JACKSONVILLE +3.5 over Denver
After their big road win last week, Jacksonville looks to bring their momentum into their home opener against Denver. The Jaguars escaped Buffalo with a 13-10 last-second win last Sunday, giving Jack Del Rio his first road victory as the coach of the Jags. The Broncos outscored the Chiefs 34-24 at home last Sunday night to get an early leg up on the defending AFC West champions.
Denver received a huge boost from running back Quentin Griffin in its win, as the diminutive rusher rambled for 156 yards and scored three touchdowns in just his second career start. He is likely to find the going much tougher here, as a big part of Jacksonville's win over the Bills was its ability to stop the run. Bronco QB Jake Plummer did a solid job overall running the offense on Sunday night, but his outing will probably be best-remembered for an ill-advised left-handed pass that resulted in an interception, which KC quickly turned into 7 points. That is Jake “The Snake’s†story in a nutshell – brilliant plays mixed with some unbelievably rookie mistakes. The Jacksonville defense bent but did not break in Buffalo, allowing just 10 points, and giving its offense the chance it needed to pull out the miracle victory, and will give Denver’s offense a very stiff challenge here.
The Jags have been and will remain a run-first team to set up the passing of Leftwich. Running back Fred Taylor had trouble finding room to roam against the Bills' massive defensive line last week. Look for Del Rio and the Jags to try and re-establish Taylor's prominence on Sunday. Denver will again be tested by Taylor one week after failing to limit Kansas City's Priest Holmes, who busted loose for 151 yards and 3 TDs. Leftwich struggled prior to the decisive final drive but made the throws when he had to, converting three 4th-down opportunities.
Many are looking at these teams’ respective games last week and surmising that Denver looks like Super Bowl material, while the Jags were just plain lucky. That may even be true to some extent, but sometimes, as the saying goes, “it’s better to be lucky than goodâ€, and when good fortune smiles upon a team, it can lead to much bigger and better things. What that victory did for this young Jacksonville team can’t be overstated. This team lost three games in the final 30 seconds last year, but now could easily use the win in Buffalo as a springboard to a fast start in 2004.
As demonstrated in the PRO INFO SPORTS 2004 POWER SYSTEM e-CYCLOPEDIA, certain home underdogs off a road underdog SU win are among the strongest handicapping plays, which is the scenario we are presented with here, as we have no less than 5 systems active, all of which indicate a play ON Jacksonville. For example, in games 2-4 of the season, home dogs of more than 1 point off a non-division road SU win are 18-0-1 ATS since 1982 vs. opponents off a home game. These hosts have won 13 of 19 contests SU and covered the spread by an average of 10 points a game. Other POWER SYSTEM numbers are some of the strongest from the e-CYCLOPEDIA, as the Jags also qualify for situations that are 35-1 ATS since 1988, 27-0-1 ATS since 1990, 25-1 ATS since 1986, and 27-1-1 ATS since 1990. These figures show how strongly we can expect Jacksonville to come out here and take their game to an even higher level. Playing their home opener on a warm, muggy day with an early start for a Denver team on Mountain Time certainly can’t hurt either, as we like the Jags chances here to pull out the SU win in an upset.