Indianapolis/CINCINNATI selection
CINCINNATI -3 over Indianapolis
Carson Palmer gets his final dress rehearsal of his preseason on Friday, when the former #1 draft pick and his Cincinnati Bengals host the Indianapolis Colts. Palmer is expected to play the first quarter of this week's game, and possibly a little more. The signal-caller completed 12 of 26 passes for 171 yards and an interception in last Saturday's 37-10 loss to Atlanta, while Indianapolis comes in off a 30-17 victory over Buffalo the same night.
In addition to Palmer, Bengals coach Marvin Lewis will take a long look at wide receiver Peter Warrick who is eager to get some time on field for the first time this preseason. Rookie first-round draft choice Chris Perry will also get an extended appearance before the Paul Brown Stadium crowd. On defense, Lewis will seek more positive signs from a secondary that gave up 214 yards and three long scoring passes to rookie quarterback Matt Schaub last week.
Indianapolis quarterback Peyton Manning is not expected to play more than the first series against the Bengals, before yielding to backups Cory Sauter, Joe Hamilton, and Jim Sorgi. Actually, Hamilton's status is questionable due to a rib injury he sustained late in the Buffalo game. Running back Edgerrin James, who missed last week's game due to injury, is not expected to be in the lineup this week either. Running backs James Mungro and Dominic Rhodes are also unlikely to play, leaving the Colts very thin in the backfield.
Despite their victory over Buffalo last week, Indy’s offense is nowhere near mid-season form. Manning was picked off twice, the Colts fumbled the ball three times, losing it twice, and committed seven penalties, including three on the game's first series. The starting offense, which played until midway through the third quarter, managed only one legitimate scoring drive. Cincinnati will certainly be looking to step up their play as they take on this dangerous offense. With Carson Palmer getting extended play, Cincinnati should enjoy an advantage when they have the ball as well. We also note that a very strong preseason system is active here, as .500+ underdogs and favorites of less than 4 points off a SU loss of 20+ points are 18-4 ATS in Week 4 against opponents off a SU win.
The Bengals are a young, talented team that will have its ups and downs. Two weeks ago they looked tremendous in dismantling the world champion New England Patriots, then barely showed up in Atlanta against the Falcons last week. We look for them to bounce back here against a quality opponent like the Colts. While they may not roll over Indy like they did the Pats, they should be solid enough to earn the SU & ATS victory.
I like the play.