How to handicap the NCAA conference tournaments

How to handicap the NCAA conference tournaments
By JASON LOGAN

Betting on regular season NCAA basketball games and betting on conference tournament games can be as different as Duke and North Carolina.

Some teams have everything on the line and others are just tuning up for the Big Dance, so bettors have to be careful not to fall victim to the nature of the beast.

The power conference tournaments start this week and handicappers are sharpening up for the equally sharp lines that oddsmakers will set for those days before Selection Sunday.

Covers.com interviewed a number of professional handicappers to find out what they weigh-in on the most when preparing to bet on NCAA conference tournaments.

Recent play

The most important factor handicappers consider when preparing for the conference tourneys is recent performance in the closing games of conference play, which can count more than full-season statistics. Schools that have struggled in their final regular season games, like Clemson, may carry these skids into the tournament.

On the other side, teams like Syracuse or Michigan State, which are finding their stride as the postseason approaches, can continue their hot play and ride it to an impressive showing in the conference tournament.

These streaks as well as the team’s overall standing in the conference can affect how they approach the conference tournament. A school that has played consistently well all season and is a lock for the NCAA tournament will not rely so much on its conference tourney performance the way a team like last year’s Georgia Bulldogs would. Desperate squads that need a conference title to get into the field of 65 can be the ones to watch.

Fatigue

The grueling pace of the conference tournament also plays in capper’s thinking, not to mention the added stress of travel and life on the road for players during the tournament weekend. Advancing into later rounds tests a team’s depth and durability, forcing them to play back-to-back games as well as live out of a suitcase during the tournament.

Teams like Marquette, which have a short bench, are susceptible to fatigue while a team that has a lot of reserve talent like North Carolina, can overcome playing so many games in a short period of time.

So many other factors can make or break a bet in conference play. The neutral site can erase any home-court advantage that aided teams over the season as well as impact a shooting accuracy because of the unfamiliar dimensions of the arena.

Sweet revenge

Any history between conference rivals can also play into the outcome of a game. A bad defeat or a buzzer-beating finish from the past can be enough to spark an opponent out for revenge. Teams like Illinois, which suffered two tough losses to the Nittany Lions this season, have learned from those mistakes and will be out for retribution in the tournament.

A similar situation is when a team comes into the conference tournament with a chip on their shoulder because of a poor regular season. A team like UCLA, which has underperformed in Pac-10 play this season, could use these struggles as motivation and find its true form just in time to play spoiler in the conference tournament.

Lineups and matchups

Matchup problems on the roster and in experience can give bettors the edge they need in the postseason. A smaller team like the Golden Eagles could run into a towering frontcourt of a school like UConn or a young team like the Miami Hurricanes could be undone by a veteran-led squad like UNC.

The same could be said for coaching. A first-year coach, not wise to the tactics and strategies needed to go deep into the postseason, could fall victim to the know-how of a battle-tested, tournament savvy coach.

During conference tournament play, sportsbooks adjust to the increase of public attention these games receive and make sure pointspreads and totals are at their sharpest. However, most handicappers agree that during this time of year, it is a bit easier to find value.

Because of the wide array of intangibles that conference tournaments bring about, professional bettors find it easier to get the edge on the oddsmakers. But this value can’t be found without doing the homework on the competing teams and like always, handicapping is a day-to-day, situational science.