How to handle the midweek MAC games
Covers.com
The old show business adage that all publicity is good publicity is a saying that regular Mid-American Conference bettors might question.
The MAC usually doesn’t register on the national scale. However, that changes late in the college football season when the MAC is showcased with mid-week games that air on ESPN2 and ESPNU.
The players love the attention, the coaches love the exposure for potential recruits and football junkies love the chance to watch live college action on a weeknight. But, do bettors lose an edge with each camera that rolls off the ESPN trucks and on to a MAC sideline?
As Covers.com editor Jon Campbell pointed out in his Week 11 “College four-play,” the MAC has been a haven for playing the over. The conference’s 71-48-1 over/under (O/U) record through Friday’s game easily makes the MAC the most over-dominant conference in college football.
And, thanks to the Week 11 showcase games, Joe Public knows all about it.
It started last Tuesday when the Central Michigan Chippewas and the Western Michigan Broncos combined for 48 fourth-quarter points in a 34-31 shootout. The pace only increased on Wednesday when the Akron Zips outscored the Ohio Bobcats, 48-37. The final showcase game was on Friday night as the Bowling Green Falcons outlasted the Eastern Michigan Eagles, 39-32.
The three games, which averaged 73.7 points, all played over the closing total. Though every college football fan in the country bore witness to the point-fests, oddsmakers don’t seem overly worried.
“We’re not going to raise the totals too high based on one week’s worth of scores because the wise guys would hammer it on the other side,” says Pete Korner, founder of the Sports Club consulting service in Las Vegas.
“We’re already high on that conference’s totals and there’s been a decent mix of results over the last few weeks, so there’s no red flag for us at this point,” Korner continued. “Bettors might scoop one or two more than they lose, but I’m OK with where we are for MAC games.”
Besides, Korner and his peers always keep public betting habits in mind any time there’s only one game on a given day.
“I’d be lying if I said we already didn’t have an eye on the over and the favorite for any of those games when they’re the only action of the night,” Korner said. “We’ll bump them a little because they’re the only things on TV and there’ll be a lot more handle.”
That means the Week 12 MAC games will be business as usual for handicappers, and they’ll be ready if public bettors pound the over in the week ahead.
“I think the only reason a lot of guys play those games is because they’re during the week,” Covers Expert Scott Rickenbach says “It could be a mistake if they just start blindly playing the over. Sharp players might actually end up getting line value on this because it could lead to value going the other way!”
There is a trio of midweek MAC games in the week ahead.
The Toledo Rockets and the Ball State Cardinals meet Tuesday night in Muncie, Ind. Neither school will have played since Saturday, Nov. 3. The two schools have a combined 13-5 O/U record this season and Toledo games have played over the total eight of nine times.
Akron and the Miami Redhawks face off Wednesday night in Oxford, Ohio. The Redhawks will have three more days of rest than the Zips. The teams regularly engage in high-scoring affairs, averaging 64 points per game over their last five head-to-head meetings.
Eastern Michigan travels to Mt. Pleasant, Mich. on Friday night to face Central Michigan. The Chippewas will not only have home-field advantage, they’ll have had three more days of preparation. The two Michigan schools are 12-6-1 O/U this season, with the Chippewas’ 7-1-1 O/U mark making them nearly as dependable an over play as Toledo.