Miami +11 over HOUSTON
The Houston Rockets hope to hand the Miami Heat a fifth loss in six games when they match up at the Compaq Center tonight. The Heat, who are opening a four-game road trip, capped a 1-3 four-game homestand with a 78-69 setback to New Orleans on Tuesday. Houston had lost three in a row before routing Utah at the Delta Center on Wednesday in the back end of a home-and-home series, 106-76.
The Rockets defeated the Heat in Miami on December 16, 105-100 in overtime, but have had a horrible time at home vs. Miami, losing 5 of 6 SU and ATS. The Heat will be without the services of Eddie Jones tonight, but will likely claw away to keep this one respectable. Since the start of the 1998 season Miami is a perfect 5-0 ATS as a road underdog with 3+ days rest off a home loss.
Houston has been wildly inconsistent this season and there is very good value in fading them as a double-digit favorite. In fact, they are a poor 1-8-1 ATS at home vs. NBA "CLASS D/F" opponents. The Rockets will enjoy several days off following this game before going to Los Angeles for "Yao vs. Shaq II" and could easily take Miami lightly here. Houston is 0-4 ATS as a home favorite before 3+ days rest and a road game, while the Heat are the mirror opposite 4-0 ATS. The Rockets should prevail here, but can be expected to let Miami hang around and keep this one interesting.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: HOUSTON 91 MIAMI 83