Learn To Bet Wisely Thursday, July 04, 2002
MLB: Seeing the big 'pitcher'
By Pat Miller
This article is the first in a three-part series from Pat Miller. In these articles he will examine the most and least profitable pitchers in the Majors.
One of the unique aspects of betting baseball is one element stands out above all the rest: The pitchers.
There are a few names which stand out above the rest, but as any experienced bettor knows, it doesn't always pay to simply stick with the big arm.
As the third month of the baseball season winds down, let's take a look at some of the 'Big Guns' and see who among them is paying dividends at the ticket window and who is 'eating chalk'.
Randy Johnson (Arizona Diamondbacks): The 'Big Unit' continues to strike fear into the hearts of opposing hitters this season. The lanky lefthander has led the D'backs to an astonishing 15-2 mark, and has banked a generous 10.4 units for his supporters. Despite the heavy 'chalk' that always accompanies Johnson, he continues to pad bankrolls.
Curt Schilling (Arizona Diamondbacks): The other half of the D'backs one-two punch hasn't fared as well as his counterpart in the win column or at the ticket window. Arizona is 13-4 when Schilling gets the nod.
Schilling has dropped his last three starts, which has proven costly when you factor in the heavy 'juice' attached to this ace. The veteran's supporters are barely hanging on to a profit of 3.65 units.
Greg Maddux (Atlanta Braves): 'Mad Dog' was a bit of a question mark on opening day, as he battled a number of nagging injuries. However, Maddux has silenced his critics again, leading the Braves to an 11-4 mark. He's racked up a nifty profit of 5.5 units for his backers.
Tom Glavine (Atlanta Braves): Glavine is another perennial top-notch performer from the Atlanta franchise, only he throws from the left side. Glavine depends on changing speeds and pinpoint accuracy.
He continues to do so with success, and the Braves are 13-5 when the southpaw gets the nod. People riding on the 'Glavine Train' have pocketed 5.5 units in his starts this season.
Roger Clemens (New York Yankees): Since jumping out to a remarkably quick start last season, Clemens has been disappointing since. Perhaps the 'Rocket' is slowly leaking fuel.
Although the Yankees are above .500 when Clemens starts (9-8), the Texan fireballer has disappointed at the window, costing his supporters a hefty 6.5 units on the campaign.
Matt Morris (St. Louis Cardinals): Since winning 22 games last season, the former Seton Hall Pirate doesn't come cheap this time around. Morris is pitching well again to start the season, tossing his way to an 11-6 mark in his starts.
However, his six losses were costly ones and Morris sits a slim 0.9 of a unit above the break-even mark on the season.
Pedro Martinez (Boston Red Sox): Pedro isn't pitching the best baseball of his career, but is still performing well enough to get the job done. The BoSox are providing run support and Martinez has cashed for his followers in 12 of his 16 starts.
That mark calculates into a tidy profit of 9.35 units.
Martinez is a warm weather pitcher, and should only get better as the summer months arrive.
Tim Hudson (Oakland Athletics): After winning 38 games for the Athletics over the past two seasons, Hudson got off to a rocky start in 2002.
Over one stretch, Hudson went eight straight games without a win. Much of the blame can be laid on the bullpen, as the A's relievers blew four leads for the Auburn alumnus during the slump.
The result is a 9-8 mark for Oakland when Hudson starts. The money is at an even zero.
Freddy Garcia (Seattle Mariners): The M's are 12-5 when Garcia toes the rubber this season.
The 26-year-old now owns a solid career record of 54-24. Garcia's 12-5 record has produced a profit of 4.35 units.
Jon Lieber (Chicago Cubs): Leiber is a perfect example of a great pitcher who falls victim to his team's inability to hold a lead. The Cubs are just 8-7 when Leiber starts.
Although the veteran has just four losses, his starts have cost bettors 1.03 units. Lieber will continue to be a heavy 'chalk' despite the Cubs woes and you'll be hard pressed to find any value in him.
All in all, most of the 'big names' have lived up to their potential thus far. However, the problem is the omni-present 'risk-versus-reward' dilemma.
Schilling provides the best example of a huge risk for little reward.
The ace has led his team to a 13-4 record, which is an impressive 76.4% winning percentage. However, Schilling has netted bettors just over three units on the season.
When you bet on Schilling and lose, it's costing you between two or three units, which can pick away at your bankroll quicker than a stray cat can pick his way through trash.
On the upside, you only have to eat the heavy 'chalk' if you lose.
More often than not, these big name pitchers perform as expected and bettors are lined up at the window waiting to cash their winning tickets.
If you add up the 10 aces listed above, they combine for a pleasing 31.31 unit profit margin.
Maybe chalk doesn't taste so badly after all.