Hidden value in the madness of March
SPORTS PROFIT SYSTEMS
Sports Profit Systems is a handicapping service with Covers Experts. If you'd like to buy their plays for today's games, click here.
When you think of betting on hoops in March, obviously the first thing that comes to mind is March Madness: the all-encompassing term that people use to describe the entire month, including the final rivalry week, the conference tournaments, the NIT and of course the NCAA Tournament.
It conjures up neutral site games, bubbles bursting, Cinderellas, the race to the field of 65 and of course the infamous brackets. For some (primarily the mainstream) March Madness simply means the Big Dance itself, and the embarrassing possibility of losing that bracket contest to the woman who picked UCLA and North Carolina in the final because their uniforms have prettier colors.
Although we get caught up in it like anyone else, we also like to take advantage of the opportunities this presents in the other sports – most notably the NBA. Because of all of the attention and huge amounts of wagering volume on the college games this month, the NBA lines probably move way down the priority totem pole for the oddsmakers. What this leads to – especially in the month of March – is an abundance of formulaic lines. And this is magnified even more on the big tournament days – Thursday through Sunday.
So while everyone else is eyeing the college board, we like to take a close look at the NBA board to see if there are any gems up there ripe for the plucking. And it never fails, we will find pointspreads AND totals that are way off.
We imagine the sportsbooks quite simply don’t care if they get beat up a little bit by NBA players this month. They get so much balanced action on college in March, they’ll be lighting cigars after the final game no matter what happens on their NBA ledger. All the better for us. Because NBA teams driving toward the playoffs stay motivated even if they're ignored by a lot of sports fans this month.
So what do you look for? There are basically two layers of teams in March. The top layer consists of any team that has a chance of making the playoffs. They will go full bore on most nights (even some of the teams at the top of the conference standings) because they’re playing for seeding. In MOST cases those teams don’t take it easy until early April (although there are some who will loaf through March).
Then there’s the bottom layer: teams who know they have no shot at the playoffs. They are playing primarily for individual stats, contract incentives, and to avoid embarrassment at the strip club later that night. Obviously they are for the most part much less motivated than the top layer. So if you’re someone who likes to play favorites, watch for matchups in the NBA in March that feature a motivated team against a non-motivated team – especially if the motivated team is at home.
Sometimes with this scenario, the spread just can’t be high enough. There are blowouts galore in the NBA this time of year and you see 10-15 point home favorites win by 20-35 points with regularity. We’re not saying to play that blindly as a system because the circumstances for each individual game are unique. We’re just saying keep an eye out for the situation and keep in mind who’s motivated and who’s just going through the motions.
So what about on the underdog side? We prefer playing dogs as well, and believe it or not there are great opportunities for that with March NBA also. However, with the dogs you want to look for lower spreads in the +4 to +9 range. Home or road, it doesn’t matter.
Again, what you mainly want to focus on is motivation. The ideal scenario is a middle crust team that still has a playoff shot going up against an upper crust team that knows they’re in and may be taking it easy on their stars as they prep for the playoff grind. That and bad teams at home who can still be motivated – especially if it’s a Friday night, weekend or a TV game. Careful with the home dogs though; you really want to pick your spots. Some will just pack it in and get crushed with visions of Mai Tai’s and tee times dancing in their heads. Try to feel out the effort you envision them putting forward versus the opponent’s – and why.
But what’s most important for both of these scenarios is that in order to stack the deck in your favor, it helps to find lines that are “off,” which as we mentioned is rampant in the NBA in March. You’ll know if a line is off if it leaps out at you as not making sense. Once you get to know the teams, their motivation levels, their home and road performance, and you follow their patterns, don’t think you’re wrong when you have a hunch.
Have confidence that you know more than the average player for whom the number was hung. Take a quick look at injuries, headlines, game day coverage from the beat writers, and coach-speak. And hop on those forums to see if there’s anything going on you don’t know about. If not, pounce.
You never know why a number could be off – it could be just a formulaic line based on public perception, it may have moved as the result of some silly steam, who knows? Line movers are wrong plenty.
Don’t forget: money moves lines, not necessarily sound analysis or information. Changes could be due to a couple of behemoths or a ton of little guys, but in either case they could be dolts. So don’t panic and hold back on a play if a line went wrong because it moved. Jump on it anyway.
There will be plenty of surprises in March NBA, which is all the more reason the oddsmakers don’t stress about it if they hang a bad number.