 6-3 ATS in their last nine battles against the Kings, but they are 3-0 ATS in Sacramento after a straight up win and two losses by six points or less... the underdog in this series is 6-2 ATS, with the Sonics going a whopping 4-1 ATS in their last five as an underdog against the Kings... the Kings are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight home games against Western Conference competition, and are 0-4 ATS after a double-digit win...
Despite Seattle's litany of problems, they still have what it takes to keep the final margin of this game within double-digits against a Sacramento team that is a touch overrated right now... take the heavy points, as Seattle loses down the stretch, but keeps the final margin right around six...
FINAL PREDICTION: SACRAMENTO 97, SEATTLE 91
Atlanta @ Indiana 7:05 PM EST
Atlanta +10 over Indiana (2 Units)
The idea of taking the Hawks on the road never appeals to us too much, but the way they are scoring on offense right now makes us believe that this is just too many points to be handing Atlanta right now... as surprising as it may seem, the Hawks are finally starting to play up to their potential on the offensive side of the ball after struggling for the majority of the season... in fact, over their last eleven games, Glenn Robinson and company have been scoring at a 100.4 ppg clip, scoring at least 96 points in ten of those contests, while holding four of their last five opponents to less than 100 points...
The results of Atlanta's recent resurgence have been a perfect 3-0 ATS mark as an underdog of five points or more, with two straight up wins, and a loss by just one point in their last contest... in fact, in their last ten games, while the Hawks have gone just 5-5 SU overall, they have lost by more than five points just once, and have seen four of those losses come by a combined eleven points, just one point more than tonight's double-digit line against the Pacers... heading back to last season, Atlanta is a perfect 5-0 ATS after a straight up loss where they covered the spread, winning by an average of 9.5 points against the spread in those contests, including double-digit straight up wins against both the Kings and the Lakers this season...
The Pacers should be friendly hosts to the Hawks this time around, as Indiana has allowed at least 96 points in each of their last five home games, and are now 0-3 ATS in their last three home games as a favorite of seven points or more, failing to cover against the likes of Cleveland, Toronto, and the Clippers - three teams whose win/loss records this season rival that of the Hawks... at home against Eastern Conference teams with a losing record this season, the Pacers are just 1-3 ATS in their last four contests, a mark that displays a team that is slacking off a bit against lesser competition...
While we wouldn't recommend unloading on this game, we have a contest here where the value seems to lie with the Hawks and the points, as Atlanta is playing much better basketball than they were earlier in the season, while the Pacers appear in be in midseason cruise mode... After two consecutive double-digit victories, the Pacers have followed up with a 3-6 ATS mark over the past two seasons, including a horrid 1-5 ATS mark in their last six games this season... we look for that mark to drop to 1-6 ATS, as the Pacers pull out the win, but allow the Hawks to fall within the double-digit spread...
FINAL PREDICTION: INDIANA 100, ATLANTA 94
Chicago @ New Jersey 7:35 PM EST
New Jersey -11 over Chicago (1 Unit)
no analysis.
Plays available via subscription:
Detroit @ Milwaukee (4.5 Units)
Orlando @ Philadelphia (4 Units)
New York @ Phoenix (4 Units, w/2.5 Unit totals play)
San Antonio @ LA Lakers (4 Units, w/2 Unit totals play)
Dallas @ Memphis (3.5 Units, w/1.5 Unit totals play)
Golden State @ Toronto (3 Unit totals play)
THANKS FOR READING AND BEST OF LUCK!