How to safely bet baseball's pitching debuts
By JOSH NAGEL
Whenever a pitcher makes his Major League Baseball debut, the effect for sports bettors can be akin to unwrapping a present at the company’s white elephant gift exchange.
You never know what you are going to get.
And with all due respect to Forrest Gump, at least you know a box of chocolates is going to contain chocolate of some sort. The same can’t be said for these unknown arms.
Oddsmakers and handicappers agree that the best way to handle a pitcher’s first cup of coffee in the big leagues might be to take a break from the sportsbook.
“The safest approach usually is to stay away … that’s what we tend do to,” said Covers Experts David Malinsky. “There are so many odd reversals, and results that are so far away from the projections, that it’s usually not worth it to play.”
Regardless of the quantity or quality of data that might be available for the hurler who is stepping up to the majors, Malinsky noted that the risk lies in the uncertainty of how they will respond to the bright lights and big stage.
“We look like geniuses after the game (if we win), but it’s just so difficult to tell how the pitcher will handle the individual psychological pressure of the setting,” he said.
Take the case of two pitchers who recently broke into the majors, Atlanta’s highly touted Tommy Hanson and Minnesota’s lesser-known Anthony Swarzak.
Hanson, long regarded as the Braves’ top pitching prospect, made one of the worst big-stage debuts since a boy band by the same name released “Mmm Bop” in 1997.
The 6-foot-6 right-hander gave up seven runs (six earned) in six innings against the Milwaukee Brewers June 7. He gave up three home runs and eventually got a no-decision as the Braves won the slug fest 8-7. The Braves were a -140 chalk to win the game.
Swarzak, on the other hand, made a less-publicized foray into the big leagues when he took the mound for the Twins against the Milwaukee Brewers May 23. He pitched seven scoreless innings of five-hit baseball and got the win as the Twins (-120) beat the Brewers 6-2.
Even so, the 23-year-old Swarzak is 0-2 with a no decision and a 5.23 ERA in his subsequent three starts. This is why oddsmakers caution against reading too much into a pitcher’s first start, or even his first handful of starts, for that matter.
“I don’t like to get too deep into the early results,” said Las Vegas-based oddsmaker Jimmy Vaccaro, director of sports operations for Lucky’s Race and Sportsbook.
“Sometimes a guy wins a couple of games and they think he’s the next Sandy Koufax, but you have to realize the next game is still a 50-50 proposition. Or, say, he gets yanked in the sixth inning with the score tied, then the game is just a gamble the rest of the way anyway. Your guess is as good as mine.”
Vaccaro said his sportsbooks will act quickly to adjust a line on a new pitcher, particularly if there is significant action going against him. Even so, he emphasized that heavy action on a game involving a pitcher’s debut is rare, despite the significant influence starting pitching makes on the line.
“The line is dictated on starting pitching more than anything else,” the oddsmaker said. “But obviously, the clubs involved think the guy is worthy of starting a game at the MLB level.
“We don’t see a lot of crazy line movements when a guy gets ready to start his first game. There aren’t people lining up to bet 90 percent for or against the guy. It’s usually similar to the normal set-up for a game.”