GREEN BAY/JACKSONVILLE SIDE & TOTAL

GREEN BAY/JACKSONVILLE SIDE & TOTAL

Green Bay vs. JACKSONVILLE UNDER 37

JACKSONVILLE –2½ over Green Bay

Two teams looking to put together consecutive preseason victories meet at Jacksonville’s ALLTELL Stadium Friday night, as Green Bay travels to face the Jaguars. The Packers are coming off a 19-14 home triumph over New Orleans last Saturday, while the Jags were 14-6 winners at home in their battle with in-state rival Tampa Bay last Friday.

Jack Del Rio's team comes off a dominant defensive effort against the Buccaneers, as they held Jon Gruden's club to 152 total yards and just seven first downs. Offensively, quarterback Byron Leftwich played to mixed reviews but backups David Garrard and Quinn Gray performed well. The Jags offense will take a hit, as RB Fred Taylor will miss this game with a sprained foot.

Green Bay finally gave its loyal fan base something to cheer about, as QB Brett Favre looked sharp against the Saints. Less convincing, however, was the performance of backup Tim Couch, who had his second straight poor outing in a Packers uniform. The defense limited the Saints to 42 rushing yards on 23 carries and will attempt to continue its staunch play. The Pack brought a dizzying array of blitzes against New Orleans. It's unusual for a team to blitz so often in the preseason. "They blitzed every snap," Saints coach Jim Haslett said. "Well, I guess that's what their trademark is going to be this year, so that's going to be what they want to work on," Haslett added. Indeed, Mike Sherman and defensive coordinator Bob Slowik have decided to blitz more than most teams in the exhibition season so they can work on the new schemes Slowik has put into the defense. That is not about to change here in Jacksonville.

Back to the Green Bay offense, the Packers are trying to balance the desire to give Brett Favre more than his usual amount of exhibition playing time with the need to sort through an unsettled backup competition. Favre is expected to play the first half and start the third quarter unless LT Chad Clifton doesn't play. Clifton has missed the last two days of practice due to bursitis in his left knee. Though the injury is not believed to be serious, there is a chance he will be held out of the game. If that’s the case, don’t expect Favre to play very long. The Packers don’t want to risk playing Favre too long without their No. 1 left tackle protecting his blind side. Either way, if Favre gets roughed up he'll be pulled quickly. With the aggressive Jaguars defense applying pressure, this could happen relatively quickly. That would likely mean the entrance of Tim Couch behind center. The coaching staff is watching him very closely after two poor performances, and his days in Green Bay could be numbered. In his two appearances, he has completed only 8 of 28 passes for 82 yards, and his longest completion has been only 17 yards. What has been especially troubling is that Couch has regularly missed open receivers on routine routes and has been slow to pick up the offense. His struggles have been just as evident in practices as they were during games. Craig Nall is in last place in a QB race that has seen Doug Pederson lock up a backup job because of Couch’s struggles. The Packers still want to give the newcomer Couch as much chance as possible to win a roster spot, though his sore arm again sidelined him this week and it a question whether he'll even be ready for this game. If he does play, it's questionable how much of the offense he would be prepared to handle following essentially a week away from practice. “Concern level is pretty high,” offensive coordinator Tom Rossley said. “We’re kind of stuck in the middle of trying to get him ready and keeping him healthy. He was pretty sore, I think, when we started (training camp). He hasn’t had too much time where it’s been live and fresh.”

Meanwhile, the Jags just closed what second-year coach Jack Del Rio called a "very productive" training camp. Del Rio added, "The thing I'm most proud of coming out of camp is I really believe that guys have bought in to the 'team-first' mentality and are really building some chemistry. That's a hard thing to do this time of year when you're fighting for your own selfish desire to be on a football team." The team feels good about what they’ve accomplished in the preseason, although they obviously still have a ways to go, especially on offense. On defense, they appear to be rock solid, and we look for them to play the Packers very tough here.

We expect a game similar to that in which Jacksonville played last week against the Bucs, although we do expect a little more scoring here. Still both teams should dominate, and we like the Jacksonville QB rotation advantage to be the difference in winning the game and covering the spread in the second half. Del Rio knows a win over a playoff team would a tremendous confidence boost for his young troops, while Green Bay’s coach Sherman has never put a lot of emphasis on preseason wins, as shown by his 4-8 SU record. In looking at some recent preseason trends, Friday home teams playing opponents off a home game were 5-1 ATS last year and are already 3-0 ATS this preseason, while Friday home teams off a home contest in their last game are 8-2 ATS over the past 10 occurrences. In exhibition games with a total between 35½-42 points, Jacksonville is 17-8 ATS. Three of those were in the last 3 years, and all 3 went UNDER, as have 4 of 5 games in which the Jags have been a home favorite of 3 points or less. Also, in the last 3 preseasons, Green Bay has seen all 4 of their games with a line between +3 and -3 go UNDER. This game should also fall UNDER the total as the defenses have their way, before the Jags break away from the Pack late.