Handicapping NFL Strength of Schedule
by T.O. Whenham
I think that, for a surprising number of people, the single most overlooked aspect of the quality of a team in the NFL is the strength of the schedule that they are facing. A relatively easy schedule can make an average team look good and a good team look exceptional. On the other hand, there are many cases where a schedule filled with difficult opponents and rough trips has led to a disappointing result for a team that had higher hopes. Need proof? The Bears were the top team in the NFC. Their opponents had a pitiful .445 record the past season, the worst of any team. They succeeded in part because they were good, but were aided by the schedule makers. The Chargers topped the AFC, and their schedule was only a little tougher at .457. In 2005, the Chargers opponents were much tougher - .559 - and the team won five fewer games.
In the last 10 seasons there have been 62 teams that have won four-plus games more in a season than they did in the previous year. Of those, 51 have had a schedule with opponents who combined to have a record below .500 in the previous season. Given that overwhelming connection (82 percent of significantly improved teams enjoyed a weak schedule), it seems unlikely that any single thing would be more of a contributing factor to the relative success of a team than their opponents.
The calculation of the NFL strength of schedule is a very simple thing. All you need to do is add together all of the wins of the 16 opponents on a team's schedule from the previous year, and then add together all of the losses. You are left with a single win-loss record, and dividing the number of wins by the sum of the wins and losses will give you the win percentage. Once you have it calculated (or you can always look for it on the Internet), you can use it both as a measure of the difficulties a team faces relative to other teams in its division, conference, or the league, or as a comparison between the schedule they face this year and what they faced last year.
There is one very important thing to remember about strength of schedule. Like all statistics it has its limitations. In this case, the biggest problem is that it deals with what the teams were like last year, and does nothing to account for how those teams have improved or gotten worse since last season. If a team added a quarterback or other significant player through free agency then they could be much better than their previous record would indicate, and vice versa if their roster was challenged by injuries, defections or retirements. Therein lies the challenge of the NFL strength of schedule, then - you can get in real trouble if you ignore it, but you can also get yourself in trouble if you rely on it too blindly. Nobody ever said that handicapping was easy.
Looking at the strength of schedule for 2007 brings up a number of interesting situations and possibilities. Here's a look at a few that have caught my eye:
1. Things could get really ugly for the Raiders. Last year they faced a .516 schedule, and they looked pretty awful, particularly offensively, against it. This year makes last year look like a cakewalk. Their .539 schedule is tied for the toughest in the league with Buffalo (another team that could be in trouble unless J.P. Losman suddenly discovers a new level of play). Oakland's quarterbacking situation has the potential to be a complete mess, and the rest of the skill positions on the offensive side of the ball aren't exactly dominant enough to overcome any challenges at pivot.
2. Jacksonville is another team that could have a rough road if they can't figure out which quarterback they are going to run with this year. The Jags have made it clear that they don't have a lot of faith in either of their starting options. One of the two had better step up given the .527 schedule that they face.
3. If New England finishes the season with 12 or more wins this year then they really will have accomplished something. They face a tough .535 schedule this season, which is the third hardest. On paper they are better than last year, but those improvements had better translate to reality, because they face a huge jump up from the .473 schedule against which they were 12-4 (10-6 ATS) last year. That is tied with division-mates Buffalo for the biggest increase of difficulty in the league.
4. If Arizona is ever going to improve and look like a real NFL team then this is the year to finally do it. They face the easiest schedule in the league at .461. That's a significant decrease in difficulty from the .500 of last year. San Francisco is another intriguing team that faces a potentially generous schedule - .469. If they can maintain and build upon the massive improvements they showed last year then it could playoff time in San Francisco for the first time in a while.
5. The Bears must have embarrassing pictures of someone in the league office, because they got a gift again this year despite winning their conference last year. They move up from .445 to .465, but they still have the second easiest schedule in the league. Even Rex Grossman can look good against that pack of losers.
6. Tampa Bay may be a longshot to make the playoffs, but they certainly shouldn't end up at 4-12 again. Last year they had the third toughest schedule at .539, and they looked bad. This year they face a much more hospitable .473, and they have a significantly better quarterback to do it with.
7. The Saints looked great last year against a difficult .539 schedule, so they could really be special this year if they maintain their intensity and offensive explosiveness - they only face a .484 this year.
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Handicapping the 2007 NFL Schedule
by Robert Ferringo
At the start of each season - before training camp, before preseason games, before fantasy drafts, and even before Sean Salisbury starts making completely obvious comments concerning the league and its teams (example: "Tom Brady just flat out gets it done." or "With Urlacher and that defense the Bears are tough to score against.") - I have a sort of betting ritual in regards to the National Football League schedule. While I do my preseason research, in which I backtrack through the injuries and free agent injections of each NFL team, I make a list of teams that I think will be overvalued and a list of teams that I think will be undervalued throughout the year. Next, I go through the official NFL schedule and write down games in which I expect there to be either a major upset or at least a solid cover of a huge line. This is how I predicted that the Texans would beat the Colts last year. It's just a first-impression, gut-reaction to situations that I anticipate as profitable spots.
Is this the list of my games for this year? No. Sorry. Finding potentially juicy gambling situations is my first goal when I look at the NFL slate. However, the second thing that I do is try to pinpoint which contests will see the greatest level of attention from the mainstream media and general betting public (and thus see the most action). And I'd be more than happy to share that info with you. Believe me, while I was combing through the 2007 NFL schedule trolling for ripe gambling opportunities I realized that the people who concocted this gridiron agenda did an incredible job. There are a slew of high profile games that will entice square and sharp bettor alike to risk life and limb on a game of violence and chance.
Below is a look at the top games for each week of the 2007 NFL regular season from the perspective of a fan and a handicapper. Again, this isn't a listing of the top games to bet on over the course of the 2007 NFL season, but it is certainly a primer for the games that will get the blood flowing in the stands, at the bars, on the couches, and at the windows this year:
Week 1: Chicago at San Diego (4 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 9)
The defending NFC champ and the defending regular season champ square off on the Left Coast. The Chargers wideouts shouldn't put the fear into Chicago's secondary, and you never know what you'll get from Rex, so I would look for a low-scoring slugfest.
Week 2: San Diego at New England (8 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 16)
Yeah, so after getting Chicago at home in what should be an exceptionally physical game, the Chargers have to head east to take on the team that ended their season so unceremoniously last year. I wonder if San Diego is going to rue talking smack about the victorious Pats last January?
Week 3: Jacksonville at Denver (4 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 23)
Two of the hardest hitting teams will tussle in the Mile High atmosphere. Defenses should dominate here and whoever can get the least shaky play out of their quarterback should earn a statement win.
Honorable Mention: San Francisco at Pittsburgh
Week 4: Pittsburgh at Arizona (4 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 30)
Former Pittsburgh offensive coordinator and new Arizona head coach Ken Wisenhutt and spurned coach Russ Grimm will host their former team in the desert. These two coaches know the Steelers inside and out, so if the Cards are getting dog numbers here you should be prepared to pounce.
HM: New England at Cincinnati, St. Louis at Dallas, Denver at Indianapolis
Week 5: Carolina at New Orleans (1 p.m., Monday, Oct. 1)
The NFC South is going to come down to these two organizations, and whichever team can claim victory here will be in the driver's seat. The Saints have a tremendous advantage in that they'll be coming off a bye week. Whereas this will be Carolina's third straight divisional tilt.
Week 6: New England at Dallas (4 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 14)
The Cowboys get up for big games, and if the Patriots are somehow still unbeaten after their trip to Cincinnati the week before I would expect a bit of a letdown. Oh, yeah, and there's the little Moss vs. T.O. sideshow that will dominate the week leading up to the game.
HM: New Orleans at Seattle
Week 7: Chicago at Philadelphia (4 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 21)
I suppose you can debate about whether or not these are the two best teams in the NFC, but there's no question that they are the two strongest. The Eagles have owned the Bears (5-0 since 1999) recently and if D-Nabb is still healthy I see no reason why they won't make it six in a row here.
Week 8: Pittsburgh at Cincinnati (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 28)
Even without Joey Porter on the Steelers sideline this one is still going to be intense, with cheap shots and smack talk flying around the field. The Steelers have won and covered in six straight against the Bengals at Heinz Field.
HM: Indianapolis at Carolina
Week 9: New England at Indianapolis (4 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 4)
This annual Love Fest has become a rite of passage for the NFL. Indianapolis hammered the Pats in Foxboro last year and ended New England's season with a wild comeback in the AFC Title Game. I smell payback.
HM: Dallas at Philadelphia, Baltimore at Pittsburgh
Week 10: Indianapolis at San Diego (8 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 11)
By now you should see why I don't like the Colts' odds to earn another AFC South crown. Their schedule is grueling, with this game marking the end of a Carolina-New England-San Diego trifecta. Ouch.
Week 11: Chicago at Seattle (8 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 11)
The Bears humiliated the Seahawks during the regular season and then scored a dramatic overtime win against them in the playoffs. Both of those scuffles were in Soldier Field. I think things could work out a bit differently once the 12th Man gets involved.
HM: San Diego at Jacksonville
Week 12: Baltimore at San Diego (4 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 25)
As with the Colts, you may notice a pattern here. The Chargers have an absolutely brutal schedule, and we're going to see if Norv and the boys are tough enough to handle it. This game is a rematch from an exceptional regular season meeting last year in Baltimore.
HM: Denver at St. Louis (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 25)
Week 12: Philadelphia at New England (8 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 25)
A possible Super Bowl preview? Well, at the very least it's a Super Bowl rematch from three seasons ago. Only this time it's the Pats who are going to battle with the selfish, malcontent wideout.
Week 13: San Francisco at Carolina (1 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 2)
If the 49ers are for real - as everyone is assuming that they are - then this will be an intriguing match-up. San Fran is a pathetic 2-13 in games played east of Chicago over the past five seasons. This contest will also be the fourth road game in five weeks for the Niners.
Week 14: St. Louis at Cincinnati (1 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 9)
Points, points, and more points. That's what we're going to get with this one. Weather should be a factor. And by that I mean that some wind and/or snow could be the only thing keeping this total under 70 points. This is usually the first weekend of fantasy football playoffs as well, so keep that in mind when you're drafting!
HM: Carolina at Jacksonville
Week 15: Philadelphia at Dallas (1 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 16)
If you don't know why this is going to be a big one you shouldn't be reading this article. In fact, if you don't know why this game is on the list I want you to get off this site and never, ever return.
HM: Arizona at New Orleans, Seattle at Carolina
Week 16: Denver at San Diego (Monday, Dec. 24)
Alas, we finally have a Monday Night Football game targeted. This is a can't miss for ABC, as these two should be slugging it out for the division crown - and possibly home field advantage - as Santa makes it down our chimney.
HM: Philadelphia at New Orleans, Dallas at Carolina
Week 17: St. Louis at Arizona (4 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 30)
Could it be? Could the Cardinals be playing meaningful football this deep into the season? I'm still a skeptic, but it's worth putting them on the list. After all, it's August. Everyone's a title contender right now.
HM: Dallas at Washington, New Orleans at Chicago, Pittsburgh at Baltimore
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