Hoops teams peaking at the right time
By STEVE MERRIL
Below is a look at three college teams and one NBA squad that are in excellent form as they head towards the postseason. Take a close look at each of these underrated teams and add some profit to your bankroll this spring.
Louisville: Sometimes you can take a coach’s interview as mere coach-speak and other times there is something to be learned. All you had to do is watch Rick Pitino after his last couple of TV wins and you can tell that the veteran coach can barely contain his excitement over these Cardinals.
Not only are his redbirds smoking right now, but they still remain under the radar. No one is really talking about them and that is rare for a Pitino team. His squad can keep its nasty edge at 18th in one poll and 23rd in another despite winning eight out of nine games in the Big East. The Cards' only loss came by a basket at Connecticut.
Pitino did a good job of experimenting with different lineups early on as this team battled through injuries in November and December. He’s getting tremendous play on both sides of the court from previously enigmatic Terrence Williams who is averaging 12 points, eight boards and nearly five assists per game from his small forward position.
The Cardinals press as well as any team in the country and are third in the nation in defensive field goal percentage (37) and first in the Big East in defensive efficiency by a wide margin as opponents average only an estimated 89 points per 100 possessions.
Outlook: Legitimate Final Four threat. Receiving a lot less hype than other Top 10 caliber teams, which means there may be some value come tourney time.
Marquette: If the Golden Eagles can avoid the first team on our list, Louisville, then they can go a long way come NCAA tourney time. They have lost two meetings by a combined 37 points against the Cardinals this season. In those two games, the Golden Eagles shot a combined 6-for-29 from behind the three-point line.
Marquette has been very disappointing at times this season, but their play has started to improve, and there are few teams that can match up with them athletically in the backcourt. Their recent 7-2 SU and 5-3 ATS surge has been sparked by talented, yet an inconsistent, Dominic James finally accepting his role as a point guard. He has a 34/8 assist/turnover ratio in his past five games. He is dribbling less, picking his spots as a scorer, and playing defense on every possession as opposed to early in his career when the opposite was often true during big games.
His fellow backcourt mates, Jerel McNeal and Wesley Matthews, are simply too good for James to have to go into the teeth of tough defenses every single possession of every single game. Don’t let their dependence on this dynamic backcourt mislead you into categorizing Marquette as a finesse team. These guys are power guards that can get their own shot, convert after contact, and rebound like forwards.
Outlook: If this team finally plays to its talent and James continues his efficient play and willingness to defer to others, Marquette could be an Elite 8 type team. A lot depends on their matchup as they can really cause trouble for teams that don’t have multiple perimeter defenders.
Gonzaga: The Zags are in the unfamiliar role of chaser in the West Coast Conference behind a talented St. Mary’s squad. Gonzaga is still a power in the WCC as they are now healthy and junior forward Josh Heytvelt and freshman guard Steven Gray missed 11 and nine games respectively early on, and this is a team that can hurt you from all five positions on the court.
They have eight players averaging between six and 13 points per game and they are one of only 18 teams to rank in Pomeroy’s Top 35 in adjusted (for schedule strength) efficiency on both sides of the court. Their young players are really starting to develop and despite playing most of a brutal non-conference slate without Gray and Heytvelt, they have not lost a game by more than 10 points all season.
Their last two losses were noteworthy when they lost by only eight points at Memphis (pulled to within five in the last minute) and lost in overtime at St. Mary’s in a game where the Gaels had a huge scheduling advantage. St. Mary's needed late heroics and controversial calls in both regulation and overtime to win that one. The fact that these huge performances were losses has kept Mark Few’s bunch under the radar and there may be some value down the stretch and in postseason action.
Outlook: Do not let the slow start fool you. The Zags are as talented as ever and they are a serious threat to make the Sweet 16 or perhaps even further in the NCAA Tourney.
L.A. Lakers: Few realize how much Andrew Bynum had improved this season before his knee injury. He is scheduled back in March and if he can contribute 75-percent of what he did pre-injury (13 ppg, 10 rebounds per game, two blocks per game), then the Lakers have an excellent chance to come out of the monster Western Conference and win the NBA championship.
Phil Jackson’s offense has always worked without a great point guard and the frontcourt of Gasol, Odom, and Bynum is the NBA’s best. Don’t forget about Kobe Bryant and one of the league’s best benches, which will be even better once Trevor Ariza and Chris Mihm come back.
Kobe only needed a little bit of help - and he got much more than a little bit - and this team was already one of the NBA’s best before Gasol came aboard. They enter the week on a current 12-2 SU and 13-1 ATS run. O0nly two of those 14 games were played at home.
Outlook: Monitor Bynum’s knee and Kobe’s finger. The ideal situation would be if this team would have to rest Kobe and lose a few games down the stretch to add value for the playoffs. They are currently priced behind Boston, Detroit and at some spots even San Antonio and Phoenix to win the NBA title. If healthy, I don’t think any of those teams will beat the Lakers in a seven game series.
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