INDIANA -6 over Detroit
The Indiana Pacers will be out to avenge their only home defeat of the season tonight when they host the Detroit Pistons in a battle of the top two teams in the Central Division. Indiana had a five-game winning streak end at Boston last night, 98-93, while Detroit was winning for the fifth time in seven January games with a 99-82 home triumph over New York.
The Pacers are a league-best 17-1 at Conseco Fieldhouse but lost here to Detroit on November 23, 106-91. With a road trip to Detroit looming, we expect the Pacers to get their licks in here. Indiana is a nice 4-2 ATS as a home favorite looking to get revenge for a home fave loss, while the Pistons are 0-2 ATS in the trend's opposing role, creating a strong trend dichotomy. As a home favorite of 5 or more points in a situation where both teams are playing without rest, Indiana is a solid 6-0 ATS. Other numbers also indicate that the Pacers are primed for a peak performance here. At home off a road loss they are 8-1 ATS, while Detroit is 1-3 ATS vs. such opponents. The Pacers are also 6-1 ATS at home vs. foes off a home win. In this precise situation, at home off a road loss vs. a team off a home win, they are 6-1 ATS, including a perfect 3-0 this season. Detroit again completes a strong trend dichotomy, as they are 0-2 ATS in the opposing role this season.
Without question, the Pistons are a very good road team; however, they will be facing one of the strongest home teams in the league. Indiana is 14-3 ATS as a home favorite, 11-2-1 ATS at home vs. opponents playing without rest off a home win, and a very sharp 12-0 ATS as a Saturday home fave of 5+ points. While Detroit is off a big win over the Knicks, we note the league is only 2-6 ATS on the road without rest off a home SU/ATS victory over New York. Meanwhile, the NBA is a perfect 8-0 ATS at home without rest off a loss in Boston against all opponents, except the Celtics themselves.
With the heat of the Pistons breath on their necks in the Central Division race, playing with revenge, and looking to get the taste of last night's defeat out of their mouths, Indiana will come out here playing inspired, spirited basketball. Detroit likes to mix it up and get physical. Ron Artest and the Pacers certainly will not back down from the challenge and should be in control of tonight's game.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: INDIANA 97 DETROIT 87
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