Nebraska at Iowa State
Saturday, September 28, 3:30 EST
What's up in Lincoln? After getting blown out by Papa Joe at Penn State everyone's writing off the Cornhuskers. Will this be a down year for Nebraska?
It must be as the Sportsbooks have Nebraska as a pick or underdog versus Iowa State. C'mon, this is Nebraska versus Iowa State, a game that Nebraska normally lines up as a three or four touchdown favorite and wins by 30 or more points. In the last 10 years Nebraska has been favored by less than 24 points only once. Three times they were favored by 40 or more points.
Why so much respect for Iowa State? The Cyclones are rolling with a 4-1 SU and 4-0 ATS record. Their lone loss was in August versus Florida State in one of those Classic games, and this one was a classic. Florida State rolled out to a big lead and then had to hold on for a 38-31 win. In the game, Iowa State was driving down for the tying touchdown but was stopped short as time expired.
Iowa State QB sensation Seneca Wallace has put up some tremendous numbers. His offense is scoring 42.4 points per game and posting a total of 448 total offensive yards. Nebraska better get ready.
Trend players face a huge dilemma in this one. There are some killer trends favoring both teams. Nebraska doesn't score 14 or less points very often, but when they do watch out next week. The Cornhuskers are a perfect 7-0 ATS after not putting two touchdowns on the board. Another good one for Nebraska is their 18-3 ATS record after a game in which they allowed 8 or more passing yards per attempt.
On the Iowa State side, the Cyclones cover at a rate of 68% in home games versus conference opponents. They always play well after non-conference games covering 8 of the last 9. Put Iowa State on grass and watch them cash 73% of the time (covering 16 of 22).
Anyway, if you wager solely on trends you'll soon be in the unemployment line. I'll take a good solid system over a perfect trend anytime. If Iowa State stays at a pick or dog you might like to know about a little system that is to play on home dogs of seven or less points after a win of 21 or more points that wins 65% of the time.
Trends, systems, revenge, and emotion, you've got them all in this game. Iowa State has been Nebraska's whipping boy for a long time. Maybe this year the Cyclones will inflict the damage.