Holy Cross vs Marquette 12:20 PM EST
Holy Cross +11.5 over Marquette (5 Units)
We have a good chance at the first big upset of this NCAA Tournament in the first game of this tourney, as the number 14 seed Holy Cross faces off against the 3rd seed Marquette... Holy Cross has made quite the showing in the first round of the NCAA Tournament the past couple of years, losing by just eleven points to Kansas (as a 27.5-point dog) and by just four points the year before to the Kentucky Wildcats, who went off as a whopping 20.5-point fav... While Marquette has had a solid year overall, going 23-5 on the year, the Golden Eagles have struggled quite a bit in the NCAA Tournament, losing their last three contests, including a first-round loss as a five-point favorite last year against Tulsa...
March in general has been rough for the Eagles, as a 5-11 ATS mark has shown them incapable of coming through in the clutch when the pressure is on... and considering that Marquette has only won one game by more than eleven points in their last eleven contests heading into the tournament, we have a difficult time seeing them covering this spread against a Holy Cross team that has proven themselves capable against top-flight competition when the situation has arisen...
In fact, the Crusaders are now 3-0-1 ATS in their last four games against NCAA worthy competition, covering not only against Kansas and Kentucky in the tournament, but also covering the spread against the Jayhawks earlier this season, and losing by ten points (as a ten-point underdog) at Boston College the previous season... considering that Marquette is now 0-4 ATS in their last four games as a favorite of more than nine points, we believe that laying this many points is asking for trouble, especially against a Holy Cross team that is certainly tournament tested, with senior center Patrick Whearty working the inside and junior guard Jave Meade, who led the Patriot League in assist to turnover ratio (2.61 to 1) this season...
Ball-control is the name of the game when it hits tournament time, and with Meade leading the way along with some hefty size in the middle (Whearty is 6'9'', Nate Lufkin is 6'11''), as well as four players who can put the ball in the hoop (Whearty, Meade, Brian Wilson, and Tim Szatko are all averaging over 11 ppg), Marquette is going to have some trouble figuring out who to stop...
On the flipside of Holy Cross and their ball-control, the Marquette Golden Eagles are coming off a loss where they committed a whopping 30 turnovers and gave up a Conference-USA record 20 steals against UAB... a performance like that is difficult to correct in such a short span of time, and we see Marquette being given all they can handle against a very disciplined and well-coached Holy Cross team... when all is said and done, we're calling for the first major upset of the NCAA Tournament to occur immediately, as the 14th-seeded Crusaders knock off the 3rd-seeded Golden Eagles...
FINAL PREDICTION: HOLY CROSS 70, MARQUETTE 68
Illinois vs Western Kentucky 7:10 PM EST
Illinois -9.5 over Western Kentucky (4 Units)
There's nothing like being slighted to incite a team towards success, and that is the situation in which we find the Fighting Illini in this NCAA Tournament... despite being the 10th ranked team in the country and winning the Big 10 tournament to cap off a 24-6 season, Illinois has been placed as the fourth seed in what is arguably the toughest region in this tournament...
Regardless of their seed in the NCAA Tournament, Illinois has loved playing in the first round over the past several seasons, going a perfect 5-0 SU and ATS to start off their last five tourneys... in all five opening round games, the Illini have been favored, and in all five games, Illinois has dispatched the opposition by double-digit margins... as a favorite in the NCAA Tournament, Illinois has felt right at home, winning and covering five straight contests, and eight of their last ten games overall... and with a 10-4 ATS mark in the NCAA Tournament since 1996-97, Illinois appears to be as well prepared as any team to take care of business in the first round...
Western Kentucky, on the other hand, is searching for their first NCAA Tournament win since 1993... and despite getting invited each of the last two years to March Madness, the Hilltoppers have been humiliated in both instances, losing to Stanford last year by an 84-68 margin as just a 3.5-point underdog, and being upended by a 69-56 margin against Florida two seasons ago, despite having been favored by a whopping eight points... two straight first-round exits by a combined 29 points (and 33.5 points ATS) can't be providing much confidence for Western Kentucky against an Illinois team that by all rights should have been considered for a #2 seed instead of the fourth seed they were given...
Nine of Illinois' last twelve wins have come by double-digits, helping the Illini to go 6-2 ATS as a favorite of more than four points in their last eight games... and while we understand that it was the first game of the season, Western Kentucky showed a very strong inability to compete with top-notch competition by getting whalloped by Arizona by a 107-68 margin as a sixteen-point dog... Illinois has shown an ability to shut down their opposition by holding four of their last five opponents (all Big 10 opponents) to 65 points or less... and there's a big difference between outscoring Big 10 competition by fourteen points per game (as was Illinois' average scoring margin this season) and outscoring Sun Belt competition by 6.7 ppg on the year...
When all is said and done, we expect the difference in competition level to manifest itself in a similar method as each of Illinois' last five first-round efforts against inferior foes - with an extremely easy double-digit victory... take Illinois, as they cover this 9.5-point spread with ease and make a statement to the NCAA seeding committee...
FINAL PREDICTION: ILLINOIS 85, WESTERN KENTUCKY 64
Notre Dame vs Wisconsin-Milwaukee 9:40 PM EST
Wisconsin-Milwaukee +5 over Notre Dame (3.5 Units)
The Wisconsin-Milwaukee Panthers make their very first appearance in the NCAA Tournament this season after knocking off Butler in the Horizon League Championship 69-52... and while most smaller conferences offer up some weaklings as their league champion, the Horizon League has actually sent two teams to the tourney, as both Wisconsin-Milwaukee and Butler have been installed as twelve seeds, a pretty amazing feat considering that most smaller conferences get the honor of appearing as a seed no higher than fourteen...
While Wisconsin-Milwaukee has certainly exceeded expectations coming from a smaller conference, the Notre Dame Fighting Irish seem to have been placed in the role of fifth seed more as a result of their early-season performance and their position within the more renowned Big East than by their recent performance... the Irish have stumbled on their path into the NCAA Tournament with four SU and ATS losses in their last five games, including losses to St. John's and Rutgers, two teams too weak to be considered for this year's group of 65... Notre Dame's major downfall has been their defense, which has allowed at least 80 points to five straight opponents, and an average of 87.4 ppg in that timeframe...
Such failure on defense has led to the Fighting Irish being a horrendous favorite over the past few months... not only is Notre Dame just 4-11-1 ATS in their last sixteen games as a favorite, but they are a horrendous 0-7-1 ATS in their last eight contests as a single-digit favorite, a role in which they find themselves in this contest...
On the flipside of Notre Dame's failures as a single-digit favorite, the Pirates have been very strong as a single-digit dog, covering four of their last five games as such... additionally, in their last thirteen games overall, not only is Wisconsin-Milwaukee a stunning 11-2 straight up, but each of their last two losses have come by just two points... and while Notre Dame's defense has been lacking, Wisconsin-Green Bay is allowing just 69.9 ppg on the season, and have allowed 80+ points just once in their last sixteen games...
In a tournament where games are often more decided by defensive intensity than offensive firepower, we have a difficult time seeing Notre Dame emerging from this contest with a win, let alone a covering effort... last season, three #5 seeds were dropped in the first round by #12 seeds, and we believe we will see at least one instance of this occurrence repeating itself, as the Panthers make their initial trek to the NCAA Tournament a successful one with a first-round upset of the reeling Irish...
FINAL PREDICTION: WISCONSIN-GREEN BAY 81, NOTRE DAME 78
Memphis vs Arizona State 7:10 PM EST
Memphis -3.5 over Arizona State (3 Units)
Another team that got a bit slighted in the seeding department and was shipped out to the West Region looks to prove their worth to the NCAA seeding committee, as the seventh seeded Memphis Tigers face the tenth seeded Arizona State Sun Devils in the first round of the NCAA Tournament...
The fact that Memphis was seeded seventh came as a big surprise to most, as Memphis comes into this tournament as one of the hottest teams in college basketball, with twelve wins in their last thirteen games and an 11-2 ATS mark in those contests... Memphis has enjoyed life as a favorite, going a perfect 11-0 SU and 9-2 ATS when favored over the opposition... and as a small favorite over the reeling Sun Devils, we like Memphis to win and cover this contest with relative ease...
Arizona State comes into this contest having dropped four of their last six games overall straight up, and with a horrid 1-6 ATS mark in their last seven games... And while Memphis has thrived in the role of favorite, the Sun Devils have done little to prove the oddsmakers wrong, going 0-5 straight up and 1-4 ATS in their last five games as an underdog... perhaps the most disappointing aspect of the Sun Devils' season is the fact that they have underachieved when placed in a situation where the outcome is in doubt, as ASU is 0-6 ATS when the line is less than five points either way... with today's line sitting at 3.5 points, this looks to be yet another situation of failure for the Sun Devils...
Memphis has earned their stripes against quality teams this season, going 5-1 ATS against teams that received invitations to the NCAA Tournament, with four straight up wins in those six contests... Additionally, the Memphis defense has been playing as a well-oiled unit, allowing just 63.2 ppg in their last five games, and holding the opposition to just 37.7 percent shooting from the field in those contests... with the Sun Devils allowing opponents to shoot a whopping 47.8 percent from the field over their last five, they will be in serious trouble if Memphis is able to continue their stifling ways on defense... in our opinion, Memphis should be able to keep up their defensive tenacity enough to take down the inconsistent Sun Devils and advance to the second round... with that in mind, take the Tigers and lay the points...
FINAL PREDICTION: MEMPHIS 80, ARIZONA STATE 70
Arizona vs Vermont 3:10 PM EST
Vermont +26 over Arizona (2.5 Units)
The Arizona Wildcats might be the favorite to advance to the Final Four from the West Region as the number one seed, but we believe that this line has been set a bit too high for the Wildcats to cover against the Vermont Catamounts, who are making their first NCAA Tournament trip in team history...
Such inexperience is normally a troubling situation, but when you are a team that is holding opponents to just 63.1 ppg and have not allowed more than 83 points to an opponent all year, getting 26 points from your opponent almost seems like a gift... and while the Catamounts were unceremoniously destroyed by North Carolina earlier in the year, they were without America East player of the year Taylor Coppenrath, and came at the conclusion of a horrid 0-6 SU stretch... since that time, Vermont has emerged from their hibernation with an 18-5 SU finish to their season... granted, their competition is not nearly the caliber of the Wildcats, but when your overall style is to play defensively-minded basketball, your chances of covering a 26-point spread are pretty high overall...
Those chances increase when you consider Arizona's failures as a double-digit favorite... in their last eleven games as a double-digit favorite, Arizona has gone a pitiful 2-9 ATS... and in their last six games as a double-digit road fav, the Wildcats are just 1-5 ATS, including three straight ATS losses to close their season... additionally, the Wildcats have tended to struggle in the first round of the NCAA Tournament, going just 1-3 ATS in the opening round the past four years... Arizona should win this one handily, but asking them to win by 26 may just be a bit too much for a team that has been on cruise control heading into the tournament... take Vermont and the points...
FINAL PREDICTION: ARIZONA 83, VERMONT 63
Connecticut vs BYU 2:40 PM EST
Connecticut -4 over BYU (3 Units)
Cincinnati vs Gonzaga 12:40 PM EST
Gonzaga +1.5 over Cincinnati (2.5 Units)
California vs NC State 12:25 PM EST
California +1 over NC State (1.5 Units)
Kansas vs Utah State 9:40 PM EST
Utah State/Kansas Under 133 (1.5 Units)
Oklahoma vs South Carolina State 2:55 PM EST
South Carolina State +26 over Oklahoma (1 Unit)