IS IT TIME TO START PLAYING FAVORITES IN MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL?
DIRECT FROM VEGAS
WITH NICK BOGDANOVICH
I'm starting to hear this question a lot when I walk around the sportsbooks here in Las Vegas. I'd have to say that I've heard it more this year than at any time in the past...even though I think SOMEBODY has asked me this question every year for quite some time now.
Here's why it's coming up so much this year:
* The lines seem smaller to the naked eye than ever before. In past years all the top teams would be very pricey favorites much of the season. Right now, MLB is still sorting out who the best teams are going to be...so there just aren't that many expensive teams on a nightly basis. Many gamblers are scared off of favorites when they see -180 and -190 all over the board. A bunch of -150's or -130's doesn't scare them as much, and they're chomping at the bit to get involved!
* We've had a few different days recently where favorites almost ran the table. Whenever this happens, wagerers figure it's a trend that means something rather than a one day fluke. Look, favorites are SUPPOSED to win in the first place, so seeing a day where almost all of them do isn't really a surprise. Remember, this sport has a six month regular season. You're bound to see that often during the year.
* Some streaking teams really have offered value as favorites lately. Milwaukee's been on fire lately, and the line just isn't adjusting fast enough. I know some guys who took Milwaukee in every game against St. Louis last week, and couldn't believe how easy that sweep was. The lines were ridiculous. The problem is...what's true in one series or for a few teams isn't necessarily true for the whole league. The Yankees have dropped more than 10 units for backers this year and they're favored almost all the time.
* The talk about oddsmakers battling "sharps" (professional wagerers) has led some to believe that the oddsmakers have "overcompensated" in their attempts to take away underdog value. Going back decades, professional gamblers have made their nut by focusing on baseball underdogs. Sportsbooks are aggressively trying to take that edge away with lower prices on favorites. Some believe they've gone too far.
* And finally...frankly, it's a dream of squares that the STUPID strategies they use will finally work! Gamblers are dreamers, and they would just love it if a simple strategy like always asking the best team to win would make them a fortune. This is a characteristic of degenerate gamblers everywhere, of every age. You've probably come across this yourself at some point in your life. You know a guy who says "they're going to kill 'em" about eight different games on the card. He goes 5-3 and breaks even, 4-4 and loses money, or 3-5 and loses big. This is why people go broke, they just can't believe that the better team can lose. Even after they go broke they STILL can't believe it happened! If they ever come into new gambling money later in life, they come back and make the same mistakes.
The key to winning money as a sports gambler is to find value. So, it is imperative to study this question even if you're skeptical. If the oddsmakers HAVE overcompensated, then you should shade more of your action to value favorites. You won't make money any more trying to force underdog plays down the bookmaker's throats.
A look at the standings should tell you that value on favorites across the board can't be much if it even exists.
* 150 favorites have to win 60% of the time to break even. A line of 150 isn't all that high in terms of what you'll see on the nightly board. Through Monday Night's games, only six teams in the majors were playing better than 60% ball. That's Atlanta, the NY Mets, Milwaukee, Boston, Cleveland, and Detroit. Only TWO teams have lost more than 60% of the time...Washington and Kansas City. If everyone's within 3-4 games of .500, how could favorites be cleaning up?
* The New York Yankees are always the most expensive team to back in baseball. I already mentioned their down 10 units this year for backers, even with a 14-16 straight up record. Two games under .500 in the standings is 10 games under .500 when you factor in the moneyline. The St. Louis Cardinals are the defending National League champions. They're 12-18 to start the season. It would be very tough for the sport as a whole to show a significant edge for favorites if two of the biggest name teams are burning money like that.
There are some examples of individual teams that have done well as favorites. I think what's happening here is that some wagerers are having great success with those teams (Milwaukee, Cleveland, Atlanta,) and thinking that "spot" success like this is somehow influencing the whole sport. It's easy to say "Now's the time to bet favorites" when you in particular are hot with teams who are winning as favorites. But that doesn't mean ALL favorites offer value.
It's not about betting favorites...it's about finding VALUE! Those teams have been offering value (a combined 60-32 this season) because the prices haven't matched reality in their cases.
The lesson? Stop looking for big trends that oversimplify how hard it is to pick winners...and start looking for TEAMS who are offering value. Sorry folks, but you didn't have to be a brain surgeon to expect improved play from Milwaukee and Cleveland this year. And, you didn't need 20/20 vision to notice it once it already started happening! Milwaukee was playing well before going 8-2 its last 10 games, as was Cleveland before going 7-3 its last 10.
Proper handicapping takes time. The general public wants to believe the fantasy that they can win without devoting that time. They want to believe that something as easy as "take favorites" or "take the best teams" or "go against bad teams" will take them down the road to riches. I saw that the first day I was in Vegas...and I'll see it every day I'm here. AIN'T GOING TO HAPPEN!