Handicapping Baseball
By Scott Rickenbach
VegasInsider.com
Early season baseball action is a wonderful time of year. It’s a season of renewed hope for all the teams as every one starts the year with a fresh 0-0 slate. With this renewed hope can come some impatience both from teams and handicappers alike! Hence, this is what has prompted this article as we enter the last few days of March here in 2008.
The MLB season has already started for two teams with Boston and Oakland squaring off in Japan. However, the action really doesn’t get going until this coming week. Other than one more “stand-alone” game on Sunday night, it will be Monday and Tuesday that all the teams will finally be getting into the action. Now let’s get to those keys early in the season:
1) Avoid the unknown: If there are some uncertainties surrounding a potential play on the board than leave it off of your card. It is always better to be safe than sorry. This is especially true early in the season when uncertainties abound.
2) Be a Weather Watcher: April weather is almost always the most unpredictable month of weather in the baseball season. From snow flurries to blustery winds to frigid temperatures it can be tricky for some teams, pitchers, and position players to get on track early in the season. This is very significant because totals players (myself included) must keep very close tabs on the weather forecasts or we can end up losing a play to Mother Nature moreso than losing it because of our overall handicapping skills.
3) Be wary of Spring Training Stats: The statistics accumulated in spring training have to be some of the most useless numbers in handicapping. The problem with spring training statistics is that they are accumulated at a time when many minor league ballplayers are on the field. Additionally, many of the veteran ballplayers may be working on a new pitch, or trying to work out the kinks in their swing or tweaking something in their batting stance, etc. There are too many unknowns in spring training and, although the statistics can be useful in some cases, one should not put too much reliance on them.
4) Injuries and their Impact: Be wary of pitchers and position players who are coming off of injuries. If a player was rehabbing an injury coming into this season than you certainly must be careful when judging them based on historical statistics. Often a player will bounce back strong from a prior injury but, other times, they may struggle for a short stretch or even a lengthy period of time. This is most often notable in the cases of pitchers since a team’s success is so strongly correlated with their starting pitching and their bullpen. If they have significant injury issues in their bullpen or a starting pitcher is dealing with an injury, make sure you have a good “read” on the situation before you make a decision. Even then, the best decision may be to simply stay away from the uncertainty. Remember, there are 6 full months in the regular MLB season and, as a result, there will be plenty of opportunities. Use only your strongest opportunities and you’ll come out further ahead in the long run.