Handicapping helper: Early-season baseball betting
By MATT FARGO
After more than five months off, the first pitch of the new baseball season is nearly here and bettors are getting ready. Preparation for the baseball season is already taking place by looking at injuries, depth charts, player transactions, statistics and many other sources to get ready for another long but enjoyable year. Early handicapping is important since this is where betting momentum is either built or lost and that can take its toll throughout the summer months. Hitting your stride early is huge.
Don't bet many games early
With 2,430 games being played during the season, there are plenty of betting opportunities that are going to occur, so there is no reason to let it all out early in the year. A lot of veteran baseball bettors don’t even play during the first few weeks of the season as they’d rather get a feel for the players and teams rather than throw money at a coin flip. However, there are opportunities early on that can be taken advantage of, but there is no reason to be playing four games every night, or even one game every night for that matter.
Stick with the underdogs
The best part about being a small-market team baseball fan is the fact that this time of year, that team is in the hunt. As time goes on, those teams start dropping off but for the most part of the beginning of the season, these teams are playing with a lot of energy and enthusiasm. Moneylines are mostly based on last season’s performances and plenty of value can be had on the teams that are not getting any respect early. There are plenty of bad numbers out there in April and a lot of those can be taken advantage of.
Don’t get caught up in the hype
You are going to hear a lot of stories coming from Florida and Arizona on how a certain young pitcher has dominated and made the big league rotation. Spring training can be good for evaluation but once these kids face quality hitting every time out, things can change. Avoid rookie starters early in the season until they get adjusted to their new surroundings. If the prices are good, fading them can be the way to go. Bad starts can cause a domino effect on these youngsters.
Watch the weather
Coming from a hot climate to cold and wet surroundings is a big transition for most big league players. Pitchers are most affected by this but hitters can be affected just as much. Keeping an eye on the weather during the first month is extremely important. Finesse pitchers are hurt more by cold and wet weather while power pitchers are able to have more success in those conditions. Hitters do not like those conditions at all, so power pitchers in bad weather environments can lead to some good under wins.
Play the streaks
One rule in baseball that applies every day is to never bet against a team during a winning streak and never bet on a team during a losing streak. This should not be strayed from during the first month. Teams are very streaky in April and trying to figure out when those streaks will end can be a disastrous way to get the season going. If you plan on betting on a team during the first month of the season, make sure it won its last game. Conversely, bet against a team only if it lost its last game.