Handicapping the MLB Home Run Derby
By Larry Ness
I was asked to do a preview of MLB's Home Run Derby (something I typically don't do) but jumped at the opportunity. Being somewhat "old school," when I think Home Run Derby, I think of the 1959 TV show held at Wrigley Field in Los Angeles. It featured some of the sluggers in MLB, squaring off against each other in nine-inning HR contests (a HR was a run and anything else an out, including a swing and a miss). I used watch the show in reruns during the '60s with my boyhood friend Peter and then we'd go out in my backyard with a whiffle ball and bat and recreate the setting.
The show was hosted by then-Hollywood Stars broadcaster Mark Scott and was contested at Wrigley Field in Los Angeles (yes, there was one there, too) Seven players who would eventually join MLB's 500-HR club appeared appeared. That select group included Hank Aaron, Ernie Banks, Harmon Killebrew, Mickey Mantle, Eddie Mathews, Willie Mays and Frank Robinson. In all, nine future Hall of Famers participated. The seven already listed, as well as Al Kaline and Duke Snider.
While one player was taking his turn at bat, the other player would be engage Scott in "small talk." Scott was as hokey as they come and MLB players of that day were hardly media-savvy. The weekly winner received $2,000 and was invited back for the next week's episode against a new opponent (the runner-up received $1,000). Bonuses of $500 were paid for three HRs in a row, a fourth HR was worth another $500 and any consecutive HR hit after that would each be worth $1,000 per.
I guess you have to be from that era to really appreciate it. Hank Aaron held the record for most money won on Home Run Derby ($13,500) and won six consecutive wins contests. Jackie Jensen was the only player to hit four and five HRs in a row and the entire series lasted just 26 contests. Host Mark Scott died in 1960 from a heart attack and the producers decided not to replace him and the show was canceled.
However, as with every walk of life, "imitation is the sincerest form of flattery." This TV series helped inspire the current Home Run Derby, which is contested the day before MLB's annual All-Star game. The contest began in 1985 (Pittsburgh's Dave Parker won) and has been held each year since, except for 1988 when it was canceled due to rain. Ken Griffey, Jr. is the event's only multiple winner, winning in 1994 and its lone repeat champ, winning in '98 and '99.
Vladimir Guerrero won last year but is not in this year's competition so Griffey's record is safe. Bobby Abreu, then with the Phillies, had a 24-HR first round in 2005, on his way to hitting 41 HRs, the most by any player. This year's competition is being held at Yankee Stadium, in the final season of "The House That Ruth Built" (new Yankee Stadium opens next year, right next door). Fittingly, the date is July 14 (7/14). One could write the date this way, 7-1-4 (Babe's career HR total). I saw this on a blog somewhere, but don't remember where (congrats to the author).
Now to this year's competition. As of Sunday morning, there was still one spot open, as the selection process for this year's Derby has taken longer than the Democratic primary. From the AL it's Josh Hamilton (Texas), Evan Longoria (Tampa Bay) and Grady Sizemore (Cleveland) plus a player to be named later (hopefully by Monday night). In the NL, it's Lance Berkman (Houston), Ryan Braun (Milwaukee), Dan Uggla (Florida) and Chase Utley (Philadelphia).
These are not exactly marquee names, as many players feel as if this competition hurts them. Conventional wisdom says that the constant swinging for home runs causes bad mechanics that are difficult to shake. The "poster boy" for this thinking is Bobby Abreu, who set a record with 41 HRs in the 2005 event in Detroit. He came into the Derby hitting .307 with 18 home runs but hit just .260 with six HRs the rest of the season. Is there any real truth to this? As you can see, I'm not so sure the facts back up the "theory."
A few days ago, Mel Antonen of USA TODAY wrote an article on the Derby and included was the below list.
Year Champion, team 1st half 2nd half Total
2000 Sammy Sosa, Cubs 23 27 50
2001 Luis Gonzalez, Diamondbacks 35 22 57
2002 Jason Giambi, Yankees 22 19 41
2003 Garret Anderson, Angels 22 7 29
2004 Miguel Tejada, Orioles 15 19 34
2005 Bobby Abreu, Phillies 18 6 24
2006 Ryan Howard, Phillies 28 30 58
2007 Vladimir Guerrero, Angels 14 13 27
As you can see, I'm not so sure the facts back up the "theory." So how does one handicap this thing? Here's my thoughts. First of all, a quick check of the past winners tell us that just two middle-infielders have won, Ryne Sandberg in 1990 (just a one round event in which he won with three HRs) and Miguel Tejada in 2004, who hit 27 HRs in a competition which featured the current format of three rounds. With that in mind, I'm dropping the two secondbasemen in the contest, Uggla and Utley.
Without a full field yet, no lines have been posted. However, I do know that in the past, most sportsbooks will make either the defending champ the favorite or the HR leader from the first half of the current season. That doesn't help us this year, as Guerrero ('07 champ) is not in this year's field and Ryan Howard (28 HRs), the majors' leading HR hitter as of Sunday morning, did not make this year's game. Utley (25 HRs) has the most HRs of any player in the competition (entering Sunday's play).
I've already eliminated him but I'll add that no player who led the first half in HRs has won the Derby or even made the final, over the last five contests. What I'm looking for is a guy who really "wants to win." My first choice is Houston's Lance Berkman. While so many guys want no part of this contest, Berkman is back for the fourth time in since 2002, as he's seemingly on the "every other year" plan. He hit just two HRs in '02, had 21 in '04 (losing to Tejada in the finals, 5-4) and had only three HRs in '06. I'm betting this is his year.
My second-choice is Josh Hamilton of the Rangers. His off-the-field troubles in the past have been well-documented but he's had a terrific first-half. In fact, I'd be surprised if he isn't the betting (and fan) favorite. Heading into's Sunday's play, Hamilton is hitting .314 with 21 HRs and 95 RBI (all-time record for RBI at the All-Star break is 103, held by Hank Greenberg in 1935). How can't Hamilton be the fan favorite, after the following story hit the AP wires a few days ago?
Clay Council (71-years-old), who helped Josh Hamilton develop his batting stroke as a 13-year-old, was invited by Hamilton to pitch to him in this year's HR Derby. When Hamilton's brother Cary played American Legion ball for Council in the 1990s, Hamilton would join in batting practice. Council still throws batting practice for Cary's American Legion team and says he will be making just his second trip to Yankee Stadium. According to Council, he claims his first visit was when Don Larsen pitched a perfect game against the Brooklyn Dodgers in Game 5 of the 1956 World Series.
Who am I to argue with that kind of karma? I'm calling for a Hamilton/Berkman final but I'm sticking with Berkman to win. Enjoy the three-day break.
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