Handicapping Quality Starts
By Ed Meyer
A quality start is defined as one in which the starter went at least six innings and allowed three or fewer earned runs. Of course, a starter can lose the game even if he did pitch well. In this article we’ll examine some pitcher-based trends involving the quality start.
Since the start of the 2004 MLB season, there have been about 10,500 MLB games. There are two starters per game, which makes about 21,000 starts. Of these, about 10,000 or 47.8% have been quality starts. The overall record of pitchers that have a quality start is 6849-3188, which is a winning percentage of 68.2%.
It is no surprise that a team has a better chance of winning the game when their starter has a quality start. This information is interesting but virtually useless to handicappers. However, the information that can be useful involves the starter’s performance in his next start following a quality start.
Perhaps the most sensible place to begin is when a starter is off a quality start. The most profitable starter in the league when they are off a quality start is not, surprisingly, the currently injured Chris Carpenter of the St Louis Cardinals. The Cards are 53-19 when Carpenter starts and he had a quality start his last time out. This record has produced a net profit of 27.55 units.
The worst starter to support after a quality start has been Andy Pettitte of the Yankees, who is 36-41 off a quality start, costing his backers 19.55 units.
Delving deeper, let’s look at starters who are off a quality start in which their team lost. There are two trains of thought here. One is that the starter will be motivated to pitch even better, reasoning that he needs to if he wants to win. Second, the starter may be discouraged after pitching well and not getting a win and pitch poorly in his next outing. Not surprisingly, there is a wide range of results in this situation among individual starters.
Perhaps the most striking is that of emotional Venezuelan Carlos Zambrano of the Chicago Cubs. The Cubs are 12-2 with Zambrano when they lost his last start even though he had a quality outing. In his last four in this situation, the Cubs have won 5-1, 6-0, 3-2 and 3-0, with the last two coming this season. In the Cubs’ last loss in this situation, September 4th 2006, Zambrano left after one and a third with lower back problems. The other loss was by a 3-2 margin in May 2006. Certainly, it is reasonable to count on an honest effort from Zambrano when he is off a quality start in which they lost.
Playing around with the database at KillerSports.com reveals that Zambrano is a perfect 12-0 since the start of the 2004 MLB season when he is off a quality start in which the Cubs lost AND scored fewer than three runs. In their last seven in this situation, the Cubs have won by an average of an absolutely staggering 8.0 runs to 1.4 runs. The closest any team has gotten to the Cubs in this situation is 6-3. That is, they won each one of the seven by at least three runs. The most remarkable stat, of course, is that the Cubs have allowed a total of only 1.4 runs per game in this situation.
On the other end of the spectrum, we find Scott Olsen of the Florida Marlins. The Fish are 0-9 in his starts when he is off a quality start in which they lost, losing by an average margin of 6.8 to 3.9 runs. Either Olsen is pouting or pressing. Whatever the case, it hasn’t worked. Unless he changes his mindset, Florida will be a play-against team with Olsen when he is off a quality start in which the Marlins lost.
Quality starts can be an interesting and valuable handicapping stat. Dr. Meyer uses the quality start as just one of his many handicapping tools. It has been an unqualified success.
VegasInsider.com