DIRECT FROM VEGAS
WITH NICK BOGDANOVICH
INTERLEAGUE PLAY STARTS THIS WEEKEND IN MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL
I wanted to give you a heads up about this, because one of the great things about handicapping Interleague play in MLB is handicapping the games right BEFORE the big series start.
We've seen time and time again since this began that teams start looking ahead to their regional "showdown" series a couple of days in advance. It doesn't happen to all teams, or all the time. But, it happens enough that handicappers have made money looking for this to happen. It can be particularly valuable when a big favorite gets caught looking ahead, which is most likely to happen right before those big city games.
Here's a look at the RIVALRY games that are scheduled for Friday through Saturday:
* New York Yankees at New York Mets (tied for MLB's best record last year)
* Chicago White Sox at Chicago Cubs (officially the FIRST IL game going Friday afternoon)
* LA Dodgers at LA Angels (possibly a World Series preview?)
* Cincinnati at Cleveland (always big in Ohio, and now the Tribe is contending)
* St. Louis at Detroit (not a rivalry, but a World Series rematch!)
* Texas at Houston
* San Francisco at Oakland
* Florida at Tampa Bay
* Baltimore at Washington
I can't say that Tampa Bay gets as excited about playing Florida as the Mets do about playing the Yankees. But, it's still a big deal in the local media. At the very least, bragging rights are at stake in all of those regional matchups. In some cases, there's bad blood from what's happened the past few seasons. Remember, these rivalries are a permanent part of interleague play. These teams see each other every year. The players remember, and the fans remember what happened in recent showdowns.
With all that in mind, I figured today would be a good day to go over some handicapping tips. If I waited until the weekend, you may have missed out on some great look-ahead spots. You might as well start preparing now for Interleague weekend anyway. You saw how profitable it was last year. Sharp handicappers noticed right away that the American League was dominant. The Vegas lines never caught up to that fact. Easy money!
* Be sure you're trying to find the best lookahead spots on Thursday. MLB got sneaky this year, scheduling some marquee games right before the big weekend. The New York teams are playing the Chicago teams for example. Those teams typically get up for each other, so a letdown is less likely. Still, if any team enters Thursday action on a winning streak, AND has a big rivalry game on Friday...you should be looking to go the other way on Thursday. This has been a very strong strategy in recent seasons for handicappers able to guage the intensity of teams right before a marquee series.
Also, note that there are a bunch of day games on Thursday. Many managers will rest key players on day games after a night game anyway. That's particularly likely right before a big rivalry series. Stay on top of developments in terms of the lineups for those Thursday games. You may be going against some pricey favorites who are resting key guys to save them for the weekend.
* When handicapping the weekend games, remember that the American League was DOMINANT last year. They just crushed the National League across the board. Even BAD teams in the AL were able to string together victories. Now, it's true that a National League team did win the World Series when St. Louis derailed Detroit. The general public may use that as an excuse to back the NL in a turnaround this year. Don't expect it. The best pitchers and hitters are still in the AL, at least in terms of depth. I fully expect the AL to have an edge again this year. Monitor the results this weekend to see if the AL will be in position to continue last year's advantages. Most importantly, DON'T load up on a bunch of NL teams until you see for yourself that the senior circuit is going to win some games this year.
* Remember that pitchers teams haven't seen before can be very effective in these interleague games. They may have a tricky delivery that takes a while to get used to. They may throw smoke with location in a way that overwhelms hitters who haven't seen them before. Southpaws in particular have had good success in interleague games against new opponents. Most lefties had odd deliveries that take awhile to get used to. Don't worry so much about recent stats for the pitchers. Check to see if anybody will be facing a guy for the first time.
* Remember that big crowds usually attend the rivalry games. Big crowds usually help out the offense. It adds to the on-site temperature, which causes the ball to carry better. Offenses are also particularly motivated to play 9 good innings in front of the big crowds. It's kind of ironic...but pitchers you're not familiar with will do well in interleague play because opponents haven't seen them before...but well known pitchers with strong stats will have some shaky outings just because conditions favor scoring. I know some longtime handicappers that just gave up on interleague play because of reversals like this. They couldn't ever get a grip on how things changed for these matchups. They should have looked closer, it wasn't hard to find!
* Look for bounce-backs over the weekend. Nobody wants to lose two games in a row to a cross-town or local rival. Nobody wants to get SWEPT either! One of the reasons last year was so odd in terms of the AL's dominance was that we often see choppy waters in interleague games. This year, I expect to see bounce back games in these big rivalries, but an edge to the AL over the full scope of the schedule. With that in mind, AL teams who lost on Friday may be very smart teams to take on Saturday...and those that lose on Saturday may be very smart to take on Sunday. Don't just look at pitchers and lineups this weekend. Stay on top of motivational factors as well.
* When the series are over, look for LETDOWNS next Monday and Tuesday for teams who did well. Anybody who did manage to sweep a rival will be poised for a letdown in their next series. Many teams who won two out of three will be in the same boat if they capped off a series victory with a big performance on Sunday. As I mentioned earlier, some of the best edges regarding interleague play involve the games being played immediately before and immediately afterward. Teams go back to regular league play on Monday and Tuesday, which may cause a loss of intensity in many places.