It pays to have a good defense in college football
Doug Upstone
Dating back to Perry Mason and fast-forwarding to Denny Crane of Boston Legal, its always been an asset to have a good defense. That has also been the case in winning college football games, since we have always heard the mantra, defense wins championships. The question is does a top notch defense help the sports bettor win money?
Without a doubt, it is part of the winning portfolio and in many ways overlooked more than it should be by the average bettor. Its been proven that a football game is broken down into three parts, with seven pieces within it. The breakdown is three on offense, three on defense and one for special teams. Great defensive teams provide a quandary of sorts for oddsmakers, compared to terrific offensive teams.
When the game starts, both teams fundamental goal is to score points and prevent the opposition from doing so, not exactly SportsCenter highlight material. The advantage an offense has there is no limit to the number of points they can score based on possessions or other areas like defensive touchdowns for scores and special teams finding ways to light the scoreboard. Teams with superior defenses cannot impact the score per se in the same manner since in football and all other major team sports; you cant do better than zero.
Oddsmakers have the ability from public perception to add points to certain teams, especially when the team has offense that turn numbers like Vanna White changes letters. Teams that play tremendous defense dont have the same appeal to sports bettors, unless they have potent offense. The other problem with great defense is they could pitch a shutout, but if their quarterback decides he likes throwing the pigskin to the other team as much as his own players, a 13-0 victory as a two-touchdown favorite will subtract from wagering account.
What should the sports bettor look for in a great defense? Like every lawyer, first you have to understand the laws. It rather simple to understand that if prevent the other team from scoring, your chances of winning are dramatically increased. You might be saying to yourself, Doug, I dont need to read this article to know that. And for the most part Id agree with except for the fact that college football generates billions of dollars, as does the wagering industry on football, yet the game in its most basic form is simply blocking and tackling. Do we know from week to week who is going to do that the best? I digress.
Currently, familiar names like Oklahoma, Florida, Alabama, USC, Penn State and Ohio State are among the leaders in fewest points allowed. Two teams that are also among the top group are South Florida and Nebraska. At this juncture, it might be wise to be mildly skeptical about these two squads, as the only legitimate team USF faced was Florida State, though they did hold them to seven points. Lets see how they do against Cincinnati and at Pittsburgh before we go all in on the Bulls. Nebraska has the right coach in Bo Pelini for defense, nevertheless, three home games against Sun Belt teams is not a good barometer.
Total defense is another good method to follow, but dont buy in just yet. Teams like N.C. State, Connecticut and Arizona State dot this category. Each has had their turn against meager competition and done a fairly good job against comparable teams. Waiting it out another week wont hurt to start building portfolio on these squads. Otherwise, stick with proven teams that restrict offenses.
Moving ahead, two other specific categories reflect a truer strength in this reporters often less than humble opinion, while still taking scheduling into consideration.
The YPPT or yards per point index is a wonderful gauge of defensive strength. This is based on the number of points the opposing team scores per 100 yards. Why this is superior to points allowed for example, take a look at this in-game situation. Say the Alabama offense is turnover-prone one day as six-point road favorites. They have three fumbles and interceptions in their territory and their opponent cashes them in for 17 points, gaining 80 total yards. The entire rest of the contest, Bamas opposition moves the ball for just another 120 total yards and no points. The Crimson Tides offense goes on to score 24 points and wins 24-17, covering the spread. In just looking at points surrendered, it looks like the Crimson Tides opponent that day did fairly well against them, yet in fact they held them in-check except for their own miscues and ended up with good day based statistics. In reviewing these numbers, the Sooners, Gators and Trojans are all camped out here, but others maybe not on everyones radar appear. Iowa proved just how strong they are defensively in shutting down Penn State. Ole Miss is ranked sixth in the category and was supposed to have strong offensive team; however it has been the defense that has carried them. If quarterback Jevan Snead comes around, the Rebels could roll when it comes to covering spreads.
The best situation to wager on a quality defensive club is when they are underdog. The Hawkeyes win at Penn State was ideal way to consider for wager. Their defense was able to absorb quick blow by the Nittany Lions and gradually took over the game, rendering the Jo Pas with no working options once they trailed in the game. Stellar defensive squads catching points are always worth a look.
The final area to examine is yards per play (YPP) allowed. This speaks to the constant domination of a defense. Any team allowing 4.1 yards per play or less is going to be difficult to sustain a drive against. Most teams will average about 12 possessions per contest and roughly have to travel 60-70 yards to score touchdowns. To beat a controlling defensive team like this (turnovers the unknown variable), an offense would have to put together three separate drives of 13 or more plays to score three touchdowns to give themselves an opportunity to win. Can it be done, of course it can, but betting on it consistently is like playing a six-team parlay weekly, expecting to win.
Not to be redundant, but teams coached by Bob Stoops, Pete Carroll, Urban Meyer, Mack Brown and Nick Saban are listed again, with a few you might not have thought of. North Carolina, Oregon, TCU and Mississippi have all played representative slates and have held opposing offensives to low numbers on yardage manufactured per play.
In the end, if you are going to have to take on Law and Order, you would want to have Alan Shore of Crane, Pool and Schmidt, backing you up with his slick defensive moves to make you a winner.